下周市场将走向何方？Which Way The Market Go Next Week?

今天收市道指收报23995.90 -6, 标普500 2595.65 -0.99, 纳指6969.70 -16.37, 罗素2000 1447.10 -1.67。它们还是低于它们的阻力水平分别是24000, 2600, 7008及1455。从12月26日低位，道指＋10.5%, 标普500 ＋10.6%, 纳指＋12.5%, 罗素2000 ＋14.1%。各大指数都已大升过并且正面对阻力及不被看好的第4季企业财报，照理市场回调的机会大。不过，自从三天前到了阻力后虽然它们都过不去但也不肯下来。近两日早盘都曾大跌过但收市前都又买盘进入推高股市。大升后在高位整理是强势的表现。这显示很多人还是对美股乐观的。短期美股方向还是难以判断的。那就要靠下星期企业财报结果来决定了。由于全球经济发展的不明朗，企业的盈利前景却不容乐观。所以美股在企业财报后下跌的机会大。

下星期具影响力的财报有：星期一的JPM, UNH, WFC, DAL, UAL。星期二的 BAC, GS, AA, CSX。星期四的MS, NFLX, AXP。星期五的SLB，VFC。

下星期的财报大都是银行。第四季度股票发行和并购不活跃将影响投资银行收入。 然而，稳健的贷款增长应该会增加净利息收入。 高盛(GS)的结果将受到严格审查，以了解1MDB马来西亚基金丑闻给银行带来的损失。Netflix (NFLX) 自从12底以来已经攀升了46％。NFLX下星四的财报非常关键，因为股价近来以反映了很多好消息。相信NFLX的财报将是最为危险的，或将会是拖累大市的股票。


Today, the Dow closed at 23,995.90 -6, S&P 500 2595.65 -0.99, Nasdaq 6696.78 -16.37, Russell 2000 1447.10 -1.67. They are still below their resistance levels of 24000, 2600, 7008 and 1455 respectively. From the low of December 26, the Dow +10.5%, S&P 500 +10.6%, Nasdaq +12.5%, Russell 2000 +14.1%. All major indices have risen sharply and facing resistances and the not so optimistic fourth quarter corporate earnings report,  the odd favors a market correction. However, since major indexes hit their the resistance three days ago, even though they have not broken above, they are not willing to come down either. In the past two days, they all fell sharply in the morning, but they were able to rally before the market close.  Consolidating near high prices is a show of strength for the market . This shows that many people are still optimistic about the US stock market. The short-term direction of US stocks is still difficult to judge. That will all depend on the results of corporate earning results next week and the coming weeks. Due to the uncertainty of global economy , the corporate profit prospects are not optimistic. Therefore, the chance of US stock market correction after the corporate earning reports is high.

Next week's influential earnings are: Monday's JPM, UNH, WFC, DAL, UAL. Tuesday's BAC, GS, AA, CSX. Thursday's MS, NFLX, AXP. Friday's SLB, VFC.

Next week's earnings are mostly from banks. Quiet stock issuance and mergers and acquisitions in the fourth quarter will affect investment bank income. However, steady loan growth should increase net interest income. The results of Goldman Sachs (GS) will be scrutinized to understand the losses that the 1MDB Malaysian fund scandal has brought to the bank. Netflix (NFLX) has climbed 46% since the bottom last December. NFLX's earnings report next Thursday is critical because the stock's recent rise has reflected a lot of good news.  NFLX's earning report seem most risky,  it probably will be a negative for the market.