来自推文的见解 Insights from tweets

OddStats‏ @OddStats 20h20 hours ago

As of the close today, the Federal Funds Rate now has a higher yield than the 2y, 3y, 5y, and 7y Treasuries. Here's a $SPX chart since 1976, showing every other time (in red) that the same thing happened. And yes, it preceded every single recession in this time period.

OntheMoney‏ @OntheMoneyUK 4h4 hours ago

$SPX Strategy Update: Good news on all fronts gives trapped buyers their first chance to sell

Tim Ord‏ @OrdOracle Jan 3

NYSE volume momentum osc. at -195.31. Intermediate term lows have formed when Volume Momentum Osc. was below -150 in all cases going back 10 years. $SPX $spy $ndx $QQQ

Teddy Vallee‏ @TeddyVallee 6h6 hours ago

% cos guiding lower $SPX

Mark A. Lytle‏ @mlytle0 4h4 hours ago

$SPX - The point of statistical neutrality on Bollingers work is the moving average in the center. That center for the weekly bands is higher than that for the monthly in this case. So it will probably pull price HIGHER than the 50% retrace.

Clueless8_TradingJan 4th, 1:56 pm

$ES_F $SPX $SPY $DJIA <STUDY the Charts> Tactical Long/Short PROFITS$

标普500下一上涨目标的计算 Calculating The Next Upside Target For The S&P 500

今天美国股市是具有大动力向上的一天，短期趋势看涨。让我们试着找出标准普尔500指数下一个上升目标。 让我们计算公平些，用3种方法来预测阻力并取它们的平均值。 它们是：50天移动平均阻力2564，50％斐波那契反弹水平2574，上升继续形态的第二波上涨目标为2694。 因此，下一次标准普尔500指数上涨的目标是上述所有3个水平的平均值，结果是2637。


Now that the us stock market is having a momentous day and its short term trend is now up, let us try to figure out where the S&P 500 may go to before hitting resistance. Let's be fair on our calculation and perform an average of 3 ways of projecting resistances. Here they are: the 50 day moving average resistance is at 2564, the 50% fibonacci bounce level is at 2574 and the second leg of measured move points to 2694 as resistance. So my target for the next S&P 500 up move is the average of all 3 levels above and it turns out to be 2637.

新月效应今天应验在美国股市！New Moon Effect is at work on the US stock market today!

新月效应今天应验在美国股市！市场扭转了昨天的大幅下跌，今天在飙升。又一次证明，月圆和新月对于市场方向变化是准确的。

苹果公司对营业额低于估计的警告导致道指昨日下跌660点。美联储将对加息保持耐性和灵活性，大幅强于预期的非农就业报告，中国央行缓解银行存款准备金要求，美中贸易谈判将于下周开始等一系列利好消息部推动道指今天上涨超过600点。令人惊讶的是，就在新月前一天，新闻突然从极端看跌变为看涨。道琼斯指数今天上涨近1000点应该不会觉得奇怪，因为每个人都感到宽慰并且开始买入股票。即使道指可能达不到1000点的涨幅，美股继续反弹的可能性大。

由于AAPL的稳定以及AMD，NFLX，TWTR，NVDA，INTC，FB，AMZN和GOOG的大幅反弹，纳斯达克综合指数表现尤为强劲。 纳斯达克100指数ETF QQQ在下面的日线图中表现强劲。 强劲的TICKQ，上升的OBV和下跌的VXN 都显示反弹可能会继续。

QQQ日线图也看涨，因为它突破了近期高位，可能会挑战160和163区域。


New Moon Effect is at work on the US stock market today! The market reversed yesterday's big drop and is surging today. Full Moon and New Moon has proven to be accurate for market change in direction.

Apple's warning on revenue missing estimate caused the Dow to drop 660 points yesterday. A series of positive news such as Fed will be patient and flexible, much stronger than expected non-farm payroll report, Chinese central bank eases bank reserve requirement and US-China trade talk to start next week and a deal is expected all serve to drive the Dow up more than 600 points today.  It is so amazing that just one day before New Moon, news all of a sudden change from extreme bearish to bullish. It wouldn't be surprise if the Dow moves up near 1000 points today as every feel relieved and jump in to buy stocks. The market rebound most likely will continue even if the Dow may not reach a 1000 point gain.

