These 3 High probability indicators Call For Near Term Market Correction 这3个高概率指标指向近期市场调整在即

The Dow （$indu）,  S&P500($spx), Nasdaq 100($ ndx)and Russell 2000(IWM) have now all reached all time highs after reacting to bullish news such as Covid-19 Vaccines to be available soon, Biden most likely will be the next president, Q3 earnings are mostly positive and dovish former Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen is selected as the the person to head the US Treasury.  Good news has all discounted. However, investors have been ignoring surging new Covid-19 cases and economic stimulus is not likely this year both likely hurt the economy. Meanwhile, the following 3 reliable market indicators are calling for imminent market correction. They are CNN's Fear & Greed Indicator, Index Put Call Ratio ($CPC) and Equity Put Call Ratio ($CPCE). These indicators all points to extreme bullishness and the market will likely cool off in the near term. The first two downside targets are 20 day moving average 3531 and 50 day moving average 3446, they repreesent 2.8% and 5.2% down respectively.

The CNN Fear & Greed Indicator is at 92 today, the second most extreme greed level since January this year. This extreme level usually indicates a stock market correction is imminent.

The Index Put Call Ratio ($CPC) and Equity Put Call Ratio ($CPCE) are both near extreme low levels that also indicate imminent market reversal down.

道琼斯指数（$indu），标准普尔500指数($spx)，纳斯达克100($ndx)和罗素2000 (IWM)在一系列利好消息做出反应后，现在都已创下了历史新高。这些利好消息是Covid-19疫苗将面世，拜登很可能将成为下一任总统，第三季度的财报大多为正面及鸽派前美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦被选为下届财政部长。利好已完全备反影了。 然而，投资者一直无视新的Covid-19案件及死亡人数激增和今年不太可能有经济刺激措施出台，两者都会损害经济。 另外，以下3个可靠的市场指标均显示市场修正在即。 它们是CNN的“恐惧与贪婪”指标，指数看跌及看涨期权比率（$ CPC）和股票看跌及看涨期权比率（$ CPCE）。 这些指标都表明极端看涨情绪，短期市场可能会降温。前两个下行目标是20日移动平均线3531和50日移动平均线3446，它们分别代表下跌2.8％和5.2％。

CNN恐惧与贪婪指标今天为92，是自今年一月以来第二高的极端贪婪水平。 这种极端水平通常显示股市调整即将来临。

指数看跌及看涨期权比率（$ CPC）和股票看跌及看涨期权比率（$ CPCE）都接近极低水平，这也预示着市场即将反转向下。

These Indicators Point To Short Term Market Downside Reversal 这些指标显示短期市场会逆转下行

 Latest bullish news for the US stock market are:

1. Most analysts/economists are now bullish on the market. 

2. Multiple good news on the Covid-19 vaccines.

3. Biden becomes the next president is pretty sure.

4. Dovish former Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellan is selected by Biden as the next Treasury Secretary.

All these good news are good for stock market next year.  But good news are mostly out, what else is to expect for the short term? Meanwhile, investors sentiment is too bullish for more short term upside. 

The CNN Money's Fear & Greed Index has reached the second highest point in the the last 3 years. It is now at 88 a very extreme greedy level. As the chart below shows, every time this index reached to around 80 the stock market reversed down. 

The following chart shows investors have piled their money into the stock market the most now since 2002,  a show of exuberance.

The following chart shows asset buying momentum is at its peak level indicating everything is risk on and market becomes risky.

Now the most accurate short term indicator: Put Call ratio. Both the Index Put Call Ratio  (CPC) and Equity Put Call Ratio (CPCE) are near their historically lows, historically they usually followed by a downside reversal for the stock market. Since the day before thanks giving and after thanksgiving stock market are usually up, may be the market will reverse down next week.

美国股市最新的利好消息有：

1.大多数分析师/经济学家现在都对市场看涨。

2.有关Covid-19疫苗的多个好消息已经发布。

3.拜登成为下一任总统非常确定。

4.拜登任命鸽派前美联储主席Janet Yellan为下一任财政部长。

所有这些好消息对明年的股市都是有利的。 但是，好消息大多出炉了，短期还有什么期望呢？ 另外，短期内投资者情绪也过于乐观。

美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）的恐惧与贪婪指数现在已经达到在过去三年来的第二高点。 现在是88，这是一个非常极端的贪婪水平。 如下图所示，每当该指数达到80附近时，股市就会反转向下。

