US Stock Risen Sharply But Worries Have Not Changed 美国股市大幅上涨但忧虑依旧

The 200 Day Moving Averages for Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are 24963, 2741, 7451 and 1592 respectively. From Friday's closes they are 263 points (1%), 70 points (2.6%), 294 points (4.1%) and 110 points (7.4%) away from their 200 Day Moving Averages respectively. Since Dow is only 1%, 263 points away, the closest to its resistance among indexes, so Dow should be the index to watch closely.

The Dow has moved up sharply by 13.8% from its December low. Dow's support is its 50 Day Moving Average at 24330 and resistance is at 200 Day Moving Average at 24963 level. Secondary support is its 20 Day Moving Average at 23471 level.

Technically, there are signs that the Dow may be ready to reverse its sharp bounce from December bottom and coming down: 1. Stochastic indicator shows it's extremely over bought. 2. Market's Put/ Call Ratio is low and at reversing level. 3. Ease of Movement indicator is diverging with the index(it is easier to go down then up). 4. It is very close to 200 Day Moving Average resistance.

Fundamentally, worries are still dead ahead: 1.  Worrisome tech earning reports start this week: IBM, TXN,  LRCX, XLNX, INTC, WDC.  2. No resolution on government shut down. 3. Federal Reserve reducing balance sheet. 4. IMF reduces world economic growth to 3.5% for 2019, slowest in 3 years.
5. China's growth is the weakest in 28 years. 6. No deal Brexit worry in UK. 7. Stock market may be too optimistic on US-China trade deal. 8. Germany GDP growth is only 1.5%.


道指，标准普尔500指数，纳斯达克指数和罗素2000指数的200天移动平均线分别为24963,2741,7451和1592。 从周五收盘价，它们距离200天移动平均线分别还差263点（1％），70点（2.6％），294点（4.1％）和110点（7.4％）。 由于道指仅为1％，263点之差，是指数中最接近其阻力位的指数，因此道指应该是要密切关注的指数。

道指已从12月低位大幅反弹了13.8％。道指的支撑位是其50日移动平均线24330水平，阻力位于200天移动平均线24963水平。下一支撑位是其20天移动平均线23471水平。

从技术面来看，有迹象显示道琼斯指数可能已准备好从12月触底后的大幅反弹回落：1。随机指标显示该指数已极度超买。 2。市场看跌期权/看涨期权比率较低且处于反转水平。 3.易于移动指标与指数分歧（它下降比较上升更容易。4。非常接近200天移动平均线阻力。

从基本面上说，担忧仍然存在：1。不被看好的科技财报本周开始：IBM，TXN，LRCX，XLNX，INTC，WDC。2。 没有关于解决政府关闭的决议。 3。美联开始储减少资产负债表。 4。国际货币基金组织将2019年世界经济增长率降至3.5％，为3年来最慢增长。5。中国的增长是28年来最弱的6.6%。 6。担心英国无妥协脱欧。 7。股市可能对美中贸易谈判过于乐观。8。德国GDP增长只有1.5%。