The Nasdaq Composite index is especially strong to day lead by stabilization of AAPL and big rallies on AMD,NFLX,TWTR,NVDA,INTC,FB,AMZN and GOOG. The Nasdaq 100 index ETF QQQ is looking strong in the following intra-day chart. Strong ticks, rising OBV and falling VXN. The rally likely will continue.

The daily chart below for QQQ also is also bullish since it's breaking above recent high and likely go up to challenge the 160 and 163 area.

什么推动今早股市大升？ What Drives This Morning‘s Stock Market Surge？

1.道琼斯工业+ 2.60％，标准普尔500指数+ 2.72％，纳斯达克综合指数+ 3.26％，罗素2000 + 3.24％。

2. 中国人民银行周五表示，它将把银行必须持有的现金数量减少一个百分点。此举将基本上释放1.5万亿人民币，约合2180亿美元。 12月份中国服务业PMI跃升至53.9的六个月高位。上证指数收涨2.05％。

3. 美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔表示，美联储对加息将会谨慎及灵活。他还说如果特朗普要他辞职他也不会。

4. 12月非农业就业人数为+ 312K，而市场预期为+ 178K，11月份+ 176K（从155K修订）。失业率为3.9％，市场预期为3.7％，11月为3.7％。 12月份服务业采购经理人指数为54.4，而市场预期为53.4，11月为54.7。

5. API表示，上周美国原油供应下降450万桶。原油上涨4.44％至49.18。

6.世界股市收盘：日本-2.26％，上海+ 2.05％，香港+ 2.24％，德国+ 2.61％，英国+ 1.9％，法国+ 2.02％。

1. Dow Jones Industrial +2.60%, S&P 500 +2.72%, Nasdaq Composite +3.26%, Russell 2000 +3.24%.

2. The People's Bank of China on Friday said it would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves by one percentage point. The move will essentially free up 1.5 trillion Chinese renminbi, or about $218 billion. Chinese Service PMI jumped to a Six-month high of 53.9 in December. Shanghai stock index closed up 2.05%.

3. Fed chairman Jerome Powell said Fed will be patient, flexible with rate hikes. He also said he would not resign if Trump ask him to.

4. December Non farm payroll came in at +312K vs. consensus +178K, +176K previous (revised from 155K). Unemployment rate came in at 3.9% vs. 3.7% consensus, 3.7% November. December Service PMI came in at 54.4 Vs. 53.4 consensus, 54.7 November.

5. U.S. crude supply fell 4.5M barrels last week, API says. Crude oil is up 4.44% to 49.18.

6. World stock market closes :Japan -2.26%, Shanghai +2.05%, Hong Kong +2.24%, Germany +2.61%, Britain +1.9%, France +2.02%.

对股市利好的发展 Developments That Are Positive For The Stock Market

1. 中国和美国将于1月7日至8日举行副部长级贸易谈判。分析师现在预计这两个经济巨头将在争议中找到一些共同点，其动力可能来自双方疲软的股市。

2. 中国总理李克强进一步表示放松政策和支持小企业。上证指数反弹2.05％。

3. 一个月前，联邦基金期货显示至少有一次加息的可能性为72.9％, 现在则只有38.9％的几率。美国经济衰退甚至经济不景气的风险已导致联邦基金期货投资者对利率预期的转变，现在显示年底减息的可能性为40％。

4. 随着石油输出国组织（OPEC）去年年底宣布减产快将开始实行，石油期货价格可望得到支撑。石油输出国组织，俄罗斯和其他非成员国去年12月同意2019年将从2018年10月的水平每天减产120万桶。石油输出国组织减产的份额为80万桶/日。


1. China and the United States will hold deputy ministerial trade negotiations from January 7th to 8th. Analysts now expect the two economic giants to find some common ground in the controversy, which may be driven by weak stock markets.

2. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang expressed his policy of further easing and support for small businesses. The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded by 1.4%.

3. A month ago, Fed Fund futures showed a 72.9% chance of raising interest rates at least once, and now there is only a 38.9% chance. The risk of a recession in the US and even the economic downturn has led to changes in interest rate expectations for federal funds futures investors, and now shows a 40% chance of a rate cut at the end of the year.

4. As the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at the end of last year announced production cuts will begin soon , oil futures prices are expected to be supported. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other non-member states agreed in December last year that they would reduce production by 1.2 million barrels per day from the 2018 level in 2019. The OPEC’s share of production reduction is 800,000 barrels per day.

