那些高市值的科技龙头股值得短期炒涨 Large Cap Tech Stocks That's Worth Trading Up

我建立了下表对高科技大盘股（资本金超过100亿美元）进行了比较。从这张表中我们可以看到，IBM，AAPL，FB，NFLX和AMZN从历史高位已经下跌了20％以上，所以他们处于熊市中。而MSFT，CSCO，ORCL，GOOGL和INTC下跌不到20％，因此它们是处于修正区域。股息支付股票跌幅低于没有股息的股票（IBM除外）且PE较低（他们是MSFT，CSCO，ORCL，INTC和IBM）。令人惊讶的是，有股息及低PE股票的IBD累积/散发评级都很低。由于这些股票的累积/散发都是D-和Es，显示聪明的资金对这些低PE和股息支付股票还没感兴趣。IBD的另一个重要评份是综合评分。 分数越高，公司的基本面就越稳固。

具有不同目标的投资者会选择不同的股票。 对我来说，现在短期内可交易的股票是高PE股票如NFLX和AMZN，因为他们的累积/散发评级分别为B-和C（为列表中股票的最高）显示聪明的资金对他们感兴趣。事实证明，跟随聪明的资金短期内取得良好效果的机会大。另外NFLX和AMZN的综合评分分别是十分强劲的89及88。GOOGL也很有意思，因为它不是在熊市中，市盈率是合理的并且综合评分是强劲的92，加上累积/散发已经提升到D-（至少不是E）。


High tech big cap stocks (capitalization over $100B) are compared in the following table. From this table we observe that IBM, AAPL, FB, NFLX and AMZN are down from their all
time high by more than 20%, so they are in bear market. While MSFT, CSCO, ORCL, GOOGL and INTC are down less than 20%, so they are in correction territory. Dividend paying stocks
drop less than no dividend stocks (except IBM) and have lower PEs (they are  MSFT, CSCO, ORCL, ,INTC and IBM). Surprisingly IBD's Accumulation/Distribution ratings indicates smart money are not interested in these low PE and dividend paying stocks yet since their Accumulation/Distribution are D- and Es.   Another important rating from IBD is the Composite Rating. The higher the score the more solid the companies fundamental is.

Investors with different objectives will pick stocks differently. For me, stocks that are tradable to the upside short term are high PE stocks such as NFLX and AMZN, since their Accumulation/Distribution ratings are B- and C （highest in the table） indicate smart money are interested in them.  Following smart money has proven to get good results short term. In addition, the NFLX and AMZN scores are very strong 89 and 88 respectively. GOOGL is also interesting since it's not in bear market, PE ratio is reasonable and its composite ratings is very solid at 92, Accumulation/Distribution has lifted to D- (at least not E).


Sym       Price     %down     Forward     PEG     Dividend     Acc/Dis     Comp
                            from Hi    PE                                                                 rating

AAPL    148.26    -35%        10.13          0.94     1.97%         E                57
AMZN   1575.39  -23%        58.97          2.19     0                 C                88
FB          137.95    -37%        18.52          1.04     0                 D                74
GOOGL 1078.07  -17%        22.86          1.74     0                 D-               92
NFLX     297.57   -30%        71.47          1.67      0                 B-               89
INTC      47.22     -18%        10.33          1.07     2.54%          E                 95
MSFT     101.93   -12%        20.26          1.78     1.84%          E                 99
CSCO     42.92     -13%        12.97          1.93     3.08%          E                 73
ORCL     46.71     -13%        12.73          1.74     1.63%          D-               86
IBM        117.32   -46%          8.43           9.98     5.35%         D-                33