纳斯达克综合指数回撤时机已成熟 The Nasdaq Composite Index is ripe for a pull back

纳斯达克综合指数自2018年12月26日的低点（6190）上涨12.8％。在下行趋势的市场中，这是一次强劲的反弹。现在是时候测试这次涨势的强势了，因为它在50日移动平均线7013处面临着强大的阻力。今天的高点仅比这个水平低28点。纳斯达克通常不太可能在没有任何回调的情况下通过这个阻力。今天$ COMPQ图表形成了过去7天中最小的蜡烛，这标志着一个大动作即将到来。它已经经历了一波强劲的上升，预计大幅下跌是合理的。

下行幅度会有多大？最近一次反弹幅度的38％回撤要求下跌至6683区域。这将是274点，下降3.9％。对于较有力量的反弹来说，这是一个正常的回调幅度。对于较弱的反弹，需要回撤50％。如果是这样，那要下降到6589。这将是一个368点，下降5.3％的回撤。无论如何，如果任何上述两种情况的一种发生都仍然是正常的回撤。最糟糕的情况是熊市继续，那么2018年12月26日的低点将被重新测试。


The Nasdaq Composite Index has rallied 12.8% from its December 26, 2018 low (6190). It has been a powerful bounce in a downtrend market. Now is the time to test the strength of this rally as it faces formidable resistance at 50 Day Moving Average level at 7013. Today's high was only 28 point short of this level. It is normally not likely for the Nasdaq to rally through this resistance without any pullback. Today $COMPQ chart formed the smallest candle of the last 7 days, this signals a big move is to follow. The fact that it has been up strongly, it is reasonable to anticipate a big down move is in the making.

How big will be the downside move? 38% retracement of the latest uptrend call for a drop to 6683 area. This would be a 274 point, 3.9% drop. This is a normal drop for a rally with strength. For a weaker rally, a 50% retracement is called for. If that's the case, it would be a drop to 6589. This would be a 368 point, 5.3% drop. In any case, if any of the above 2 cases happened, it is still consider as normal retracement.  The worst case would be the bear market returns and the December 26, 2018 low would be retested.