明天对美股至关重要 Tomorrow is critical for the US stock market

明天的非农就业报告，美联储杰罗姆鲍威尔的讲话以及AAPL能否稳定下来是美股的关键。纳斯达克综合指数（$ COMPQ）仍然可以反弹，假如它能够站稳38％和50％的斐波那契回撤支撑位的话。 它们分别为6502和6442。

Tomorrow's Non-Farm Payroll report , Fed's Jerome Powell speak and whether AAPL can stabilize are keys to the US market. Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) still can bounce assuming it's able to hold 38% and 50% Fibonacci Supports. They are 6502 and 6442 respectively. 

美股会如同近几日表现一样从低位反弹吗？Will The US Market Behave Like The Last Few Days, Bouncing Back From Morning Low?

今天美股的关键是AAPL。如果AAPL能够稳定并且上升至145美元以上，美国股市可能会反弹。如果AAPL超过150美元，这将成为AAPL的买入信号。

AAPL的营业额低于预期导致美股在即将到来的收益季节之前反影了很多坏消息，结果可能对市场有利。苹果营业额低于预期的原因是中国需求放缓。中国经济放缓及其对美国公司的负面影响可能会迫使美中贸易战停战。它也可能会停止美国联邦储备加息。有人猜测中国可能会采取措施改善经济。这些都是有可能的市场情绪变动。

无论市场情绪如何，重要的是市场现在的表现如何。道琼斯指数在早盘早些时候下跌了677点，目前已经上涨至仅下跌342点。逢低买家肯定是利用机会买入股票了。事实上，在过去3天的交易中，市场一直在下跌后在收盘时反弹。今天也可能会是同样的行动，因为资金经理看到了机会，并把资金在一年的开始投入。

从技术上讲，如果道指能够反弹至23200以上，那么今天美国股市可能会正数收盘。如果道指再度跌穿今天低位22668则美股会继续探底。

The key for today's stock market is AAPL. If AAPL is able to stabilize and move above $145, US stock market may rally. If AAPL moves above $150 it will be a buy signal for AAPL. 

AAPL's revenue miss drives the market to discount a lot of bad news for the forth coming earning season and it may turn out to be good for the market. The reason for Apple's revenue miss is due to slow down in Chinese demand. The slow down in Chinese economy and its negative impact on US corporations may force a truce on the US-China trade war. And it also may halt interest rate from the 

Federal Reserve. There are speculation that China may take steps to improve their economy. These are possible sentiment changes for the market.

Whatever the market sentiment may be, the important thing is how is the market actually behaving now. The Dow dropped 677 points earlier in the morning and has now improved to only down 342.

Bargain hunters are definitely use the opportunity to buy stocks. As a matter of fact, the market has been down early and rallied at the close for the the last 3 days of trading. So there is a strong chance that it may be the same kind of action today as money managers see the opportunity and put their money to work in the new year. 

Technically, if the Dow is able to rally back above 23200, then the US stock market will likely has a positive close today. If the Dow drops below 22668

分析师们对AAPL的评论 Analysts Comments On AAPL

苹果AAPL调低Q1营业额，股价下跌$15.59 －9.87%到$142.33。

高盛分析师罗德霍尔将其Apple（AAPL）目标从182美元下调至140美元。 他将2019年的收入预期下调6％至253亿美元，每股盈利下降10％至11.66美元。 他表示，根据中国需求的走势，苹果公司（AAPL）可能也会将其2019年的数据削减。霍尔没有看到中国以外消费放缓的有力证据，但他预计3月份之前情况不会好转。

Cannacord Genuity维持对苹果的买入评级，将目标价降至190美元，并且仍然预计苹果将继续增加其安装基数并相信该公司的生态系统将有助于增长，特别是对于利润率较高的服务和其他产品，尽管iPhone销售放缓。

新街研究New Street Research表示，苹果的下行风险有限，调升评到为中立，目标价为140美元。

今天其他分析师对苹果的评及如下：Needham 买入，目标价从$200降至$180。Monness Crespi and Hardt 买入，目标价从$300降至$200。Maxim Group 持有，目标价从$212降至$160 。


Apple AAPL lowered its Q1 turnover and its share price fell $15.59 -9.87% to $142.33.

