It Is Time For UVXY To Shine 是UVXY发光的时候了

Today, the Dow,  S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000 closed down 1.75%, 2.45%, 3.52% and 3.70% respectively. The market sell off is triggered by 10 year treasury note yield surges above 1.5% and investors are selling growth stocks aggressively. After hitting 15.7 in January.  UVXY dropped to historical low of 8.24 yesterday in nearly a month of continuous selling.  The recent extreme bullish sentiment on the stock market is destine to bring in big market sell off. Sure, enough, the stock market tumble big and the fear gauge VIX ETF UVXY surged over 23.55% to 10.23 today.  UVXY's move today is the biggest move since late January while volume is the highest in its trading history.  This should definitely bring in more upside momentum. UVXY may have a few more day of upside surge. Its next target is January high at 15.37. It is time for UVXY to shine! However, UVXY is only for short term trading ( a few day to 2 to 3 weeks), when the fear is still there, never hold for long term!

今天，道指，标准普尔500指数，纳斯达克综合指数和罗素2000指数分别下跌了1.75％，2.45％，3.52％和3.70％。 市场的抛售是由10年期美国国债收益率飙升至1.5％以上所触发的。投资者在积极抛售成长型股票因为这种股票最怕是通胀及利率双双走高。恐慌指标VIX 的ETF UVXY在一月份曾经升至15.37， 在连续近一个月的被抛售后，UVXY昨日跌至8.24的历史低点。 近来投资人对股市的极端乐观情绪注定会导致大盘抛售的。 的确，股市今天暴跌，UVXY飙升23.55％至10.23。 UVXY今天的升幅是自1月下旬以来最大的，而交易量则是有史以来的最高单日记录。 这肯定会带来更多的上涨动力。 UVXY可能还有几天的上涨空间。 它的下一个上涨目标是一月高点15.37。UVXY是时候发光了！ 但是，UVXY仅用于短期交易（几天到两三周），当恐惧仍然存在时，千万不要长期持有！

Market Selling Starts, How Far Will It Drop To? 市场抛售开始，会跌到那里？

Tumbling Treasury prices  drive 10 year yield above the psychological 1.5% level (which happens to be the yield for S&P500) triggers big sell offs in techs and all the major stock market indexes today. Other negative triggers include: Great earnings report from NVDA yesterday triggered a sell on news event as NVDA is now down over 7%. And the popular buy on dips stock TSLA is now down over 6%. The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite has dropped below its 50 day moving average support for the second time. It also formed a very bearish Head and Shoulder Top pattern. They both are sell signals. The Nasdaq is now down 6.9% from all time high. What level will the Nasdaq go down to? For a 10% drop from top, it will be 12757 and for a 15% drop, it will be the 12049 level.

不断下跌的美国国债价格使10年期国债收益率今天升至1.5％的心理水平之上（碰巧是标准普尔500指数的股息率）引发了今日科技股和所有主要股市指数的大幅抛售。 其他不利因素包括：NVDA昨天的出色财报告却触发了好消息后的抛售，NVDA现在下跌7％以上。 最受欢迎的逢低买入股票TSLA现在下跌了6％以上。 高科技股纳斯达克综合指数第二次跌破它的50天移动均线支撑位13286。 它还形成了非常看跌的头肩顶图形。 这些都是市场的卖出信号。 纳斯达克将跌至什么水平？ 如果从顶部下跌10％，它将是12757水平，至于下降15％，它将是12049水平。现在 纳斯达克指数从历史高点下跌了6.9％。

Why ARKK Is A Sell 为甚么要卖出ARKK

ARKK is an extreme popular ETF runs by Cathie Wood. ARKK is up 326% since March 2020 and up 152% in the last 12 months. In the same periods, the bench mark S&P 500 index is up only 79% and 20% respectively. Investors follow results, its a no brainer why ARKK is so popular. The following is a description of the ETF.