下图显示了自2002年以来投资者将资金投入股市最多就是现在。这是有些过度。

下图显示资产购买动能处于峰值水平，表明各行业股票都被大量买入，市场变得充满风险。

我觉得最准确的短期指标是看跌看涨期权比率。 指数看跌看涨期权比率（CPC）和股票看跌看涨期权比率（CPCE）都接近历史低点，从历史上看，它们通常随之而来的就是股市的下行逆转。由于感恩节的前一天和感恩节之后一天的股市通常都会上涨，因此下周市场才下跌的机会大。

NIO Is A Bubble Bursting NIO泡沫破裂

Investors's extreme bullish sentiment pushed NIO from October 4, 2019's $1.19 all the way up to today's high of $54.20, a crazy 4455% return in 13 months! A series good news such as company delivering more vehicles last month, XPeng (XPEV) reported better earnings two days ago and Li Auto (LI) reported better earnings yesterday have been driving the bullishness of NIO to extreme. It is a classic sell on news opportunity. After NIO made a high of $54.20 earlier today, it has since reversed back down to $44.92, this is a classic bubble bursting signal in a stock.  NIO is too speculative to invest for the long term, it's better for trading long and short side for the short term. Following are some negatives for NIO:

1. Investors have no sense of how to match fundamentals with stock price, the only thing in their mind is  the company's future may be as good or even better than TSLA. This kind of word of mouth feeds from one investors to another and to hundreds and thousands others who rarely investigate into the companies fundamentals or understand what's going on in the business.  Investors are banking on NIO's intangible value that is hard to measure. Now the stock price has risen 4455% in the last 13 months making it a gigantic bubble ready to burst. NIO stock price has reflected a perfect future growth scenario and leave no room for errors. 

2, In September, global electric car sales listed NIO number 20 only in rank with up to September sales of merely 26498 cars this year. It's sales rank even lower than Ford (F) 's 17 and 30432 cars up to September sales. There is too much competition in the EV business.

3. Price to Sales ratio is a good way to measure valuation of a stock. The lower the Price to Sales the better. NIO's Price to Sales ratio is a whopping 45 times compares to other car makers such as TSLA's 14, TM's 0.87, GM's 0.50 and F's 0.26. NIO is way overvalue.

4. The consensus price target of 15 analysts rated NIO at $22.35. 

5. NIO is not making any money yet and has a negative Book Value of $-0.83.

6. Famous short-seller Citron Research recommended investors to sell the stock today, citing pricing pressure posed by bigger rival Tesla Inc in the Chinese market. "Anyone buying NIO stock now is not buying a company or its prospects, rather you are buying 3 letters that move on a screen," Citron"s Andrew Left said in the note. Citron's downside target for NIO is $25.

7. Technicals: NIO reversed from up to down today and has formed a bearish Dark Cloud Cover pattern on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, it has formed a bearish long tail reversal pattern after a vertical move up for weeks. The first two downside targets are its 20 day and 50 day moving averages and they are $34.79 and $26.17.

投资者的极端看涨情绪推动NIO从2019年10月4日的1.19美元一路攀升至今天的高点54.20美元，在13个月内达到了4455％的疯狂涨幅！一系列好消息，例如公司上个月交付了更多车辆，XPeng(XPEV)两天前报告了好于预期的收益，而昨天Li Auto (LI)也报告了好于预期的收益将NIO的看涨情绪推向了极端。这是经典的好消息出来后卖出的机会。 NIO在今天早些时候创下54.20美元的高位后，随后又回落至44.92美元，这是股票中典型的泡沫破灭信号。 NIO的投机性太强，无法作长期投资，短期内进行多空交易比较好。以下是对NIO的一些负面因素：

1.投资者不知道如何将基本面与股价相匹配，他们唯一想到的是公司的未来可能和TSLA一样甚至更好。这种口口相传从一个投资者传给另一个投资者，再到成千上万的其他人，而他们都很少调查公司的基本面或了解业务的发展。投资者正在觉秋NIO的难以衡量的无形价值。现在，股价在过去13个月中上涨了4455％，使其成为一个巨大的泡沫，随时可能破裂。NIO的股价已经反映出理想的未来增长前景，并且不能有错误的余地。

2、9月份，全球电动汽车销量NIO 只排行第20位，而今年截至9月的销量仅为26498辆。截至9月，它的销售排名甚至低于福特（F）的排名第17和30432辆车。这个行业的竟争太剧烈了。

3.价格/销售额比率（Price to Sales) 是衡量股票估值的一种好方法。这个比率越低越好。NIO的 价格/销售额比率高达45倍。与其他汽车制造商（如TSLA的14，TM的0.87，GM的0.50和F的0.26）相比， NIO的价格是极端被高估的。