Goldman analyst Rod Hall cuts his Apple (AAPL) target from $182 to $140. His drops his 2019 revenue estimate by 6% to $253B and EPS by 10% to $11.66. He says Apple (AAPL) could cut its 2019 numbers beyond yesterday's Q1 Warning "depending on the trajectory of Chinese demand."
Hall doesn't see strong evidence of a consumer slowdown outside of China, but he doesn't expect that situation to improve in March.

Cannacord Genuity maintains buy on Apple, lowers price target to $190 and still anticipates Apple will continue to grow its install base and believe the company's ecosystem will contribute to on going growth, particularly for higher margin services and other products despite slowing iPhone sales.

New Street Research says there's limited downside risk for Apple and upgrades rating to Neutral, price target $140.

Other analysts today commented on Apple as follows: Needham bought, the target price dropped from $200 to $180. Monness Crespi and Hardt buy, target price dropped from $300 to $200. Maxim Group holds the target price from $212 to $160.

苹果预警Q1营业额将不如预期 Apple Warns Q1 Revenue Misses Estimate

苹果AAPL预警第一季度营业额从预期的$91.5B跌至$84B, 股票后市大跌7%到$147。CEO Jim Cook 归咎于正在放缓中的经济及中美贸易战的负面冲击。从历史高价$233.47跌至$147共下跌$86.47，为-37%。AAPL 的预警势将拖累明日美股下跌。苹果在两个月前作出营业额预估时无法看出问题，分析师担忧投资人要等2个季度后才对苹果有信心。


Apple AAPL warns first-quarter revenue fell from the expected $91.5B to $84B,  stock fell 7% to $147 during after hour trading. CEO Jim Cook is blaming on the negative impact of the slowing economy and the Sino-US trade war. From a historical high of $233.47 to $147, it fell by $86.47, -37%. AAPL's warning will drag down US stocks tomorrow. Apple couldn't see the problem when it made revenue estimate two months ago. Analysts worry that investors will have to wait two quarters before they rebuilt confidence in Apple.

美股尾盘评论 Closing Market Comment

Major indices have rallied from their openings much lower levels with Nasdaq and Russell 2000 now positive and Dow and S&P 500 have recovered most of their morning drop . Worse then expected December manufacture data released from all over the world brought fear to the market early in the trading day. But sentiment quickly changed from fear to optimistic as bad economic data may be positive for US and China to strike a deal on trade negotiation. The thinking of weak economy may stop the Fed from raising interest rate (CME Fed watch tool indicates no hike in 2019) also helps. January Effect buying will likely be another driver for higher market near term. Technically, major indices have been consolidating their recent sharp move up positively and may be ready for another up leg before coming back down to test December lows. Major indices may recover up 50% of their December drop which means approximately Dow 2400, S&P 500 2600 and Nasdaq 6800 levels.


主要股指从开盘的低水平上涨回来，纳斯达克和罗素2000现在正面，而道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数则从早盘低点大幅反弹。 12月份全球发布的制造业数据坏于预期在早盘给市场带来恐慌。 但由于糟糕的经济数据可能对美国和中国达成贸易谈判协议有利，因此情绪迅速从恐惧变为乐观。另外，经济疲软的想法可能会阻止美联储加息（CME Fed监测工具显示2019年加息的机会微）也有所帮助。 1月效应买盘可能是近期上涨行情的另一个推动因素。 从技术面来看，主要市场指数一直在正面的整理近期的大幅上涨，并可能准备迎接另一个上涨行情，然后再重探12月低点。 主要股指可能会向上收复12月跌幅的50％，这意味着大约会到道指2400，标准普尔500 2600和纳斯达克6800水平。

几日间获利11%的方法 Ways To Make 11% In A Few Day

下面的大市指数3倍ETF均有短期买入信号。它们是纳斯达克100 TQQQ，罗素2000 TNA，标普500 SPXL及道琼斯工业UDOW。假如它们都从2018年12月低位反弹12月从高位到低位跌幅的50%的话，各个ETF都会有约11%的涨幅。这些涨幅可能会在几日间获得，只要美股各大指数从现在上升3.7%。以目前美股走势看来，可以达到的目标的机会大。

The following US stock market index 3 times ETFs all have short-term buying signals. They are the NASDAQ 100 TQQQ, the Russell 2000 TNA, the S&P 500 SPXL and the Dow Jones Industrial UDOW. If they all rebound from the low in December 2018 50% of the fall from the high to the low in December, each ETF will have an increase of about 11%. These gains may be obtained in a few days, as long as the US stock indexes rose by 3.7% from now. It looks likely with how the  current US stock market is trending now.