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK 138.32)

The investment seeks long-term growth of capital. The fund is an actively-managed exchange-traded fund ("ETF") that will invest under normal circumstances primarily (at least 65% of its assets) in domestic and foreign equity securities of companies that are relevant to the fund's investment theme of disruptive innovation. Its investments in foreign equity securities will be in both developed and emerging markets. It may invest in foreign securities (including investments in American Depositary Receipts ("ADRs") and Global Depositary Receipts ("GDRs")) and securities listed on local foreign exchanges. The fund is non-diversified.

The fund's holding include: TSLA, ROKU, SQ, TDOC, NVTA, Z, SPOT, PRLB, PSTG, EDIT, BIDU, NTLA,EXAS, TWLO, IOVA, TWST, DOCU, MTLS,PYPL, TREE, TWOU, PD, ICE, ZM, VCYT, PACB, IRDM, MCRB, SE, SPLK, SNPS, PINS, NSTG, TXG, HUYA, CERS, SYRS, NVS, REGN, FATE, ONVO.

I have gone through all the above stocks ARKW is holding and here are what I found that are alarming and are reasons to sell. 

1. ARKK has broken below its 50 day moving average and is in a down trend.

2. Out of the 41 stocks, there are 23 stocks that are trading below their 50 day moving average. This means these 23 stocks are in down trends.

3. 19 stocks don't have Forward PE, meaning they are not making money yet. For those stocks with PE, the average PE is 752! Take away the most outrage PE of 9782, the average PE is still 351! The Forward PE for S&P 500 is only around 40 and is already considered very high.

4. There are 24 stocks that gain 100% in the last 12 months. 11 of these stocks gain over 200%, 6 gain over 300%, 3 gain over 400%, 1 gain over 800%. The 12 month gain for S&P 500 is only 20%. 

5. Since Cathie Wood is so popular around individual investors, what ever she buy these investors will follow. These indiscriminate purchases sure help to artificially push up stocks and added emotional premium to a certain degree. 

6. ARKK's top holding is TSLA and it has been targeted to sell along with other big cap tech stocks. TSLA trend is down since it has solidly broken below its 50 day moving average. 

7. The holdings in ARKK are high growth stocks. During time of inflation and increasing interest rate, growth stock are likely to be sold in favor of valued and low PE stocks. 

8. ARKK was established at the right time when investors are chasing momentum regardless of fundamentals. As old saying says: Timing makes heroes. That time is over and 2021 will likely be the year these high flyers will get kill as PE gets normalized. 

9. Following are 41 charts for your references:

ARKK是凯蒂·伍德（Cathie Wood）经营的一种极受欢迎的ETF。自2020年3月以来，ARKK上涨了326％，而过去12个月上涨了152％。同期，标普500指数仅分别上涨79％和20％。投资者关注结果，这样的好回报就是为什么ARKK如此受欢迎的原因。以下是ARKK的说明。

ARK创新ETF（ARKK 138.32）

该投资寻求资本的长期增长。该基金是一种积极管理的交易所买卖基金（“ ETF”），在正常情况下将主要（至少占其资产的65％）投资于与该基金的创新性投资主题相关的公司的国内外股票证券。它对外国股票证券的投资将同时在发达和新兴市场。它可能投资于外国证券（包括对美国存托凭证（“ ADR”）和全球存托凭证（“ GDR”）的投资）以及在当地外汇交易所上市的证券。该基金是非多元化的。

基金持有的股票包括：TSLA，ROKU，SQ，TDOC，NVTA，Z，SPOT，PRLB，PSTG，EDIT，BIDU，NTLA，EXAS，TWLO，IOVA，TWST，DOCU，MTLS，PYPL，TREE，TWOU，PD，ICE ，ZM，VCYT，PACB，IRDM，MCRB，SE，SPLK，SNPS，PINS，NSTG，TXG，HUYA，CERS，SYRS，NVS，REGN，FATE，ONVO。