4. 15位分析师的NIO共识目标价只为22.35美元。

5. NIO尚未盈利，账面价值为-0.83美元。

6.著名卖空机构Citron Research建议投资者今天抛售股票，理由是更大的竞争对手特斯拉（Tesla Inc.）在中国市场造成的定价压力。 Citron的Andrew Left在笔记中说：“现在购买NIO股票的任何人都不是在购买公司或其前景，而是在购买3个在报价屏幕上移动的字母。” Citron对NIO定下的下行目标是25美元。

7.技术分析：NIO今天从上向下反转，并在日线图上形成了看跌的“乌云盖顶”模式。在周线图上，它在垂直上涨数周后形成了看跌的长尾反转形态。NIO首先两个下行目标是20天和50天移动平均线水平，分别是34.79美元和26.17美元。阻力位54.20美元。

Long Term Good, Short Term Bad 长期好，短期坏

Major stock market indexes rose sharply and made intraday all time highs today but both the Dow and S&P 500 have settled a lot lower than their highs and the Nasdaq Composite turned significantly lower.  The Dow at one point rose around 1700 points at it's high and is the biggest single day point move ever. Major news that drove the market up are Biden wins the presidency and Pfzer/Biontech's  Covid-19 vaccine is 90% effective. While Biden's winning of the presidency is good for the stock market overall in the long run , however buy on rumor sell on news action and there are a few market risks that may derail the rally near term:

。Republicans and Trump continue to contest election results in several states which may cause delay in presidential transition and creates uncertainty. According to a twit from a data scientist using time series data'scraped' from the New York Times website, the data-comparing several states (swing and non-swing)-clearly illustrates what fraud does and does not look like, and how several anomalies in swing states left'fingerprints of fraud' as Biden pulled ahead of President Trump.

。No clear majority win in both senate seat race in Geogia is causing run off election in Janauary 5, 2021. The result in January is crucial as it will determine whether democrate or republican in control of US Senate. If democrate wins both seats, there will be 50 democrates and 50 republican senators in the senate. The tied breaker vote will go to the Vice President which is Kamala Harris assuming Binden win is confirmed. This will make Binden's high tax policy passing easily and is a concern for the stock market. 

。There is worry on high PE tech stock sell off as investors rotate from growth into value stocks. This is evident today as tech heavy Nasdaq Composite underperforms other indexes. Technically, the Nasdaq Composite made new highs earlier today but gave up all the gains and turn negative does not look good for the market since it has formed Triple Top pattern. It is tough for the stock market to go any where without the help of big cap tech stocks.

。Meanwhile the continue worsening Covid-19 pandemic may drag on the economy before vaccine and economic stimulus come along. "The United States topped 10 million cases Monday as global cases surpassed 50 million. The 10 million number was reached just 10 days after the U.S. reached 9 million cases." ---CNBC  "The COVID-19 coronavirus continues to spread in Europe. In Italy, the most affected country so far, the number of coronavirus cases has risen to 7,375 and the number of deaths to 366 as data from Johns Hopkins University shows. In total there over 12,000 confirmed cases in Europe. After Italy, France has the most cases (1,209), with 19 deaths recorded so far. Germany has 1,040 cases-of which 18 have recovered and none so far have died. Spain has 673, with 17 deaths recorded at the time of writing."---Statista. 

The following 3 graphs are sourced from Finviz.com:

Followings is a summary his major policies from New York Times:

"Coronavirus

Biden made combating the pandemic a central message of his campaign for months, arguing that the nation would be better off if he were in charge. 

Healthcare

Biden supports expanding the Affordable Care Act and creating a public option — a plan he has nicknamed Bidencare. He has denounced Republican efforts to overturn the health care law, and vowed to ensure that Americans with pre-existing conditions will continue to have access to health care.

Economy

Biden has a sweeping economic recovery plan, under the moniker “Build Back Better,” that promises to create millions of job. In his plan, Mr. Biden has tied the economic revival to tackling climate change, racial equity and reinvestment in American manufacturing.

Among his proposals are a $300 billion increase in government spending on research and development of technologies, like electric vehicles and 5G cellular networks, and an additional $400 billion in federal procurement spending on products that are manufactured in the United States.

To discourage American companies from moving jobs to other countries, known as offshoring, he proposed a 10 percent “offshoring penalty surtax” that would apply to “profits of any production by a United States company overseas for sales back to the United States.”

Taxes

Biden wants to partially repeal the Trump tax overhaul, rolling back tax cuts for corporations and the highest earners. He has proposed increasing the corporate tax rate to 28 percent, from 21 percent.

