How To Deal With AAPL Before Earning AAPL财报前如何操作

After Apple's fourth quarter warning on January 2, AAPL dropped sharply for a couple of days but has since recovered to the early January level. The stock is still down roughly a third from a record high in October. Many analysts think most of the Q4 bad news is likely priced in and now investors are leaning more heavily on Q1 guidance rather than Q4 results. Morgan Stanley gives high importance to “clarity on the Services growth deceleration in December” quarter and “March quarter guidance.” The bank thinks that “Apple likely needs to deliver a ‘better than feared’ revenue outlook for shares to recover further in the very near-term.”

The March quarter revenue consensus is currently at $59 billion (down 3.5% annually), after having fallen by about $5 billion since Apple's warning.  Besides Apple's warning, a slew of other U.S. multinational companies have also reported seeing soft Chinese demand.  One key question, then, is whether Apple has seen demand in China and other emerging markets stabilize since its warning, or are conditions still deteriorating?

Bloomberg article says anyone looking for an upbeat forecast from Apple Inc. is likely to be disappointed when the company reports results later on Tuesday. Two analysts interviewed by CNBC said there are more pains to come for Apple.

That said, one bright spot is its low forward PE.  As of January 28, Apple’s forward PE ratio was 12.3, which is lower than its forward PE ratio of 13.8x about a month ago. The forward PE ratios were calculated based on analysts’ estimates for the company’s earnings for the next 12 months. It's lower than other tech giants  forward PE including Microsoft (MSFT)22.2, Amazon.com (AMZN) 60.6, and Alphabet (GOOG) 22.9.

Technically, AAPL is below its 50 and 200 day moving averages, so its intermediate and long term trends are down. Its short term trend is up since it has recovered above its 20 day moving average.
However, its OBV has been flat as its price moved up is indicative of weak trend. Trading volume has been low is indicative of lack of interest from investors. Its support is 20 day moving average level at 152.25 then 150 while its resistances are 160 and 50 day moving average at 164.

At 9:40 Pacific Time， a quick calculation of AAPL February 1 expiration Call Put ratio is 1.26.
It's a little more call buying then put buying, but the ratio is not big enough to draw definite conclusion of which way the stock will go. Strategy is do nothing if no position. Sell Covered Call if holding AAPL.

在苹果公司于1月2日发布第四季度警告后，AAPL大幅下挫两天，但此后已恢复到1月初的水平。该股仍然从10月创下的历史新高下跌约三分之一。许多分析师认为，大多数第四季度的坏消息都可能被反应了，而现在投资者更倾向于第一季度的指引而不是第四季度的结果。摩根士丹利高度重视“服务业12月季度增长减速的澄清”和“三月季度的指引”。银行认​​为“苹果可能需要提供'好于预期'的营业额前景，以便股票能进一步向好。”

自苹果公司发出警告以来，3月季度收入预期目标为590亿美元（下降3.5％）。除了苹果公司的一月份的警告外，其他一些美国跨国公司也看到中国需求的疲软。那么，一个关键问题是苹果公司是否已经看到中国和其他新兴市场的需求在发出警告后趋于稳定，或者情况是否仍在恶化？

彭博社的一篇文章称，当该公司今天晚些时候公布结果时，任何对苹果公司乐观预测的人都可能会感到失望。今日接受CNBC采访的两位分析师表示苹果公司将面临更多痛苦。

尽管上面说的都不好，AAPL一个亮点是它的低前瞻市盈率。截至1月28日，苹果公司的前瞻市盈率为12.3，低于一个月前的预期市盈率13.8。前瞻市盈率是根据分析师对未来12个月公司盈利的预测计算得出的。它低于其他技术巨头的前瞻市盈率，包括微软（MSFT）22.2，亚马逊（AMZN）60.6和Alphabet（GOOG）22.9。

从技术上讲，AAPL低于其50日和200日移动平均线，因此其中长期趋势下跌。 其短期趋势上升，因为它已经恢复到20日移动均线之上。然而，由于其价格上涨而其OBV持平表明弱势。 交易量一直很低表明投资人缺乏兴趣。 它的支撑位是20天移动平均线152.25然后是150，而其阻力位则是160和50天移动平均线在164。

太平洋时间9点40分，快速计算AAPL 2月1日到期看涨期权对看跌期权比率为1.26。尽管买看涨期权多于买看跌期权，但这个比例不够大，无法得出股票走向的明确结论。如果没有持有AAPL，现在的策略是观望。若果持有股票，可卖Covered Call。