NVDA Momentum Is Down NVDA 动力向下

Nvidia (NVDA) pre-announced its fourth quarter results. Revenue was nearly 20% below the company’s prior revenue guidance in November. Margins which came in 650 basis points below guidance. It may suggest that Nvidia has even seen peak margin expansion, as margins continue to contract. 

Management blamed “deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, particularly in China” as further harming demand for gaming chips. Additionally, management said the company’s datacenter business also fell short of expectations. “A number of deals in the company’s forecast did not close in the last month of the quarter as customers shifted to a more cautious approach,” the company said in a statement.

Raymond James cuts its target from $250 to $165 after revenue guidance cut. Analyst Chris Caso says "headwinds are mounting" for NVDA, according to the firm's internal checks, and lowers his EPS and revenue estimates for 2019 and 2020.

Cowen lowered price target from $265 to $215 but reiterated Outperform rating.

The Bench Market Company lowered price target from $240 to $190 but reiterated Buy rating.

Fundamentally, NVDA's forward PE is 19.36 compared with average semiconductor stock PE of around 13. It's valuation is not cheap.

Technically, NVDA gapped down 13.82% on 3.6 times its average volume today. Its short term momentum is down. On its daily chart, its December low is $124.50 and should serve as it's near term support. Its 50 day moving average near $150 is its resistance.  On its weekly chart, we can find support after $124.50 is it's historical and 200 week moving average support at around $121. NVDA looks likely to test this level.

Nvidia（NVDA）预先公布了其第四季度业绩。营业额比11月公司的先前指引低近20％。利润率低于指引的650个基点。这可能显示随着利润继续收缩，Nvidia 利润率或已经见顶了。

管理层称“宏观经济状况恶化，特别是在中国”，进一步损害了对游戏晶片的需求。此外，管理层表示，该公司的数据中心业务也未达到预期。该公司在一份声明中表示，“该公司预测的一些交易在本季度的最后一个月因为客户转向采取更加谨慎的态度而没有完成。”

NVDA营业额指引下调后，Raymond James将目标价从250美元下调至165美元。分析师Chris Caso表示，根据该公司的内部检查，NVDA的“逆风正在增加”，并降低了他对NVDA 2019年和2020年的每股盈利和营业额预期。

Cowen将目标价从265美元下调至215美元，但重申优于大盘评级。

Bench Market Company将目标价格从240美元下调至190美元，但重申买入评级。

从基本面上说，NVDA前瞻市盈率为19.36，而平均半导体股票市盈率则为13左右。估值并不便宜。

从技术上讲，NVDA今天的跌幅为13.82％，成交量是平均成交量的3.6倍。它的短期势头是下跌。在其日线图上，其12月低点为124.50美元，应该是近期支撑位。它的50日均线150美元是它的阻力。从周图上看，在124.50美元支撑被击穿后，历史性及200周均线121美元附近是下一个支撑水平。NVDA 很有可能会下探这个水平。