But he has said that he will keep tax cuts in place for other households, including those in the middle class, and he has promised that no one making under $400,000 will pay higher taxes. 

Climate Change

Biden laid out a plan over the summer to spend $2 trillion to develop clean energy and eliminate emissions from the power sector by 2035. In addition to the coronavirus pandemic, the resulting economic crisis and racial injustice, he has referred to climate change as one of four “historic crises” that the United States is facing. 

But notably, he has declined to support the Green New Deal, a sweeping climate plan embraced by progressive groups and criticized by Republicans, though his website calls it a “crucial framework.”

And while Mr. Trump has accused Mr. Biden of wanting to “ban fracking,” Mr. Biden has repeatedly said he will not do so. Instead, he has proposed ending the permitting of new fracking on federal lands, but he is not proposing a national ban."

主要股市指数今天大幅上涨并创出历史新高，但收市时道指及标普500都比高点低很多而纳指则大幅下跌。道琼斯指数一度上涨约1700点，是有史以来最大的单日涨幅。驱使市场上升的重大消息是拜登赢得总统选举和Pfzer / Biontech的Covid-19疫苗的有效性是90%。虽然拜登赢得总统选举对股市长远看好，但投资人趁好消息获利卖出的卖压及下面几个市场风险可能会破坏短期上升趋势：

。共和党人和特朗普继续对几个州选举结果有争议，这可能会导致总统过渡推迟，并带来不确定性。根据一位数据科学家的推文，他使用了《纽约时报》网站上“抓取的”时间序列数据，数据比较多个州（摇摆州和非摇摆州）清楚地说明了欺诈行为的做法和合法的做法，以及几种欺诈行为的真实性。当拜登领先特朗普总统时，摇摆状态的异常留下了“欺诈的指纹”。

。因为在Geogia的两个参议院议席选举都没有明显的以大比数胜出而导致要在到2021年1月5日重选。1月的选举结果至关重要，因为它将决定是民主党还是共和党控制美国参议院。如果民主党赢得两个席位，参议院将有50名民主党人和50名共和党参议员。打破平局的决定者将是副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris），如果确定拜登获胜的话。这将使拜登的高税收政策轻松通过，并成为股票市场的担忧。

。随着投资者从增长型股票转向价值型股票，人们担心高市盈率科技股会遭到抛售。今天，这已很明显，因为科技股含量高的纳斯达克综合指数跑输其他指数。从技术上讲，纳斯达克综合指数今天早些时候创出新高，但收市时放弃了所有涨幅而转为下跌，造成了当日逆转并已经形成了三重顶的看跌形态。这对市场而言并不好， 因为没有大型科技股的帮助，股市很难有大进展。

。另外，持续恶化的Covid-19大流行可能会在疫苗和经济刺激措施出现之前拖累经济下滑。 “星期一，美国的病例数突破了1000万，全球病例数超过了5000万。在美国达到900万例后仅10天这一数字就达到了1000万。” --- CNBC “约翰·霍普金斯大学的数据显示，COVID-19冠状病毒继续在欧洲蔓延。迄今为止，受影响最严重的意大利，今天冠状病毒的病例数已增至7,375例，死亡人数为366例。今天 欧洲总共有12,000例确诊病例。仅次于意大利，法国是第二个最多的病例的国家（1,209例），有19例死亡；德国有1,040例，其中18例已经康复，没有死亡；西班牙有673例， 有17人死亡。” --- Statista。

以下三图源自Finviz.com:

以下是《纽约时报》总结拜登的主要政策摘要：

新冠病毒

“拜登以积极抗击这种流行病作为他竞选活动的中心信息，他认为，如果他掌管国家，国家会更好。

卫生保健

拜登（Biden）支持扩大《平价医疗法案》（Affordable Care Act）并创建一种公共选择权-他将这一计划昵称为“拜登医疗法案（Bidencare）”。他谴责共和党推翻医疗保健法的努力，并发誓要确保患有先决条件的美国人将继续获得医疗保健。

经济

拜登（Biden）制定了一项全面的经济复苏计划，该计划的名称为“ Build Back Better”，旨在创造数百万个工作岗位。拜登在其计划中将经济复兴与应对气候变化，种族平等和对美国制造业的再投资联系起来。在他的建议中，政府将在电动汽车和5G蜂窝网络等技术研发方面增加3000亿美元的政府支出，另外还将在美国制造的产品上增加4000亿美元的联邦采购支出。为了阻止美国公司将工作转移到其他国家（称为离岸外包），他提出了10％的“离岸罚款附加费”，适用于“美国公司在海外销售回美国的任何产品的利润”。

