Wall Street analysts are too bullish on tech stocks. On Friday's tech wrack day, some of them rush to raise price targets of the falling mega tech stocks. They are doing these by ignoring market is in a serious down trend, worsening Covid-19 pandemic and pre and post election uncertainties. Uncertainty about COVID-19 is causing firms to pull their forecasts for quarterly results. These companies include 3M (MMM) , Caterpillar(CAT) and Apple (AAPL) while FaceBook (FB) warns Of "Significant Uncertainty" ahead. What makes these analysts so certain about the future?
Even after the recent sharp drop, the Forward PE ratios on these big techs (AMZN 72, AAPL 29.71, FB 27.42, GOOG 27.77, MSFT 27.96, NVDA 46.99, TSLA 115.27, TWTR 68.81) are still way over the projected S&P 500 Forward PE of 24.19 (this is already high since the normal PE through out history is about 15-17). After 7 months of expansion, this may be the time for the PE expansion to stop and start to shrink back to normal. Also even after the recent big pull back, the above mentioned stock still up a lot this year with AAPL +48.29%, AMZN +64.31%,FB +28.19%,GOOG +21.24%, MSFT +28.39%, NVDA+113.07%,TSLA +363.80% and TWTR +29.05%. These high valuations in big cap stocks may force investors to diversify from growth stocks to value stocks.
Many cloud and work at home stocks such as OSTK, FSLY, WDAY and DOCU are down 56%, 54%, 39% and 30% respectively from there highs. And they are still up 696%, 216%,28% and 173% this year. These companies are not even making money yet. Their prices are discounting a lot of good news. For people who like to chase these high flying stocks, be ready for big losses when they come down.
Meanwhile, many European countries are on lockdowns and the United States recorded 99321 virus infections on Friday as scientists warn latest surge is just beginning. Virus experts are expecting big increase of infections and deaths in the coming weeks as they expect what is happening in Europe is coming to in this county with 3 weeks delay. The economy is going to dip again. As far as the presidential election is concern, even though polls indicate Biden is leading trump, but the general consensus is votes are going to be tight and uncertainty is going to create chaos.
Dow is now trying to hold at its long term trend line 200 day moving average support at 26200 on Friday, more market down turn is likely if this level is broken and the next level of support is 25000. Further support supports are Fibonacci levels at 23667, 22361 and 18132 as seen in the weekly chart. Technically, after trending down for 3 weeks, the US stock market is oversold and is looking for good news to bounce. Good news is hard to find now, but dip buyers can't stand not to buy, and the market may bounce on Monday. However, US stock market trend is down, strategy is sell on rallies or when Dow 26200 is broken.
Following are Friday's analyst actions for major tech stocks:
Amazon (AMZN 3036.15)
Monness Crespi & Hardt reiterated Buy, raise price target from 3750 to 4000.
Credit Suisse reiterated outperform, price target 3750.
Apple (AAPL 108.86)
Raymond James raises price target from 120 to 140.
D.A davidson raises price target from 120 to 132.
FaceBook (FB 263.11)
Monness Crespi &Hardt raises price target from 290 to 350.
Alphabet (GOOG 1621.01)
KeyBanc mai tains Overweight, price target 1970.
Morgan Stanley maintain Overwight, price target 1880.
Twitter (TWTR 41.36)
Pivotal Reseach reiterated Buy, price target raised from 59.75 to 64.
华尔街分析师对科技股过于乐观。上周五是科技大跌的一日，其中一些人却急于提高大型科技股的价格目标。他们忽略了市场正处于严重的下跌趋势，加剧的Covid-19大流行以及选举前后的不确定性。COVID-19的不确定性正在导致企业取消对下季度业绩的预测。这些公司包括3M（MMM），Caterpillar（CAT）和Apple（AAPL），而FaceBook（FB）则警告将来存在“重大不确定性”。是什么让这些分析师对未来如此确定而对科技股如此的乐观的？
即使在最近大幅下跌之后，这些大型科技公司（AMZN 72，AAPL 29.71，FB 27.42，GOOG 27.77，MSFT 27.96，NVDA 46.99，TSLA 115.27，TWTR 68.81）的前瞻PE比率仍然超出了预期的标准普尔500前瞻PE 24.19（这已经很高，因为在整个历史中正常的PE约为15-17）。经过7个月的扩展，这可能是停止PE扩展并开始恢复正常的时候了。即使在最近的大幅回调之后，上述股票今年仍然上涨了很多，AAPL + 48.29％，AMZN + 64.31％，FB + 28.19％，GOOG + 21.24％，MSFT + 28.39％，NVDA + 113.07％， TSLA + 363.80％和TWTR + 29.05％。
另外，OSTK，FSLY，WDAY和DOCU等许多云和家居股票分别从最高点下跌了56％，54％，39％和30％。这些股票今年仍然分别上升了696％，216％，28％和173％。这些公司甚至还没有赚钱。他们的价格已经预期了很多好消息。对于喜欢追逐这些股票的人，当它们下跌时要做好大笔损失的准备。
科技股的高估值可能迫使投资者从成长型股票分散到价值型股票而导致科技股下跌。
现在，许多欧洲国家已处于封锁状态，而周五美国则记录了99321病毒感染，科学家警告最新的热潮才刚刚开始。病毒专家预计在未来几周内感染和死亡人数将大大增加，因为他们预计欧洲般的的疫情发展将在3周后在美国发生。经济将再次下滑。尽管民意调查显示拜登在选举中领先特朗普，但普遍的共识是票数会很接近，谁真正当选要一段时间才能确定。这种不确定性将造成社会混乱。
道琼斯指数周五试图维持在其长期趋势线200日移动均线支撑位26200水平之上，如果跌穿该水平，市场将进一步下跌，下一支撑位为25000。再下面的支撑位是斐波那契水平23667 ，22361和18132， 这些都在周线图上可以看到。从技术上讲，在下跌了3周后，美国股市已达超卖，并且正在寻找好消息反弹。以现在情况看来，有好消息的机会不大， 但逢低买入者仍会忍不住进场，所以周一有可能会反弹。不过，美股趋势看跌，策略是反弹或跌穿道指26200时卖出。
以下是周五分析师对主要技术股的行动：
亚马逊（AMZN 3036.15）
Monness Crespi＆Hardt重申买入评级，将目标价从3750上调至4000。
瑞士信贷重申优于大市的评级，目标价为3750。
苹果（AAPL 108.86）
雷蒙德·詹姆斯（Raymond James）将目标价格从120提高至140。
戴维森 （D.A davidson ）将目标价从120提高至132。
脸书（FB 263.11）
Monness Crespi＆Hardt将目标价格从290提高至350。
Alphabet（GOOG 1621.01）
KeyBanc维持加重评级，1970价格目标。
摩根士丹利维持加重评级，价目标价为1880。
推特（TWTR 41.36）
Pivotal Reseach重申买入评级，目标价从59.75上调至64。
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