美股当日升势继续 Intraday Uptrend Continues For US Stocks

标准普尔500指数ETF SPY已向上收复周一收盘价。 VXX整个上午趋势下降并且已经转正为负。SPY累计交易量OBV持续上涨，与SPY当日上升趋势同步。 纳斯达克和罗素2000指数上涨，而道指则仅下跌23点。特朗普刚刚说，上个月的股票下行趋势只是一个小故障，应该会变得更好也有帮助。美国股市应该从这里变得更强。

S&P 500 ETF SPY has recovered above Mondays closing price. VXX trending down all morning and has turned negative. On Balance Volume for SPY is consistently rising in sync with SPYs intraday uptrend. Nasdaq and Russell 2000 is up while the Dow is only down 23 points. Trump commented that last month's downtrend is only a glich and should get better also helped. US stock market should be getting stronger from here.

美股今天或已见底 US Stock Market May Have Already Bottomed For The Day

中国的工厂活动在12月份进入收缩水平。其他亚洲国家，如韩国，台湾，新加坡和马来西亚均报出疲弱数据。最新的欧元区制造业数据也显示12月份放缓。亚洲股市下跌但欧洲股市均已从跌转升。美股在2019年的第一个交易日开盘走低。道指今早曾一度下跌399点。这是自1989年以来最糟糕的新年开盘。然而，除了道指及标普还分别下跌60点及3点外，纳指及罗素2000现在都已经从跌转升。

原油价格走高帮助石油股ETF OIH上涨2.6％。半导体ETF SMH和零售业ETF XRT今日表现强劲，均上涨约多于1％。市场龙头股如AMZN，FB，QCOM，NVDA，GS，IBM的强势也在支持市场上升。小型股指数罗素2000指数大幅反弹表明1月效应正在发挥作用。

美国股市今天看来已经见底，或会走强到收市。由于来自世界各地的经济数据的弱势似乎是由中美之间的贸易战所引起，市场情绪是美国和中国现在将被迫做出贸易妥协。


Factory activity in china shrank in December to contraction level . Other asian countries such as Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia also reported weak data. The latest Eurozone manufacturing data also indicates slow down in December. Asian and European stock markets are down.  Us stock market opened lower on the first trading day of 2019. Dow was down 399 points earlier this morning. It is the worst new year market open since 1989. However, Only the Dow and S&P 500 are still down 60 points and 3 points respectively, the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have now risen from the morning fall.

Crude oil price is trading higher helped oil stock sector ETF OIH rising 2%. Semiconductor ETF SMH and Retail sector ETF XRT are strong today, both up more than 1% . Strength in market leaders such AMZN, FB, QCOM, NVDA, GS, IBM also supporting market. Small Cap index Russell 2000 bouncing aggressively is indicative of January Effect at work.

US stock market looks already bottomed for today, look for further strength towards the close. Since economic data from around the world are weak seemingly caused by trade war between US and China, market sentiment is that both US and China are now forced to make a trade deal.

对明日股市的利好消息 Good News For Tomorrow's Stock Market

以下是对1月2日股市重开的一些好消息：

1.许多分析师表示，市场最大的担忧是贸易战和美联储通过加息以及缩减资产负债表的“紧缩” 计划。一些策略师表示，如果这两个最严重的担忧在2019年得到解决，对股市来说可能会是非常好的一年。

2.根据芝加哥商品交易所的Fedwatch工具，2019年加息的可能性如下：1/30 13％，3/20 5.1％，5/1 7.9％，6/19 15.1％，7/31 14.8％， 9/18 20.4％，10/30 20％，12/11 19.5％1。

3.唐纳德·特朗普总统邀请国会高层领导人参加白宫关于边境安全的简报会，此举表明他可能愿意达成协议，以结束迄今为止持续11天的部分政府停工。

4.习近平主席说：“我愿意与特朗普总统共同努力，实现我们共同努力推进中美关系和稳定关系的共识，以便更好地造福两国人民和世界其他地方的人。“

5. 没有坏消息。


Here are some good news for the stock market when market opens January 2:

1. According to many analyst, the market’s biggest worries are trade wars and Fed ‘tightening’ through rate hikes and its program to shrink its balance sheet. If these two worst fears are resolved in 2019, it could be a very good year for stocks, some strategists say.

