Bullish And Bearish Reasons For The Market 市场看涨及看跌的理由

From reading blogs today, I found the following bullish and bearish reasons for the US stock market. In case you miss them, here they are:

Bullish Views：

The Fat Pitch (https://fat-pitch.blogspot.com) : SPX has gained more than 1.8% each week in the past 3 weeks. Since 1950, that has happened only 13 times. Over the next 1, 3 and 6 months, only one year experienced a significant drawdown (1973, the year of the oil embargo). The other 12 instances (92%) gained an average of another 6% and 9% in the next 3 and 6 months, respectively (table from Troy Bombardia).

On Wednesday, a "breakaway breadth thrust" occurred. As explained by Walter Deemer, this occurs when 10-day advancers are twice 10-day decliners. This sounds simple but it requires persistent strength without any intervening weakness over a 2 week period. In the past 70 years, this has occurred only 21 times.

According to Mr. Deemer: "Cyclical bull markets are traditionally heralded by breakaway momentum." And he's right: breakaway momentum like this has taken place at the start of 8 new bull markets (highlighted below). It has never taken place within the context of a bear market (table from Walter Deemer).

The rally off the Christmas Eve low has now exceeded 10% for SPX. A sharp fall (more than 15% in less than 3 months) followed by a sharp rally (at least 10% in 10 days) like this has only occurred 12 times in the past 75 years. Forward returns were very good:  SPX was higher 75% of the time after 3 months and 83% of the time after 12 months, with a median gain of 18% (from Bespoke).

In summary：Sharp falls of at least 15% have a strong tendency to have their original low retested in the weeks/months ahead. But what is notable this time is the exceptional breadth that has driven the indices higher: in the past 70 years, this has never taken place within the context of a bear market. The Christmas low may still get retested, but it seems likely to hold and new highs are probably ahead. Nothing in the stock market is ever guaranteed, but this has been the consistent, historical pattern.

Bearish Views：

Carl Swenlin （Stockcharts.com） : One of my favorite chart patterns is the wedge. Rising or falling, they arrive frequently and usually resolve predictably. On this chart there happen to be two rising wedge formations. The first one led us into the bull market top in September/October of 2018. It resolved downward, as expected, but I have to admit that the massive downside follow through was atypical to say the least. The current rising wedge off the December low should also resolve downward. That is not guaranteed, but, since we're in a bear market, it is more likely.

There has been a tremendous amount of “technical damage” done to the market in recent months which will take some time to repair. Important trend lines have been broken, major sell-signals are in place, and major moving averages have crossed each other signaling downward pressure for stocks. While the chart is a bit noisy, just note the vertical red lines. There have only been a total of 6-periods in the last 25-years where all the criteria for a deeper correction have been met. While the 2011 and 2015 markets did NOT fall into more protracted corrections due to massive interventions by Central Banks, the current decline has no such support currently.

今日阅读博文找到了一些看涨及看跌理由。如果你错过了，下面就是：

看涨的理由：

The Fat Pitch (https://fat-pitch.blogspot.com):  SPX在过去3周内每周上涨超过1.8％。 自1950年以来，这种情况只发生了13次。 在接下来的1, 3和6个月中，只有一年经历了显着的下跌（1973年，即石油禁运年）。 其他12个案例（92％）分别在接下来的3个月和6个月内平均增加了6％和9％（下表来自Troy Bombardia）。

周三，发生了“突破性的广泛推力”。 正如沃尔特·迪默（Walter Deemer）所解释的那样，10天的上升股票是10天下降股票的两倍。 这听起来很简单但动力需要持续，而且在2周的时间内没有在走弱。 在过去的70年里，这种情况只发生了21次。

Deemer先生表示：“周期性牛市传统上受到突破势头的预示。” 他是对的：像这样的突破势头发生在8个新牛市的开始（下面重点介绍）。 它从未在熊市的背景下发生过（下表由Walter Deemer提供）。

$SPX圣诞节前夕低点的反弹现已超过10％。 如此大幅下跌（不到3个月内跌幅超过15％），之后出现大幅反弹（10天内至少10％），这在过去的75年中仅发生了12次。 远期回报是非常好的：SPX在3个月后有75％和12个月后有83％时间上升，中位数涨幅为18％（来自Bespoke）。

总结：在至少15％的急剧下降后，很大机会在未来几周/几个月内重新测试其原来的低点。 但值得注意的是，这次指数走高有着特殊的广度：在过去的70年里，这种情况从未发生在熊市的背景下。 圣诞节低点可能仍会得到重新测试，但可能会稳住，而以后会在创新的高点。 股票市场中没有任何东西得到保证，但这是一贯的历史模式。


看跌的理由：

Carl Swenlin (stockcharts.com)：我最喜欢的图表模式之一是楔形。 上升或下降，他们经常发生并且通常都预测准确。 在这张图表上，碰巧有两个上升的楔形结构。 第一个引导我们进入2018年9月/ 10月的牛市顶部。它正如预期的那样向下急跌，但我不得不承认，这种大跌是非典型的。 目前12月低点的上升楔形也应该向下解决。 尽管这不能保证，但是，由于我们处于熊市，因此可能性更大。

Lance Roberts （RealinvestmentAdvice.com)：最近几个月市场出现了大量“技术损害”，需要一段时间才能修复。 重要趋势线已被打破，主要卖出信号已经到位，主要移动平均线相互交叉，表明股市的下行压力大。虽然图表有点杂乱，但请注意垂直的红线。 在过去25年中，总共只有6个时期满足了更深层次修正的所有标准。 虽然由于中央银行的大规模干预，2011年和2015年的市场没有陷入更持久的修正，但目前的下跌还没有得倒这样的支持。