From BenCarson "s "Are Market Moves Happening Faster" :
The S&P 500 hit an all-time high on September 20, 2018. A little more than two months later, after a shellacking on Christmas Eve, it had fallen 19.8%. The 95 days from peak to trough was the fastest bear market since the S&P fell 19.3% in just 45 days in 1998. Since bottoming (for the moment, at least) the day before Christmas, stocks have now risen more than 10% in just a few short weeks.
The bear market at the start of the century from the dot-com flameout lasted over two-and-a-half years to go from top to bottom. It then took more than four-and-a-half years for the S&P 500 price index to regain the high from March 2000. On the other hand, the 19.4% drawdown in 2011 took less than 6 months from peak to trough and recovered the peak level in just 5 months.There are similar examples in the pre-Internet age. Stocks fell 21% in just 99 days in 1957, recovering in less than a year. Then there was the bear market from 1980 to 1982 which lasted more than 20 months but broke even 83 days later.It took 600 days to reclaim the peak in the market from August 1987 which was shortly before the Black Monday crash in 1987 that saw stocks fall 33% in less than a week.
January Stock Rebound Continues
from John Murphy, stoccharts.com
All major US stock indexes have exceeded their 50-day averages (blue lines). That still leaves their 200-day averages to contain the rally. But there are a couple of other resistance lines that still need to be tested. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials nearing a test of their 200-day average (red arrow). In addition, the falling trendline drawn over its October/December highs should also provided stiff overhead resistance. The Dow would have to clear both barriers to signal a major turn to The same is true of the other two major stock indexes.
Bull Market Rallies And Market Tops
From Lance Roberts, RealInvestmentAdvice.com
"As we proposed two weeks ago, the rebound continued to fall back to 2650-2700 within the expected range." "Importantly, the previous deep 'oversold' status support for the Christmas Eve rebound has now completely reversed back to extreme "super" Buy "field. Although this does not mean that the current rebound will immediately reverse, but it does indicate that the current level of upside may be limited."
The Mother Of All Short Setups?
from Dana Lyons' Tumblr
The VLG (Value Line Geometric Composite (VLG). As a refresher, the VLG tracks the median US stock performance among a universe of roughly 1800 stocks. )did manage to find subsequent support at our "Once A Decade" support levels, along with And after bottoming around 445, the index has soared back some 15% over the past 3 weeks. That bounce has brought the VLG back to – guess what level? Yep, 510, as of yesterday's close . So will this 510 level on the Value Line Geometric Composite continue to display the generational relevance that it has for more than 20 years now? Importantly, this morning's action has taken the index up to the 516 level – does that mean that the index, and Maybe the overall market, is out of the woods now? Or will this move prove fleeting and result in the index quickly losing the 510 level again? In that case, this critical level could well end up repelling this monster bounce in the market, send Prices hurtling back down and confirm the multi-decade false breakout.
Trend-Following Quants Buy Signal
From Bloomberg
Charlie McElligott noted last week that if the S&P 500 were to rise through 2,632.46, trend-following quantitative funds known as commodity trading advisers, or CTAs, would flip from ultimate bears. Now safely above that level, his model suggests algorithmic quant funds have moved From max short to 82 percent short. Currently, hedge funds and mutual funds are likely playing catch up, his theory goes.
"My long standing view has been and will continue to be that the systematic rules-based strategies moved first, which ultimately has forced/is continued to force fundamental discretionary active investors back into the market," he said in a message. "Complete and Butt force-in of funds who are holding Q4 scar tissue and simply aren't set up for this rally. [It's] capitulation flows to grab exposure."
熊市能持续多久？
源自BenCarson的“市场动态变得更快”：
标准普尔500指数在2018年9月20日创下历史新高。 在两个多月之后的圣诞节前夕，一次惨跌导致它下跌了19.8％。从高峰到低谷经历95天是自1998年标准普尔指数在短短45天内下跌19.3％以来最快的熊市。自圣诞节前一天触底（至少目前还是），股市已在短短几个星期上涨超过了10％。
本世纪初，互联网泡沫的熊市从上到下持续了两年半以上。然后，标准普尔500指数从2000年3月开始花了超过四年半的时间重新达到高点。另外，2011年下降19.4％，从高峰到低谷不到6个月，并在短短5个月内恢复到最高水平。1957年，股票在短短99天内下跌了21％，在不到一年的时间内恢复。然后是1980年至1982年的熊市，持续了20多个月，但在83天后恢复。在1987年的黑色星期一崩盘后，在不到一周的时间内股市下跌了33％，市场用了600天才恢复到高位。下表显示熊市后重新恢复到高点的平均（Average）所需时间及中间（Median）时间：
1月股票反弹继续
源自John Murphy， Stockcharts.com
美国所有主要股指都超过了50天的平均线（蓝线）。 但还有200天平均线去阻止反弹。另外还有一些其他阻力线仍需要测试。 下图显示道琼斯工业平均指数接近200天均线（红色箭头）的测试。 此外，10月/ 12月高点下跌趋势线也应该提供坚挺的上行阻力。 道琼斯指数必须清除这两个障碍，以确实重大向上转向。 其他两大股指也是如此。
市场上升和见顶
源自Lance Roberts，RealInvestmentAdvice.com
“正如我们两周前提出的那样，反弹继续进入2650-2700预期区间内。”“重要的是，此前深度'超卖'状况支持了圣诞节前夕的反弹现在已完全逆转回到极端“超买”领域。 虽然这并不意味着当前的反弹会立即逆转，但它确实显示当前上行幅度可能有限。“
最好的卖空格局？
源自Dana Lyons的Tumblr
VLG（Valueline Composite Geometric Composite，VLG跟踪大约1800只美国股票的表现) 在12月底和其他市场一起上升。在445点触底后，该指数在过去3周内飙升了约15％而挑战我们的“十年一度”的支撑水平510。这次反弹使VLG回归到 - 猜猜是什么水平？是的，是510水平附近。 因此，VLG的510水平会否继续显示其20多年来的代际相关性吗？ 重要的是，今天上午的行动已经将指数提升至516水平 - 这是否意味着指数，或许整体市场，现在已经走出困境？ 或者这一举动是否会转瞬即逝，导致该指数再次迅速失去510水平？ 在这种情况下，这个关键水平最终可能会终止这次市场的大幅反弹而导致价格回落并确认数十年的假突破。
趋势跟随量化基金的购买信号
源自彭博社
野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周曾预测，如果标准普尔500指数上涨至2,632.46点，那么被称为商品交易顾问（CTA）的趋势跟随量化基金将从空头转向。 现在指数已安全地高于突破水平，他的模型显示量化基金会从最高卖空率降至82％。 他的理论认为，目前，对冲基金和共同基金可能正在追赶进场。
他在一则消息中表示，“我的长期观点一直并将继续是基于系统规则的策略首先出现，最终迫使/正在继续迫使活跃的基本面投资者重返市场。” “持有Q4伤痛的资金并没有为这次升势做好准备，他们正在追干，积极入市中。“
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