Thursday, January 3, 2019

美股会如同近几日表现一样从低位反弹吗?Will The US Market Behave Like The Last Few Days, Bouncing Back From Morning Low?

今天美股的关键是AAPL。如果AAPL能够稳定并且上升至145美元以上,美国股市可能会反弹。如果AAPL超过150美元,这将成为AAPL的买入信号。

AAPL的营业额低于预期导致美股在即将到来的收益季节之前反影了很多坏消息,结果可能对市场有利。苹果营业额低于预期的原因是中国需求放缓。中国经济放缓及其对美国公司的负面影响可能会迫使美中贸易战停战。它也可能会停止美国联邦储备加息。有人猜测中国可能会采取措施改善经济。这些都是有可能的市场情绪变动。

无论市场情绪如何,重要的是市场现在的表现如何。道琼斯指数在早盘早些时候下跌了677点,目前已经上涨至仅下跌342点。逢低买家肯定是利用机会买入股票了。事实上,在过去3天的交易中,市场一直在下跌后在收盘时反弹。今天也可能会是同样的行动,因为资金经理看到了机会,并把资金在一年的开始投入。

从技术上讲,如果道指能够反弹至23200以上,那么今天美国股市可能会正数收盘。如果道指再度跌穿今天低位22668则美股会继续探底。

The key for today's stock market is AAPL. If AAPL is able to stabilize and move above $145, US stock market may rally. If AAPL moves above $150 it will be a buy signal for AAPL. 

AAPL's revenue miss drives the market to discount a lot of bad news for the forth coming earning season and it may turn out to be good for the market. The reason for Apple's revenue miss is due to slow down in Chinese demand. The slow down in Chinese economy and its negative impact on US corporations may force a truce on the US-China trade war. And it also may halt interest rate from the 
Federal Reserve. There are speculation that China may take steps to improve their economy. These are possible sentiment changes for the market.

Whatever the market sentiment may be, the important thing is how is the market actually behaving now. The Dow dropped 677 points earlier in the morning and has now improved to only down 342.
Bargain hunters are definitely use the opportunity to buy stocks. As a matter of fact, the market has been down early and rallied at the close for the the last 3 days of trading. So there is a strong chance that it may be the same kind of action today as money managers see the opportunity and put their money to work in the new year. 

Technically, if the Dow is able to rally back above 23200, then the US stock market will likely has a positive close today. If the Dow drops below 22668














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