我查阅了ARKK持有的上述所有股票，下面就是我发现的令人震惊的情况，也是该卖出ARKK的原因。

1. ARKK已跌破其50天移动平均线，并处于下跌趋势中。

2.在41只股票中，有23只股票的交易价格已低于它们的50天移动平均线。这意味着这23只股票已在下跌趋势。

3. 19只股票没有前瞻市盈率，这意味着它们还没有赚钱。对于拥有PE的股票来说，平均PE是752！拿走9782最高的PE，平均PE仍然是351！标普500的前瞻PE仅为40左右，已经被认为很高了。

4.有24只股票在过去12个月上涨了100％。其中11只股票的涨幅超过200％，6只股票的涨幅超过300％，3只股票的涨幅超过400％，1只股票的涨幅超过800％。标普500指数12个月涨幅仅为20％。

5.由于凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）在个人投资者中非常受欢迎，因此这些投资者也跟进她买入的股票。这些不加选择的购买肯定有助于推动股票上升而加进了一定程度的情绪溢价。

6. ARKK的最大持股是TSLA，它最近与其他大型科技股一样是被抛售的目标。 TSLA趋势已稳固地跌破50天移动平均线，因此下跌趋势已成。这必然会拖累ARKK。

7. ARKK持有的股票都是高增长股票。在通货膨胀和利率上升期间，增长型股票可能会被抛售，而偏向买入价值合理和低PE股票。

8. ARKK因成立合时而成功。那时是无论基本面如何，投资者都因动力而追赶势头的时候。俗话说：时势造英雄。这段时间已经过去，随着PE的正常化，这些升得多的股票可能会在2021年大跌。

9. 下面是所有41只股票的图表以供参考：

Both Stock Market And Bitcoin Are Ready To Bounce 股市及比特币都准备反弹

 The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite had a quick drop of 8.26% from all time high to today's low during the last 6 days. This is quite a sharp drop and is consider as a panic selloff and it is likely to reverse in the short term. The main key for the Nasdaq Composite to be able to reverse up is if it can maintain above its 50 day moving average level at 13242 and today's low at 13000. Federal Reserve chairman just finished his testimony in congress and is not concern about inflation at this time calms markets. The House budget committee has approved a $1.9 trillions stimulus plan Monday and is ready to vote to pass by the end of this week also should support markets near term. The Nasdaq Composite may bounce towards its 20 day moving average at 13706. Since the sharp drops in the past two days are quite a scare for investors, the short term bounce does not guarantee a continue rally. I think the strategy for the stock market now is sell on rallies.

Falling in sync with the stock market, Bitcoin dropped 23% from its all time high of $58304 to a low of $44845 in the last 3 days. Knowing the volatility of Bitcoin,  this is considered normal. So the supports are now $47000, $46000 and $45000 and its resistances are $49000, $52000 and $54000. it may take some time for it to go back up to historical high $58304 again, but the sharp correction may attract even more buyers into Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a fantastic short term trading vehicle if you are fast enough. 

纳斯达克综合指数在过去6天中从历史高点迅速下跌至今天的低点，跌幅为8.26％。这是一个相当大的下跌，可说是恐慌性的抛售，但短期内可能会反转向上。纳斯达克综合指数能够反转的主要关键是能否维持在其50日移动平均线水平13242和今天的低点13000上方。美联储主席刚刚在国会上作了证词，他并不担心通货膨胀。市场因而能够稳定下来。众议院预算委员会周一已通过了一项1.9万亿美元的刺激计划，并准备在本周末在众医院投票通过，这也应该是短期内支持市场。纳斯达克综合指数可能会反弹到它的20天移动均线13706水平。由于过去两天的大幅下跌对投资者来说是相当大的惊吓，因此短期反弹并不能保证持续反弹。我认为目前股市的策略应该是逢高卖出。