2. According to CME's Fedwatch Tool, the chance of a rate hike during 2019 are as follows: 1/30 13%, 3/20 5.1%, 5/1 7.9%, 6/19 15.1%, 7/31 14.8%, 9/18 20.4%,10/30 20%, 12/11 19.5%1.

3. President Donald Trump invites top congressional leaders to a White House briefing on border security, a move suggesting he may be ready to make a deal to end the partial government shutdown that's lasted 11 days so far.

4. President Xi Jin Ping said: "I am willing to work with President Trump to implement the consensus we have reached in a joint effort to advance China-U.S. relations featuring coordination and stability so as to better benefit the two peoples as well as the people of the rest of the world."

5. No bad news.

近日推文集成 A Collection Of Twits From Recent Days

mcm-ct.com‏ @mcm_ct 28 Dec 2018

More calls bought today than at any time in 2018 $spx

Charlie Bilello‏Verified account @charliebilello 31 Dec 2018

S&P 500 ends the year down 4.4%, its first negative year since 2008 (note: total return). $SPX

Mago da Bolsa‏ @magotrader 29 Dec 2018

Cycles matter.

OddStats‏ @OddStats 19h19 hours ago

OFFICIAL LIST OF WORST $SPX DECEMBER(S) EVER Congratulations to 2018 for posting the 2nd worst ever and worst since the index went to 500 stocks in 1957.

Keith McCullough‏Verified account @KeithMcCullough 6h6 hours ago

Here's how #Quad4 in Q4 ultimately played out (-14% $SPX) with our Top 3 Sector Shorts, Energy, Industrials, and Tech leading the crash

David Puell‏ @kenoshaking 24 Dec 2018

$SPX: About to test a 10-year trendline on OBV, the cumulative testament of the victory of buyers over sellers since the end of the Financial Crisis.

David Paul‏ @dapstats 31 Dec 2018

/1 Here's your market update. First stop, $DIA... The face-ripping bear market rally looks to be over IMO (could be wrong of course). This bear began in October and we are not done yet. Should get {5} of [3] of 3 *down* today or tomorrow. $INDU $DJIA

David Busick‏ @TheFibDoctor 31 Dec 2018

$DJIA $COMPQ $SPX $RUT $CL_F 1 year (2018) Dow - (6.03%) Nasdaq - (5.3%) S&P - (7.01%) Russell 2K - (13%) Crude - (24.74%)

2019年1月4日是美股转折点？Will January 4, 2019 be market turning point?

新月和月圆的日子通常是股票市场的转折点或非常接近转折点。 由于新月或月圆的日子有时会在周末降临，所以有时转折点会差一两天。 下一个市场转折点可能是2019年1月5日，这是一个新月的日子。 由于这是一个星期六，所以实际的转折点可能发生在2019年1月4日或2019年1月7日。这些日期是拐点是有道理的，因为届时标准普尔500指数可能已升至我预测的2600阻力水平。 所以要注意1月4日或1月7日市场或会结束反弹并转跌！下图NM代表新月，FM代表月圆。

New Moon and  Full Moon dates are usually turning points or very near turning points for the stock market. Sometimes it's off by a day or two due to the New moon or Full moon days fall on weekends. The next market turning point may happen on January 5, 2019 which is a New Moon date. Since it's a Saturday, so the actually turning point may happen either on January 4 or January 7, 2019. These dates make sense since by then the S&P 500 may rises to my projected 2600 resistance level. So beware of market may finish its bounce and turn down by January 4 or January 7! In the diagram below, NM is in short for New Moon and FM is in short for Full Moon.

标普500可能反弹到的阻力水平 S&P 500 Likely Resistance Levels

美股尾盘报导 Closing Market Comment

美股进入最后1小时的交易，市场仍然保持大部份早上涨幅，应该会继续早上升势到收市。几经反复后标普500的2500水平终于被向上收复而打下了挑战2600的基础。美股经12月26及27日的大幅反弹后再经28日及今天的窄幅整理后应该是再开始上升的时候了。短期美股继续看好。


US stocks entered the last hour of trading, the market still maintains most of the early gain, and should continue to rise towards the close. After repeated iterations, the 2500 level of the S&P 500 was finally recovered and laid the foundation for the challenge of 2600. After the sharp rebound of the US stock market on December 26 and 27, it will be the time to start rising again after the narrow consolidation on 28th and today. Short-term US stocks continue to be optimistic.