税收

拜登希望部分废除特朗普的为企业和收入最高的人减税税制。他提议将企业税率从21％提高到28％。但是他说过，他将继续为包括中产阶级在内的其他家庭减税，并且他承诺，年收入低于40万美元的人不会缴纳高的税款。

气候变化

拜登在夏季制定了一项计划，计划花费2万亿美元发展清洁能源，并在2035年之前消除电力部门的废气排放。除了冠状病毒大流行，随之而来的经济危机和种族不公正外，他还把气候变化称为美国面临的“历史四大危机”之一。但值得注意的是，尽管他的网站称其为“关键框架”，但他拒绝支持绿色新政。绿色新政是进步组织所接受，共和党人批评的全面气候计划。尽管特朗普先生指控拜登先生想“禁止水力压裂产油”，但拜登先生一再表示他不会这样做。相反，他提议终止允许在联邦土地上进行新压裂的许可，但他没有提议实行全国禁令。”

Perfect Time To Sell Ahead Of Election Result 这是选举结果前卖出的最好时机

The S&P 500 has risen nearly 5 % from the low of two days ago and is facing 50 day moving average resistance at 3400. Technically the market is rallying on a downtrend. It is likely that it will come back down when resistance is reached. Investors are too eager to get ahead of the election results and betting that everything will be fine after the election.  This is  a show of too much complacency.  Investors with cool heads should  not bet on the election outcome and its effect on the financial markets. It is now a perfect time to sell to avoid the uncertainties of the election. We don't know who will win, whether there will be contention on the result, how long will it take to decide who wins and whether there will be violent on the streets. Meanwhile, Covid-19 infections are getting worse and non-farm payroll is to be reported on Friday. Too much risk ahead!

标准普尔500指数已从两天前的低点上涨了近5％，并面临3400的50天移动平均线 阻力。技术上美股正在下跌趋势中反弹， 当达到阻力时，它很可能就会回落。 投资者太渴望入市了并押注选举后一切都会好起来。 这实在是太乐观了。 头脑冷静的投资者不应押注选举结果及其对金融市场的影响。 现在是卖出股票的最佳时机，以避免选举的不确定性。 我们不知道谁会赢，结果是否存在争执，决定谁获胜需要多长时间，以及街上是否会发生暴力。 与此同时，Covid-19感染正在恶化及周五将报告非农就业数据。 未来风险太大！

Analysts Are Too Bullish On Tech Stocks 分析师过份看好科技股

Wall Street analysts are too bullish on tech stocks. On Friday's tech wrack day, some of them rush to raise price targets of the falling mega tech stocks. They are doing these by ignoring market is in a serious down trend, worsening Covid-19 pandemic and pre and post election uncertainties. Uncertainty about COVID-19 is causing firms to pull their forecasts for quarterly results. These companies include 3M (MMM) , Caterpillar(CAT) and Apple (AAPL) while FaceBook (FB) warns Of "Significant Uncertainty" ahead. What makes these analysts so certain about the future? 

Even after the recent sharp drop, the Forward PE ratios on these big techs (AMZN 72, AAPL 29.71, FB 27.42, GOOG 27.77, MSFT 27.96, NVDA 46.99, TSLA 115.27, TWTR 68.81) are still way over the projected S&P 500 Forward PE of 24.19 (this is already high since the normal PE through out history is about 15-17). After 7 months of expansion, this may be the time for the PE expansion to stop and start to shrink back to normal. Also even after the recent big pull back, the above mentioned stock still up a lot this year with AAPL +48.29%, AMZN +64.31%,FB +28.19%,GOOG +21.24%, MSFT +28.39%, NVDA+113.07%,TSLA +363.80% and TWTR +29.05%. These high valuations in big cap stocks may force investors to diversify from growth stocks to value stocks.

Many cloud and work at home stocks such as OSTK, FSLY, WDAY and DOCU are down 56%, 54%, 39% and 30% respectively from there highs. And they are still up 696%, 216%,28% and 173% this year. These companies are not even making money yet. Their prices are discounting a lot of good news. For people who like to chase these high flying stocks, be ready for big losses when they come down. 

Meanwhile, many European countries are on lockdowns and the United States recorded 99321 virus infections on Friday as scientists warn latest surge is just beginning. Virus experts are expecting big increase of infections and deaths in the coming weeks as they expect what is happening in Europe is coming to in this county with 3 weeks delay.  The economy is going to dip again. As far as the presidential election is concern, even though polls indicate Biden is leading trump, but the general consensus is votes are going to be tight and uncertainty is going to create chaos.  

