The Dow ($indu), S&P500($spx), Nasdaq 100($ ndx)and Russell 2000(IWM) have now all reached all time highs after reacting to bullish news such as Covid-19 Vaccines to be available soon, Biden most likely will be the next president, Q3 earnings are mostly positive and dovish former Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen is selected as the the person to head the US Treasury. Good news has all discounted. However, investors have been ignoring surging new Covid-19 cases and economic stimulus is not likely this year both likely hurt the economy. Meanwhile, the following 3 reliable market indicators are calling for imminent market correction. They are CNN's Fear & Greed Indicator, Index Put Call Ratio ($CPC) and Equity Put Call Ratio ($CPCE). These indicators all points to extreme bullishness and the market will likely cool off in the near term. The first two downside targets are 20 day moving average 3531 and 50 day moving average 3446, they repreesent 2.8% and 5.2% down respectively.
The CNN Fear & Greed Indicator is at 92 today, the second most extreme greed level since January this year. This extreme level usually indicates a stock market correction is imminent.
道琼斯指数($indu),标准普尔500指数($spx),纳斯达克100($ndx)和罗素2000 (IWM)在一系列利好消息做出反应后,现在都已创下了历史新高。这些利好消息是Covid-19疫苗将面世,拜登很可能将成为下一任总统,第三季度的财报大多为正面及鸽派前美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦被选为下届财政部长。利好已完全备反影了。 然而,投资者一直无视新的Covid-19案件及死亡人数激增和今年不太可能有经济刺激措施出台,两者都会损害经济。 另外,以下3个可靠的市场指标均显示市场修正在即。 它们是CNN的“恐惧与贪婪”指标,指数看跌及看涨期权比率($ CPC)和股票看跌及看涨期权比率($ CPCE)。 这些指标都表明极端看涨情绪,短期市场可能会降温。前两个下行目标是20日移动平均线3531和50日移动平均线3446,它们分别代表下跌2.8%和5.2%。
CNN恐惧与贪婪指标今天为92,是自今年一月以来第二高的极端贪婪水平。 这种极端水平通常显示股市调整即将来临。
No comments:
Post a Comment