中盘市场评论 Mid-day Market Comment

NFLX,AMZN, AAPL,GS,BA等龙头带领市场已从低位拉升。各大指数已经填了早上跳空上升的裂口而开始再升,今日已经见底的机会大。VXX 今天卖压大，下跌快，上升慢，显示大户偏于买股。如果没有突发利空消息，美股继续反弹的机会大。短期上升目标：道指24000，标普500 2600及纳指7000。近来小盘股罗素2000为4大指数中跌的最多的股指，相信2019一月效应买股行为会帮助它在几大股指中反弹最猛。可考虑买入IWM或TNA参与反弹。


Market leader such as NFLX, AMZN, AAPL, GS and BA  have pulled market up from the morning low level. Major  indices have already filled their morning up gaps and have started to rise again. The chance that today's market bottom have been in are great. VXX experiences big selling pressure today, falling fast and rising slowly are indications that institutions are biased towards buying shares. If there is no sudden bad news, the chances of the US stock market continuing to rebound are great. Short-term upside targets are: Dow 24000, S&P 500 2600 and Nasdaq 7000. Recently，the small-cap Russell 2000 dropped the most among the four major indexes. It is believed that the 2019 January Effect stock buying will help it rebound the most among major stock indexes. Consider buying IWM or TNA to participate in the rebound.

美股早盘报道 Morning Market Comment

特朗普周末与习近平通话后发推文称中美贸易谈判有重大发展。美股各大指数开市上升，

但开盘10分钟后即开始回落。道指曾一度上升250点，现在只升174点。道指表现最强，标普次之，纳指随后，罗素2000最弱。尽管各大指数从高位回落但VXX却在低位不上，显示美股再升的机会大。期望中美贸易谈判有好消息，年底基金入市，年初一月效应买股，标普500阻力2600还有约100点才到，这些都是美股还没反弹完的部份原因。近日美股还会继续反弹的机会大。

After a conversation with Xi Jinping on the weekend, Trump said that there has been significant progress in Sino-US trade negotiations. US  major indices rose at the open, However, they began to fall back after 10 minutes of the opening. The Dow at one point rose by 250 points and is now only up 174 points. The Dow is the strongest, followed by the S&P, Nasdaq the third and Russell 2000 is the weakest. Even though major indices have fallen from the morning's high levels, VXX is still holding up at lower ground, showing that there is chance for US stocks to rise again later. Expectations of good news in Sino-US trade negotiations, End of the year fund buying,  January effect buying after the turn of the year, the S&P 500 resistance of 2600 is still about 100 points away, these are some of reasons why US stocks still have room for rebound near term

如何对付Wash Sale

每个短期交易股票的人要清楚Wash Sale对税的后果。以下是我对
Wash Sale 的理解︰ 为了避免Wash Sale的税务后果，在

卖出赔钱的证券后，你必须在30天内不买相同的证券。否则，

损失不能退税。另外一个避免Wash Sale的方法是成为当日交易

者并向国税局呈交 3115表格以更改到Mark to Market的会计方法。

如果来不及呈交3115表格，以后交易最好在30日内不重复做同

一个证券，如果卖出时赔钱的话，除非是赚钱。

3115 表格应在报税时呈交，下一年开始生效。例如在2015年

报税表上附上 3115 表格，新会计方法开始的年份是 2016年。

Form 3115 表格： https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f3115.pdf

Form 3115 表格填表指示：https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i3115.pdf

如何避免Wash Sale 的好文章：

http://www.capitalmanagementservicesgroup.com/marktomarketelection.html

美股收市报导2017 05 18

今日美股各大指数收市平均上升约0.42%。道指上升54.90报20661，纳指上升42.83报6054.07，标普500上升8.58报2365.61，罗素2000上升4.99报1360.88。

