In 2021, the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 index was up 27% during 2021. This big gain stopped investors from taking profit due to fear of paying capital gain tax in the new year supported tech stocks. On top of this Institutions ganged up to drive stock higher near end of year in purpose so that they can report better yearly result was another factor causing 2021's year end rally. Then tech stocks got lucky yesterday (the first trading day of 2022), TSLA's strong vehicle delivery numbers drove tech stock prices even higher. The new year profit taking on tech stocks got delayed by one day as heavy selling on them happened today. The decline in technology stocks will likely due to overvaluation. Overvalued stocks will eventually fall back sharply. Obvious examples are some popular stocks from 2020 to 2021, such as PTON, TDOC, ZM, PLTR and DOCU. They have fallen by 81%, 71%, 71%, 60% and 58% respectively from their highs. Although many investors have no experience in a bear market, they should learn from the performances of the stocks listed above and be fearful. Even though mega tech stocks should not drop as much as those stocks. Tech stock sell off will likely continue due the following factors:
1. The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) has formed a bearish engulfing chart pattern today as today's loss is more than yesterday's gain. This reversal pattern should lead to more weakness. It may go down to previous low at 15508 initially. If the situation is bad, it may go down to challenge the 14869 level of the 200-day moving average.
2. PEG for mega tech stocks are uncomfortably high (TSLA 5.33, NVDA 2.30, MSFT 2.29, AAPL 2.04, AMZN 1.82) as fair value for PEG is 1 and some popular stocks can command 1.3 during normal time. These stocks can drop quite a bit if valuations are readjusted back to normal.
3. The $3 trillion capitalization price for AAPL is at around $182 will likely be the top for the near term and serves as major psychological resistance. A 2.04 PEG ratio is not a good bargain as the reasonable ratio is 1 to 1.5.
4. Price Charts for AMZN, GOOG, FB, MSFT, NVDA and NFLX are looking ugly and are on downtrends.
5. TSLA's crazy 5.33 PEG ratio is not likely to be sustainable as people are trading it with emotion not fundamental. Emotion is mood, it can change quickly.
6. Inflation is at 40 year high and 3 rate hikes by the federal reserve is expected this year. 10 year Treasury yield is now at 1.668% and looks ready to break November 2021 high of 1.69%. Investors will likely rotate from growth stocks to value stocks besides new year profit taking on last years high return stocks.
7. People are expecting the Omicron variant will not have too much impact on global economy, but this is still an unknown in reality as US infections are accelerating and China is locking down cities and closing ports.
2021 年，科技股偏重的纳斯达克 100 指数上涨了 27%。由于担心在新的一年要支付巨额资本利得税阻止了投资者在年底获利卖股而支持并稳定了科技股。另外，机构联手在年底前推高股价，以便他们能够报告更好的年度业绩是导致 2021 年年底股票上升的另一个因素。科技股在昨天（2022 年的第一个交易日）走运了，TSLA 强劲的车辆交付数量推高了科技股的价格。科技股的新年获利回吐被推迟了一天，今天终于出现了大幅抛售。科技股的下跌主要是估值过高。股值过高的股票最终都会大幅回落。很明显的例子是一些2020至2021年受追捧的股票如PTON, TDOC, ZM, PLTR 及 DOCU 等，它们分别从高位下跌了81%，71%，71%，60%及58%。尽管很多投资人都没有熊市的经验，但应该从上面列出的股票的表现吸取教训而提高警惕。尽管大型科技股不会跌得它们那么惨。以下是可能会导致科技股的抛售继续的一些原因：
1、纳斯达克100指数（NDX）今日跌幅大于昨日涨幅而形成了看跌吞没形态。这种反转模式应该会导致更多的疲软。最初可能会跌至前期低点15508。情况坏起来可能会下去挑战200日均线14869水平。
2. 大型科技股的 PEG 高得令人不安（TSLA 5.33、NVDA 2.30、MSFT 2.29、AAPL 2.04、AMZN 1.82），因为 PEG 的公允价值为 1，尽管一些热门股票在正常时间可以达到 1.3。如果估值重新调整到正常水平，这些股票可能会下跌很多。
3. AAPL 的 3 万亿美元市值价约为 每股182 美元，可能是近期的顶部，并成为主要的心理阻力。 2.04 的 PEG 比率并不划算，因为合理的比率是 1 到1.3。
4. AMZN、GOOG、FB、MSFT、NVDA 和 NFLX 的价格图表看起来很丑陋并且处于下降趋势中。
5. TSLA 疯狂的 5.33 PEG 比率不太可能持续，因为人们是用情绪交易TSLA而非基于基本面。情绪就是心情，它可以迅速改变。
6. 通胀处于 40 年高位，预计今年美联储将加息 3 次。 10 年期美国国债收益率目前为 1.668%，看起来已准备好突破 2021 年 11 月的高点 1.69%。除了对去年高回报股票的获利了结外，投资者可能会从成长型股票转向价值型股票。
7、人们期待Omicron的变种病毒不会对全球经济产生太大影响，但这在现实中仍然是一个未知数，因为美国的感染正在加速中而中国正在封城和关闭港口。
No comments:
Post a Comment