Dow is now trying to hold at its long term trend line 200 day moving average support at 26200 on Friday, more market down turn is likely if this level is broken and the next level of support is 25000. Further support supports are Fibonacci levels at 23667, 22361 and 18132 as seen in the weekly chart. Technically, after trending down for 3 weeks, the US stock market is oversold and is looking for good news to bounce. Good news is hard to find now, but dip buyers can't stand not to buy,  and the market may bounce on Monday.  However, US stock market trend is down, strategy is sell on rallies or when Dow 26200 is broken.

Following are Friday's analyst actions for major tech stocks:

Amazon (AMZN 3036.15) 

Monness Crespi & Hardt reiterated Buy, raise price target from 3750 to 4000.

Credit Suisse reiterated outperform, price target 3750.

Apple (AAPL 108.86)

Raymond James raises price target from 120 to 140.

D.A davidson raises price target from 120 to 132.

FaceBook (FB 263.11)

Monness Crespi &Hardt raises price target from 290 to 350.

Alphabet (GOOG 1621.01)

KeyBanc mai tains Overweight, price target 1970.

Morgan Stanley maintain Overwight, price target 1880.

Twitter (TWTR 41.36)

Pivotal Reseach reiterated Buy, price target raised from 59.75 to 64.

华尔街分析师对科技股过于乐观。上周五是科技大跌的一日，其中一些人却急于提高大型科技股的价格目标。他们忽略了市场正处于严重的下跌趋势，加剧的Covid-19大流行以及选举前后的不确定性。COVID-19的不确定性正在导致企业取消对下季度业绩的预测。这些公司包括3M（MMM），Caterpillar（CAT）和Apple（AAPL），而FaceBook（FB）则警告将来存在“重大不确定性”。是什么让这些分析师对未来如此确定而对科技股如此的乐观的？

即使在最近大幅下跌之后，这些大型科技公司（AMZN 72，AAPL 29.71，FB 27.42，GOOG 27.77，MSFT 27.96，NVDA 46.99，TSLA 115.27，TWTR 68.81）的前瞻PE比率仍然超出了预期的标准普尔500前瞻PE 24.19（这已经很高，因为在整个历史中正常的PE约为15-17）。经过7个月的扩展，这可能是停止PE扩展并开始恢复正常的时候了。即使在最近的大幅回调之后，上述股票今年仍然上涨了很多，AAPL + 48.29％，AMZN + 64.31％，FB + 28.19％，GOOG + 21.24％，MSFT + 28.39％，NVDA + 113.07％， TSLA + 363.80％和TWTR + 29.05％。

另外，OSTK，FSLY，WDAY和DOCU等许多云和家居股票分别从最高点下跌了56％，54％，39％和30％。这些股票今年仍然分别上升了696％，216％，28％和173％。这些公司甚至还没有赚钱。他们的价格已经预期了很多好消息。对于喜欢追逐这些股票的人，当它们下跌时要做好大笔损失的准备。

科技股的高估值可能迫使投资者从成长型股票分散到价值型股票而导致科技股下跌。

现在，许多欧洲国家已处于封锁状态，而周五美国则记录了99321病毒感染，科学家警告最新的热潮才刚刚开始。病毒专家预计在未来几周内感染和死亡人数将大大增加，因为他们预计欧洲般的的疫情发展将在3周后在美国发生。经济将再次下滑。尽管民意调查显示拜登在选举中领先特朗普，但普遍的共识是票数会很接近，谁真正当选要一段时间才能确定。这种不确定性将造成社会混乱。

道琼斯指数周五试图维持在其长期趋势线200日移动均线支撑位26200水平之上，如果跌穿该水平，市场将进一步下跌，下一支撑位为25000。再下面的支撑位是斐波那契水平23667 ，22361和18132， 这些都在周线图上可以看到。从技术上讲，在下跌了3周后，美国股市已达超卖，并且正在寻找好消息反弹。以现在情况看来，有好消息的机会不大， 但逢低买入者仍会忍不住进场，所以周一有可能会反弹。不过，美股趋势看跌，策略是反弹或跌穿道指26200时卖出。

