一周回顾与展望 Weekly Look Back And Look Ahead

上周回顾：

苹果公司警告第一季度营业额未达预期。 一周股价下跌5.1％，现在已经从历史最高点下跌约38％。

美联储主席周五发表讲话，他所说的被视为对利息温和，并对市场恐慌做出回应。

中国周五下调存款准备金以鼓励更多银行贷款，其最新政策举措旨在结束经济放缓。

非农就业人口总数增加了32万，远远好于预期的18万。

强劲的12月份就业报告，鲍威尔的宽松评论，中国银行存款准备金率下调以及对中美贸易谈判的乐观情绪推动美国股市大幅上扬。上周五涨幅为：道指+746.94 + 3.29％，标准普尔500指数+84.05 + 3.43％，纳斯达克指数+ 275.35 + 4.26％，罗素2000 +49.92 + 3.75％。


本周展望：

美中贸易谈判将于1月7日星期一重新开始，市场对达成协议的预期很高。在苹果公司营业额低于预期，中国和其他国家疲弱的经济数据导致市场混乱后，达成协议的需求迫切。

美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔周四将在华盛顿特区经济俱乐部午餐会再次发表讲话。他预计会重复对加息的耐性与灵活性的鸽派信息。

本周发布的经济数据包括：周一的服务ISM和工厂订单，周二的国际贸易数据，周三的FOMC会议纪要以及周五的CPI通胀报告。令人满意的数据可能会进一步推动股市走势。

第四季企业财报开始，投资者将密切关注企业盈利警告和Q4公司收益发布。盈利结果不需要特别好，只要令人满意市场就会有正面回应。本周盈利公布 - 周三：Bed Bath and Beyond，KB Home KBH，Constellation Brands STZ，Lennar LEN，Schnitzer Steel STZ，周五：Infosys INFY

从技术面来看，主要市场指数已形成看涨的继续上行格局，而这种模式的第二次上升的开始将很有可能推动市场走高。


Last week look back:

Apple warned on Q1 revenue miss. Stock dropped 5.1% for the week and is now off its all time high by about 38%.

Fed chairman spoke on Friday, what he said was perceived as dovish and responsive to markets fear.

China cut reserve requirements Friday to encourage more bank lending, its latest policy move aimed at ending a slowdown.

Total non-farm payrolls increased by 312k , much better  than expected 180k.

Strong December jobs report ,Powell’s accommodative comments, China's bank reserve requirement cut and optimism on US-China trade talk drove the US stock market up strongly.
Last Friday's gains are: Dow +746.94 +3.29%, S&P 500 +84.05 +3.43%, Nasdaq +275.35 +4.26%, Russell 2000 +49.92 +3.75%.

Next week look ahead:

US-China trade talk to re-start Monday Jan7, expectations are high that a deal will be strike after market chaos driven by Apple's revenue miss and weak China and other countries economic data urged need to compromise.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaks again Thursday at an Economics Club of Washington D.C. luncheon. He is expected to deliver the same dovish message about flexibility when it comes to policy and patience when it comes to raising interest rates.

Economic Data releases this week are: Services ISM and Factory Orders on Monday , international trade data on Tuesday , FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and  Friday’s CPI inflation report. Satisfactory data will likely help stock market further.

As Q4 corporate earning releases start, investors will be on the look out for earnings warning and Q4 corporate earning releases. Earning results don't need to be great as long as they are satisfactory in order to be positive for the stock market. Earnings release this week –Wednesday: Bed Bath and Beyond , KB Home KBH,  Constellation Brands STZ, Lennar LEN, Schnitzer Steel STZ,  Friday: Infosys INFY

Technically, major market indices have formed bullish Continuation Up Pattern and the start of the 2nd up leg of this pattern will likely drive market higher.