Stock Market Trend Is Down, Sell On Rallies 股市趋势下跌，逢高卖出

This morning, the Nasdaq fell to near its November and December lows of 14931 and14860 and rebounded , this kind of reaction is understandable. After a sharp drop in the last 2 days, even if it rebounds 50% of its recent losses is still consider normal.  However, the Nasdaq trend is now down as it is now below its 20,50 and 100 day moving averages, strategy for now is to sell on rallies. This morning's rebound is a weak rebound, and it won't be a surprise if the Nasdaq retests the bottom at 14860 again. 

During  the past two years of  virus pandemic, U.S. stocks have repeatedly setting new highs and have pushed  many stocks to  overvaluation is the market's basic problem. And now, the odds of the Fed raising interest rates in March has jumped to 70%, it is definitely a negative for stocks. In addition, the infection of the Omicron virus in the United States is accelerating, and China is closing its cities and ports, these will likely place drag to the global economy. 

Besides of their over-valuation, most mega tech stock charts also look terrible and their trends are down.What makes matter worse is investors will likely trim their holdings on these stocks and rotate into value stocks.  It is likely that tech stocks will continue to correct. The Nasdaq level to pay attention to is 14,860, if it falls below, the next down side target will be the 200-day moving average at 14,672. Nasdaq resistance is the 100 day moving average level at 15262.

今早，纳斯达克指数跌至11月和12月低点14931和14860附近并反弹，这种反应是可以理解的。在过去两天的大幅下跌后，即使反弹并收复最近损失的 50% 仍然被是正常的。然而，纳斯达克的趋势现在正在下跌，因为它现在低于其 20,50 和 100 天移动平均线。所以目前的策略是逢高卖出。今早的反弹是弱势反弹，纳斯达克再次下探14860点也不足为奇。

在过去两年的病毒大流行中，美股屡屡创新高，将许多股票推高到估值过高是市场的基本问题。而现在，美联储3月份加息的几率已经跃升至70%，对于股市来说绝对是利空的。此外，美国欧微米病毒感染加速，中国关闭城市和港口，这些都肯定对全球经济造成拖累。

除了估值过高之外，大多数大型科技股的图表看起来也很糟糕，而且它们的趋势正在下降。更糟糕的是，投资者可能会削减对这些股票的持有量并转向投到价值股。科技股继续下跌修正的机会大。纳指的关注水平是14,860，若然跌破，下一个下行目标为200日均线14,672。纳斯达克阻力位在 100 日均线 15262。