以下是周五分析师对主要技术股的行动：

亚马逊（AMZN 3036.15）

Monness Crespi＆Hardt重申买入评级，将目标价从3750上调至4000。

瑞士信贷重申优于大市的评级，目标价为3750。

苹果（AAPL 108.86）

雷蒙德·詹姆斯（Raymond James）将目标价格从120提高至140。

戴维森 （D.A davidson ）将目标价从120提高至132。

脸书（FB 263.11）

Monness Crespi＆Hardt将目标价格从290提高至350。

Alphabet（GOOG 1621.01）

KeyBanc维持加重评级，1970价格目标。

摩根士丹利维持加重评级，价目标价为1880。

推特（TWTR 41.36）

Pivotal Reseach重申买入评级，目标价从59.75上调至64。

Covid-19 Concern Over Shadow Good Big Tech Earnings 大科技公司靓丽的财报难敌对Covid-19的担忧

Big tech companies Apple, Amazon, Twitter, Facebook and Alphabet all reported better than expected earnings and revenues, but all are trading down in after hour trading except Alphabet. The main problem is worsening Covid-19 pandemic makes future unpredictable. This concern is expressed by Apple and Facebook.  Tech valuations have ran ahead of fundamental is also the reason for sell on news. Stock index futures are down across the board by 1% on average. It looks like a tough beginning for tomorrow's trading. 

Apple (AAPL) is down 5.39% in after hour trading

AAPL Plunges After iPhone Sales Miss, China Revenues Plummet, Lack Of Forecast. ---ZeroHedge

Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.73 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $64.69B (+1.0% Y/Y) beats by $1.36B.---Seeking Alpha

Amazon (AMZN) is down 1.77% in after hour trading.

AMZN Slides Despite Crushing Expectations, Guiding Sharply Higher On AWS Growth, Margin Concerns. ---ZeroHedge

Q3 GAAP EPS of $12.37 beats by $4.98. Revenue of $96.1B (+37.3% Y/Y) beats by $3.54B. ---Seeking Alpha

Twitter (TWTR) is down 17.06%   in after hour trading.

TWTR Tumbles After Massive User-Growth Miss---ZeroHedge

Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.19 beats by $0.14; GAAP EPS of $0.04 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $936M (+13.6% Y/Y) beats by $159.96M. Monetizable daily active users ((mDAU )) of 187M (+29% Y/Y) vs. consensus of 195.1M. ---Seeking Alpha

Facebook (FB) is down 0.79% in after hour trading

FB Pump'n'Dump Despite Crushing Earnings, Warns Of "Significant Uncertainty". ---ZeroHedge

Facebook (NASDAQ:FB): Q3 GAAP EPS of $2.71 beats by $0.80. Revenue of $21.47B (+21.6% Y/Y) beats by $1.67B. DAU of 1.82B vs. consensus of 1.79B; MAU ​​of 2.74B vs. consensus of 2.70B. ---Seeking Alpha

Alphabet(GOOG) is up 6.97% in after hour trading.

Q3 GAAP EPS of $16.40 beats by $5.19. Revenue of $46.17B (+14.0% Y/Y) beats by $3.33B. TAC of $8.16B vs. $7.66B consensus, operating margin of 24.0% vs. 19.8% consensus and Capex of $5.40 B vs. $5.49B consensus. ---Seeking Alpha

大型科技公司苹果，亚马逊，Twitter，Facebook和Alphabet均报出报比预期更好的收益和营业额，但除Alphabet外，它们都在盘后交易中下跌。 主要问题是Covid-19大流行病恶化使未来无法预测。 苹果和Facebook对此表示了担忧。 科技股的估值超出了基本面，这也是新闻出来后被抛售的原因。后市 股指期货平均下跌1％。 对于明天的市场来说将是不利的开始。

苹果（AAPL）在盘后交易中下跌5.39%。

iPhone销售小于预期，中国收入暴跌，缺乏前景预测，AAPL急跌。 ---ZeroHedge

第四季度GAAP每股收益为0.73美元，比预期高0.03美元。收入$ 64.69B（同比增长1.0％）好于预期$ 1.36B .--- Seeking Alpha 

盘后交易中，亚马逊（AMZN）下跌1.77%。

尽管财报大幅好于预期，AWS增长前景指引也大幅提高，但对和利润率的关注导致亚马逊下滑。 ---ZeroHedge

第三季度GAAP每股收益为12.37美元，高于4.98美元。 $ 96.1B（同比增长37.3％）的收入超过$ 3.54B。 ---Seeking Alpha

Twitter（TWTR）在盘后交易中下跌17.06%。

用户增长大幅低于预期，Twitter大跌--- ZeroHedge

第三季度非GAAP每股收益为0.19美元，比上一季度增长0.14美元； GAAP每股收益为0.04美元，比每股0.13美元高。收入为9.36亿美元（同比增长13.6％），较上年同期增长了1.596亿美元。可获利的每日活跃用户（（mDAU））为1.87亿（同比增长29％），而市场共识为1.951亿。 ---Seeking Alpha