与股市同步，比特币在过去三天里从历史最高点58304美元下跌23％至今天低点44845美元。知道比特币的波动性，这是正常的表现。现在支撑位分别为47000美元，46000美元和45000美元，阻力位为49000美元，52000美元和54000美元。它可能需要一段时间才能再次回到历史高位58304美元，但急剧的修正可能会吸引更多的买家购买比特币。如果您足够快的话，比特币是一个很棒的短期交易产品。

Opportunities To Trade For Profit Now 现在可交易获利的机会

Life is full of good opportunities and we are right at one now. I am talking about opportunity to make money and this a perfect time for making money in speculative trading. The bubbly stock market, the validation and fast adaptation of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies investments, the short squeeze phenomenon causes daily multi-hundred percent appreciation of stocks, and the still very low interest rate that destine to rise fast due to inflation. However, in order to trade successfully, you need to equip yourself with market knowledge, technical and fundamental analysis skills, trading skills and the right trading mentality.  It will definitely helps if you are also fluent in short selling, options and ETFs. All the above will allow you to exercise you trading flexibility at will. 

Bubbly Stock Market

The S&P 500 has risen from 2020 March low of 2192 to Friday's close of 3907, a huge 78% increase in 11 months. This is the largest 11 month gain since a 46% yearly gain in 1933.  The 78% rise in the past 11 months definitely dwarfed the average S&P 500 yearly return of 7% throughout history and is not nomal.   This comparison and numerous other metrics such as S&P 500 has the 3rd highest PE in history, highest Buffet Indicator (whole stock market value/GDP), highest margin debt level, extreme low interest rate that is destine to rise and the very low Volatility Index (VIX) and stock Put/Call ratio indicating extreme bullish sentiment all are calling for a sharp market correction to come. It is not the time to buy and hold stocks  at this point. It is the time to trade and it is a opportunity to make big money in betting on market down turn at the right time.  I think the right time is fast approaching.  UVXY, TZA, SQQQ and FNGD are good vehicles to participate on the market down turn. These are only suggested ETFs, you still need to time the entries and exits.

Bitcoin and Crypto Currencies

With a 200% annual appreciation in Bitcoin during the past 10 years sure catch everyone by surprise. With Bitcoin on the verge of breaking above $60,000, there are still many skeptics out there and that is why it is so bullish for Bitcoin.  Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are the new investment trend, the critics just don't see it.  The rise is just the beginning, as billionaires, hedge funds, mutual funds and corporations are just starting to warm up to the idea and many will be force to get in as the adaptation of Bitcoin accelerates. With about 18.63 millions of Bitcoins in circulation currently and a life time limit of only 21 millions, the supply and demand factor alone should drive Bitcoin price much higher.  I do believe that Bitcoin is to replace Gold as hedge against risks. Bitcoin's capitalization is around $1 trillion and Gold is 10 trillions,  Bitcoin price still has a lot of room to grow. Bitcoin price can reach $600,000 if Bitcoin take the place of gold. For this year,  projected Bitcoin price ranges from $100,000 to $300,000. Buy on dips is the way to play Bitcoin. Ways to participate in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in the stock market are GBTC, CAN, MARA, RIOT, MOGO, BTBT, SI, MSTR, PYPL, SQ, OSTK and BRPHF.   The above are only suggestions, you still need to time the entries and exits. You may also open accounts for trading crypto currencies directly with crypto currency exchanges such as Coinbase, Binance, Kraken, Bittrex....etc. 

Short Squeeze Phenomenon

It is generally known that if the short interest of a stock is high and the share float is small, any positive news will cause a short squeeze and drive stock surging higher. The recent Game Stop (GME) and AMC Entertainment short squeeze fiascos drove GME and AMC stock surged 2703% and 966% higher respectively from January 2021 low to January 27, 2021 high. Of course, these extremes cannot be achieved without the ignorance of many retail investors.  The aftermaths are that there are many big winners and big losers and we need to navigate with caution and hopefully land on the winner side.  After what happened on GME and AMC, it becomes customary for investors to look for high shorts and low float stock to trade. Nowadays, there's no lack of daily multi-hundred percent stock movers each day. There are plenty of opportunities for knowledgeable and skillful traders to make a killing for the short term. I think go with wisely and carefully chosen daily big movers to trade for the short term (1 to 3 days) is highly profitable.   I also believe small biotech with new drug potentials are the safest in this market environment.  Here are a few biotech short squeeze potentials: SRNE, CLGN, AVXL, SAVA and CLVS. The above are only suggestions, you still need to time the entries and exits.