美股今天开市下跌，反弹后回落。盘中有炒家提出在5月3日国会的问话中前FBI局长James Comey 被问及有没有受到司法部对调查前国家安全顾问Michael Flynn的阻扰的事情。当时Comey说没有受压。市场解读为没有受特朗普不要调查的压力，美股于是再度反弹。不过收市前投资人了解5月3日的问话是针对司法部而与特朗普无关后市场再度回落。美股各大指数昨天平均大跌2.2%后，今天反弹。不过只反弹昨日跌幅的5份1算是弱势反弹，动力向下。昨天各大指数的大跌已经造成技术上的破坏。道指，标普500及罗素2000仍然在50天均线之下而今天恐慌指数也回撤不多显示美股趋势继续看跌。特朗普妨碍司法的事情一天未调查清楚，市场将会继续受压。下周三，James Comey 将在国会对此事作证。道指支撑为20502，阻力是20777。纳指支撑5950，阻力6073。标普500支撑2338，阻力2369。罗素2000支撑1335，阻力是1378。

今天上升最多的股票板块是半导体SOXX＋1.94%，社交网站SOCL+1.93%，生物科技IBB＋1.40%，互联网FDN＋0.74%及科技XLK＋0.64%。下跌最多的股票板块有金矿GDX－3.34%及钢铁SLX－2.52%。今天涨幅大的股票 ：ATHN＋25.04%，ACHN＋16.67%，IMGN＋14.16%，NADL＋12.86%及GTHX＋10.64％。今天跌幅大的股票：ELGX－36.5%，ASNA－23%，CIG-23%，SID－19.4%及BBD －16.8%。

德国下跌0.33%在20天均线得到支撑。在升势中调整。中国上证指数下跌0.46%，趋势看跌。美元指数下跌0.55%报97.46，为第五天下跌。低于20，50及200天均线，趋势看跌。支撑96.94，阻力98.36。十年国债回报率上升0.02%报2.23%，趋势看跌。油价上升0.59美元报49.66并突破50天均线阻力49.38，趋势转升。支撑是49.38，阻力51。黄金下跌5.9美元报1252.80, 仍在50及200天均线之上。趋势看涨。支撑是1250，阻力1272。

美股收市报导2017 05 17

今日美股各大指数收市平均大跌约2.22%。道指下跌369.50报20610.20，纳指下跌158.20报6011.67，标普500下跌43.34报2357.33，罗素2000下跌38.53报1356.15。

昨日纽约时报报导特朗普曾要求被撤职的前FBI局长James Comey终止对前国家安全顾问Michael Flynn与俄国官员接触的事情。国会有部分议员认为这是妨碍司法。另外特朗普与俄国外长会面时曾泄露一些秘密情报。有舆论认为这些都是总统的不当行为而有可能导致被弹劾。股市担忧的是特朗普推动经济增长的改革议程可能会放缓而变成经济风险。美股因而大跌。今天波动指数VIX从历史低位大幅飙升超过46%，为6个月以来最恐慌的表现的一天。技术上道指，标普500及罗素2000均已跌穿50天均线支撑。今天市场下跌的动力近期将会继续。特朗普妨碍司法的事情一天未查清楚，市场将会继续受压。后市思科CSCO财报好于预期但前景预期不佳，股票后市大跌8%。道指支撑为20495，阻力是20781。纳指支撑5945，阻力6066。标普500支撑2336，阻力2369。罗素2000支撑1335，阻力是1378。

今天大部分股票板块均下跌，下跌最多的板块是半导体SOXX－4.12%，社交网站SOCL－3.25%，财务XLF－3.15%，运输IYT－3.08%及互联网FDN－2.70% 。上升的股票板块有金矿GDX＋1.83%，煤电公司XLU＋0.29%。今天涨幅大的股票 ：UVXY＋37.40%，TVIX＋37.21%，PULM＋18.88%，VXX＋18.75%及VIXY＋18.40％。今天跌幅大的股票：SVXY－18.3%，XIV－18.3%，AEO-13.3%，BZUN－12.2%，及NPTN－11.5%。

德国下跌1.35%，在升势中调整。中国上证指数下跌0.26%，目前在跌势中反弹。美元指数下跌0.81%，报98，低于20，50及200天均线，趋势看跌。支撑96.94，阻力99.10。十年国债回报率下跌0.11%报2.22%，趋势看跌。油价上升0.41美元报49.07。已经碰到50天均线阻力49.39，可能会回落。支撑是48.25，阻力49.39。黄金大升22.30美元报1258.70并突破50及200天均线。趋势看涨。支撑是1250，阻力1272。