Expect A Bounce, Then Sell Off Again.期待反弹，然后再次抛售

 Last week's sell off drove the Nasdaq Composite to go below my downside target of 14000 estimated on my January 14 blog (https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2022/01/how-low-can-us-stock-market-go.html), and is trading around 13369 now. The Nasdaq is now down 17.5% from its all time high of 16212 level. The Nasdaq trend is definitely down as it has dropped below it's 20,50,100 and 200 day moving averages. However, the CCI indicator is at -207 (a very oversold level)  this indicator is pointing to  a likely near term bounce.  Downtrend will likely return after a brief bounce. A Weekly chart with Fibonacci lines on it points to next down side levels, 38.2% retracement level at 12522 and 50% retracement level at 11382. These are retracements for the 9581 point 144.5% gain from 2020 march low to all time high. These level represent a 23% and 30% down from all time high. So expect a strong bounce and then sell off again towards next retracement levels.

上周的抛售推动纳斯达克综合指数跌破我在 1 月 14 日博客上估计的下行目标 14000 (https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2022/01/how-low-can-us-stock-market-go.html)，现在交易在 13369 附近。纳斯达克指数目前较其历史高点 16212 点下跌 17.5%。纳斯达克趋势肯定下跌，因为它已跌破 20,50,100 和 200 日移动平均线。 然而，CCI 指标处于-207（非常超卖的水平），该指标表明近期可能反弹。短暂反弹后，下降趋势可能会回归。带有斐波那契线的周线图指向下面的下行目标，12522 处的 38.2% 回撤位和 11382 处的 50% 回撤位。这些是从 2020 年 3 月低点到历史高点， 9581 点 144.5%涨幅 的回撤位。这些水平比历史最高水平分别为下降 23% 和 30%。因此，期待强劲反弹，然后再次抛售至下一个回撤位。