Long Term US Treasury Is Bearish

With Federal Reserve keep pumping money into the economy, the $1.9 trillions economic stimulus plan expected to be approved soon by congress and the roll outs of virus vaccines, the economy is expected to heat up. Better economic growth means higher inflation and interest rate. High inflation and interest rate means lower treasury bond prices. So it should be profitable to short treasuries. One way to have the same effect without shorting is by buying TBT (the ETF that reflects 2x performance of the reverse of the 20+ year treasuries ).  The above is only suggestion, you still need to time the entries and exits.

人生充满了美好的机会，而我们现在正处在一个时刻。我说的是赚钱的机会，这是在投机交易中赚钱的绝佳时机。活跃的股票市场，比特币和加密货币投资的确认和快速适应，短暂的挤压现象导致股票每日升值数百％，并且由于通货膨胀，仍然非常低的利率决定快速上升。但是，为了成功进行交易，您需要掌握市场知识，技术和基本面分析，交易技巧以及正确的交易心态。如果您还精通卖空，期权和ETF，那肯定会有所帮助。以上所有内容将使您可以随意行使交易灵活性。

 泡沫性的股票市场

标准普尔500指数已从2020年3月的低点2192点上涨至周五的收盘价3907点，在11个月中大幅上涨了78％。这是自1933年以来的46％的年度增长以来最大的11个月增长。过去11个月中的78％增长无疑使标准普尔500指数平均7％的历史年度回报率相形见拙，而且并非正常。这种不正常以及其他许多指标，例如标准普尔500指数达到历史上第三最高的市盈率，最高的巴菲特指表(整体股市价值/GDP），最高的保证金债务水平，必然上升的超低利率以及显示看涨情绪高涨的极低的波动指数（VIX）和看跌/看涨期权比例都是市场大幅调整的先兆。现在不是时候购买和持有股票而是短线交易的时候。在正确的时间押注市场下跌将是赚大利润的机会。我认为合适的时机即将到来。 UVXY，TZA，SQQQ和FNGD是参与下跌市场的好工具。这些都只是提议，您仍需选择入场及出场价格与时间。

比特币和加密货币

在过去10年中，比特币的年升值幅度为200％，这肯定会让所有人感到惊讶。随着比特币即将突破60,000美元水平却仍然有很多怀疑者，这就是为什么对比特币如此看好的原因。比特币和加密货币是极具潜力的新兴投资，批评者只是看不到它好处。比特币的上升还只是个开始，因为亿万富翁，对冲基金，共同基金和企业才刚刚开始接受这一想法，随着对比特币的适应加速，许多人将被迫买入。当前有大约1863万比特币在流通，总数量限制在2100万个，仅凭供求因素就可以把比特币价格推高很多。我确实相信比特币将取代黄金来对冲风险。比特币的市值约为1万亿美元，黄金为10万亿美元，如且看来比特币的价格仍有很大的增长空间。如果比特币真的代替黄金，比特币的价格可以达到60万美元一个。今年，预计的比特币价格从100,000美元到300,000美元不等。逢低买入是现在玩比特币的方式。在股票市场上参与比特币和加密货币的方式有GBTC，CAN，MARA，RIOT，MOGO，BTBT，SI，MSTR，PYPL，SQ, OSTK和BRPHF。这些都只是提议，您仍需选择入场及出场价格与时间。您也可以直接通过Coinbase，Binance，Kraken，Bittrex等加密货币交易所开设交易加密货币的帐户来加以加密货币。

