The market is not for sure safe to the upside yet, stay tune! 市场仍不能确定安全上行，保持观望！

After a dull morning session, but stocks started to surge in the afternoon sparked by a WSJ report that the U.S. is considering lifting tariffs on Chinese imports while trade negotiations continue. At today's high , the Dow was up over 267 points.  Major market indexes fell back from the days highs before close. At the close: Dow +162.94 to 24370.10, S&P 500 +19.86 to 2635.96, Nasdaq +49.77 to 7084.46 and Russell 2000 +12.65 to 1467.35. 

Now the Dow, S&P 500 ,Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are all closed above their 50 day moving averages at 24346, 2627 , 6984 and 1449 respectively. Technically, the US stock market trend has now turned from down to up, assuming that they are able to stay above these level for a couple more days. Regardless, the recent strength of the market should be respected.

Risks are still around however. After the close, Netflix (NFLX) posted better-than-expected earnings but lower revenue than estimated. The guidance for Q1 is also disappointing because it spends $15 million a day. NFLX fell 3.7% in after hour trading. Chip stocks and Apple suppliers earnings are also the concern now after TSMC's (TSM) earnings report included gloomy revenue guidance due to building inventory after the sudden and substantial drop in high-end smart phones. The market still need to overcome high tech earnings starting next week.  Also, the news that had the market surging today may not be a reality. The idea of lifting some or all tariffs was proposed by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in a series of strategy meetings, according to people close to internal deliberations. But Mr. Mnuchin faces resistance from U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who is concerned that any concession could be seen as a sign of weakness, these people said. News just came out that US is not sending delegation to the Davos meeting, this means there's no US-China trade talk the end of the month.

The market is not for sure safe to the upside yet, stay tune!


经过一个沉闷的上午，但下午股市开始飙升，这是由于“华尔街日报”报道，美国正在考虑在贸易谈判继续进行的同时暂停增加对中国进口产品的关税。在今天的高点，道琼斯指数上涨超过267点。收市时主要市场指数从日内高位回落。各大指数收盘情况：道琼斯指数+162.94至24370.10，标准普尔500指数+19.86至2635.96，纳斯达克指数+49.77至7084.46，罗素2000指数+12.65至1467.35。

现在，道琼斯指数，标准普尔500指数，纳斯达克指数和罗素2000指数均收于它们的50日移动均线之上，它们分是24346, 2627, 6984和1449水平。从技术上讲，美国股市的走势现在已经从下跌转为上升，假设它们能够在未来几天内保持在这个水平之上的话。无论如何，最近市场的强势是应该受到尊重的。

市场下跌的风险仍然存在。收盘后，Netflix（NFLX）的盈利好于预期，但收入低于预期及第一季度的指引也令人失望。 NFLX在盘后交易中下跌3.7％。台积电（TSM）收益报告显示高端智能手机突然大幅下挫后建立库存导致收入指引黯淡之后，芯片公司和苹果供应商的盈利也将受到打击。市场仍需要克服从下周开始发布的高科技公司财报。此外，今天市场飙升的消息可能还不是现实。据接近内部审议的人士称，财政部长史蒂芬·努钦（Steven Mnuchin）在一系列战略会议上提出取消部分或全部关税的想法。但是，这些人说，Mnuchin先生面临美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱希特（Robert Lighthizer）的反对。他担心任何让步都可能被视为软弱的迹象。再者，刚刚发布的消息说，美国将不会派代表团参加达沃斯会议，这意味着本月底没有美中贸易谈判。

市场仍不能确定安全上行，保持观望！