。China’s Vice Premier Liu He sits down with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer for two days of trade talks. This isn’t necessarily a make-or-break moment, but nervous investors have been hanging on every bullish and bearish twist in the trade war ahead of a March 1 deadline to reach a deal. ---Bloomberg
。Wednesday afternoon features Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s first monetary policy decision of the year. While the chance for an interest-rate move is near zero, reporters at his now regular post-FOMC press briefing will grill him on everything from his level of “patience” before the next hike to his plans for the central bank’s $4 trillion balance sheet. ---Bloomberg
。This week sees the release of gross domestic product data from France, Italy and Spain for the fourth quarter, as well as first estimate for the 19-nation euro zone. Almost every economic number out of the euro area recently has disappointed.
。The main event in Asia will be Thursday’s release of January PMI data for China. Economists see the gauge notching down further below the 50 line that indicates contraction. Japan releases industrial production data on Thursday, with economists expecting output to have dropped in the final month of last year.
。Friday’s employment report will offer one the clearest glimpses into the U.S. economy’s health in weeks, after many delayed reports during the government shutdown that ended last week. A Bloomberg survey of economists shows a median forecast for a gain of 160,000 in nonfarm payrolls in January, fewer than recent months but enough to keep the unemployment rate at 3.9 percent. ---Bloomberg
。Three Concerns Hanging Over the Davos Elite for 2019: 1. Signs of slowing global economic growth are increasing. 2. No matter how you slice it, public, corporate and individual debt levels around the world are at historical extremes. 3. Corporate Earnings Will Be Lower. ---Daily Reckoning
。The coming week will not only be the heaviest in terms of number of S&P500 companies reporting Q4 earnings, it will also see the peak of the current buyback blackout window. As JPMorgan shows in the chart below, in the week of Jan 29, roughly 60% of all companies will be prohibited from repurchasing their stock, a potential downside risk as should a negative catalyst emerge - say US-China Trade talks fail to impress - there will be far fewer companies able to provide a natural shock absorber to a rapid drop. ---zerohedge
Kim Wong notes: Raymond James has noted that it is typically two weeks prior to the end of the quarter through 48 hours after earnings are released corporates are not allow to purchase stock.
。本周有影响力的主要财报有：1/28 CAT，1/29 MMM，BIIB，PFE，AAPL，AMD，1/30 BABA，BA，T，MCD，FB，MSFT，1/31 MA，CELG，UPS ，AMZN，2/1 XOM。 CVX，MRK，2/4 GOOGL。
。本周三中国国务院副总理刘鹤与美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱希特（Robert Lighthizer）将进行为期两天的贸易谈判。 这不一定是一个成败的时刻，但在3月1日达成交易的最后期限之前，紧张的投资者一直利用贸易谈判中的每一个消息来判断看涨和看跌。---Bloomberg
。周三下午是美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔今年的第一个货币政策决定。 虽然利率变动的可能性接近于零，但记者在他的常规FOMC后新闻发布会上将从他在下次加息之前的“耐心”水平到他对央行4万亿美元资产负债表的计划中提出质问。---Bloomberg
。本周第四季度法国，意大利和西班牙国内生产总值数据以及欧元区19个国家的首次估计数据将公布。几乎每个近期欧元区的经济数字都令人失望。
。亚洲的主要事件将是周四发布的1月中国PMI数据。经济学家认为，该指标会进一步低于50线，显示收缩。 日本周四将发布工业生产数据，经济学家预计产量将在去年最后一个月下降。
。非农就业报告将在星期五的发布。 彭博社对经济学家的一项调查显示，1月非农就业人数增加160,000，低于近几个月，但足以将失业率维持在3.9％。---Bloomberg
。达沃斯精英对2019年的三个担忧：1。全球经济增长放缓的迹象正在增加。 无论你如何分割它，世界各地的公共，企业和个人债务水平都处于历史极端。 3.企业盈利将会下降。---Daily Reckoning
。未来一周不仅是报告第四季度财报的标准普尔500指数公司数量最多，它也将看到当前停止股票回购窗口的高峰。 正如摩根大通在下图所示，在1月29日那一周，大约60％的公司将被禁止回购他们的股票，如果有负面催化剂股市潜在的下行风险应该出现- 比如美中贸易谈判未能给人留下深刻印象 - 能够为快速下降提供天然减震器的公司将会少很多。---zerohedge
Kim Wong 注释: Raymond James称通常在季度结束前两周到财报公布后48小时不准企业回购股票。
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