股票的逼空现象 

众所周知，如果股票的空头头寸很高，而股票的流通量很小，那么任何利好消息都会导致空头挤压并推动股票大幅上涨。从2021年1月的低点到2021年1月27日的高点，最近的Game Stop（GME）和AMC Entertainment的空头挤压导致GME和AMC的股票分别上涨了2703％和966％。当然，如果没有许多散户投资者的无知，就不可能实现这些极端。结果是有许多大赢家和大输家，我们需要谨慎行事，并希望落在赢家一方。在GME和AMC的事情发生之后，投资者习惯于寻找高空头和低流通量股票进行交易。如今，每天不乏百分之几百上涨的股票。知识渊博且炒股技能娴熟的交易者有大量机会在短期内获大利润。我认为，明智且精心选择的每日波动大的股票进行短期（1至3天）交易是非常有利可图的。我还相信，在这种市场环境下，具有新药潜力的小型生物技术是最安全及大涨潜力最大的。以下是一些生物技术领域的空头挤压潜力股：SRNE，CLGN，AVXL，SAVA和CLVS。这些都只是提议，您仍需选择入场及出场价格与时间。

长期美国国债看跌

随着美联储（Fed）继续向经济注入资金，预计国会将很快批准1.9万亿美元的经济刺激计划，以及病毒疫苗的推出，预计经济将升温。 好的经济增长意味着高的通货膨胀率和利率。 高通胀和高利率意味着国债价格走跌。 因此，卖空国债应该有利可图。 在没有做空的情况下达到相同效果的一种方法是购买TBT（反映20年以上国债反向的2倍表现的ETF）。这只是提议，您仍需选择入场及出场价格与时间。

Warning: Sector Leaders Are Being Sold 警告：板块龙头股正在被抛售

Investors Business Daily has a indicator called Accumulation/Distribution Rating that tracks the relative degree of institutional buying (accumulation) and selling (distribution) over the last 13 weeks in a particular stock. The rating ranges from E to A, A means heavy buying while E means heavy selling, C and below indicates institutions selling while above indicates institution buying. With this in mind, following are ratings for leading stocks in different sectors with ratings at C or lower:

Symbols    Accumulation/Distribution

FB            E

QCOM    E

MCD       E

AMT       E

PG          D-

BMY      D-

UNH      D-

KO         D-  

AAPL    D

WMT    D

ADBE    D

HON      D

MRK     D+

VZ         D+

HD        C-

V           C-

IBM       C-

NFLX   C-

CMCSA C-

COST    C

Of the 20 stocks above, 15 are trading below their 50 day moving averages and their trends are down. These stocks are FB, QCOM, PG, BMY, UNH, KO, AAPL, WMT, ADBE, HON, MRK, VZ, V, IBM, and COST. The weakness of these stocks increase the old of market correction. 

投资者商业日报（Investors Business Daily）有一个指标，称为累积/分发评级，该指标跟踪过去13周内特定股票在机构的买入（累积）和卖出（分配）的相对程度。评级范围从E到A，A显示强力买入而E则是强烈卖出，C及以下表示机构卖出，而高于C则表示机构买入。以下是评分在C或以下的不同行业的龙头股票：

符号            累积/分发

FB                E 

QCOM         E 

MCD            E

AMT            E

PG                D-

BMY            D-

UNH            D-

KO               D- 

AAPL          D 

WMT           D

ADBE         D 

HON           D

MRK           D+

VZ              D+

HD              C-

V                C-

IBM            C- 

NFLX         C- 

CMCSA      C-

COST         C

以上 20只的股票中，有15只交易价格低于50天移动平均线，显示趋势下降。这些股票是FB, QCOM, PG, BMY, UNH, KO, AAPL, WMT, ADBE, HON, MRK, VZ, V, IBM, 和 COST。这些股票的弱势增加了市场下调的风险。