Facebook（FB）盘后交易下跌 0.79%。

尽管收益大幅高出预期，但警告前景“重大不确定性” ，Facebook先升后跌。 ---ZeroHedge

第三季度GAAP每股收益为2.71美元，比去年同期的0.80美元有所增长。 $ 21.47B（+ 21.6％Y / Y）的收入超过$ 1.67B。 DAU为1.82B，而共识为1.79B； MAU为2.74B，而共识值为2.70B。 ---Seeking Alpha

 Alphabet（GOOG）盘后交易上涨6.97%。

第三季度GAAP每股收益为16.40美元，比预期高5.19美元。 收入$ 46.17B（同比增长14.0％）高出预期$ 3.33B。 TAC为$ 8.16B对$ 7.66B共识，营业利润率为24.0％对19.8％共识，资本支出为$ 5.40B对$ 5.49B共识。---ZeroHedge

MRNA Is The Bright Spot On Down Market MRNA是下跌市场上的亮点

Moderna, Inc.,(MRNA 72.50) a clinical stage biotechnology company, develops therapeutics and vaccines based on messenger RNA for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, and cardiovascular diseases.

As the market is tanking because of worsening global Covid-19 infections, MRNA may the hope to solve the problem. Its stock may be the bright spot on a downtrending market.I am adding MRNA to my diversified portfolio now consists of MRNA,PAA, MRO, CNR, AGQ, FCX, SQ, PINS, SRNE, TGT and NKLA. You may search these symbol in this blog for more details. The following are near term catalysts for MRNA stock price.

。Moderna is prepping for the global launch of its potential coronavirus vaccine, already taking in $1.1 billion in deposits from governments, the company said Thursday. 

。MRNA reported a wider-than-expected loss of 59 cents a share for Q3. But revenue surged 826% to $157.91 million, nearly double analyst forecasts.

。Moderna's mRNA-1273 together with Pfizer and German biotech partner BioNTech's BNT162b2 are the only two coronavirus vaccine candidates that have a reasonable chance of winning Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by the end of this year. Moderna expects to have enough data to submit for EUA by Nov. 25, 2020.

。Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said in the company's third-quarter conference call on Tuesday that an interim efficacy analysis for a late-stage study of BNT162b2 still hasn't been performed by the study's independent data monitoring committee.  Bad news for PFE is good news for MRNA. This may push MRNA up as the first to announce vaccine approval.

Pipelines：

In addition to developing vaccines for influenza and COVID-19, Moderna has a broad pipeline of candidates. With a platform that essentially rewrites genetic instructions, the applications are almost limitless. The pipeline contains treatments for ailments as varied as heart failure, autoimmune disorders, tumors associated with multiple cancers, and hepatitis. Moderna's vaccine pipeline for treatment of varies ailment are : 1 in phase III, 3 in phase II and 5 in phase 1.

Analysts opinions:

Analysts consensus rating is 2.1 out of 5. Consensus price target is 92.54 while low and high price targets are 42 and 136 respectively.

Technicals: Bullish Cup and Handle bottom in the making. Next two resistances are 81.37 and 92.51. Support is 65.

临床阶段生物技术公司Moderna，Inc.（MRNA 72.50）开发基于信使RNA的疗法和疫苗，用于治疗传染病，免疫肿瘤学，罕见病和心血管疾病。

由于全球Covid-19感染情况恶化导致股市不景气，而MRNA有望解决这个问题。它的股票可能是下降趋势市场上的亮点。我将MRNA添加到我的多元化投资组合中，现在包括MRNA，PAA，MRO，CNR，AGQ，FCX，SQ，PINS，SRNE，TGT和NKLA。 您可以在此博客中搜索这些符号以获取更多详细信息。以下是MRNA股票价格的近期催化剂。

。该公司周四表示，Moderna正准备在全球范围内推出其潜在的冠状病毒疫苗，该疫苗已从各国政府手中吸收了11亿美元的订金。

。MRNA报告第三季度每股亏损59美分，超出了亏损预期。但营收增长了826％，至1.5991亿美元，几乎是分析师预期的两倍。

。Moderna的mRNA-1273与辉瑞公司以及德国生物技术合作伙伴BioNTech的BNT162b2一起，是仅有的两种冠状病毒疫苗候选药物有望在今年年底前获得食品药品管理局（FDA）的紧急使用授权（EUA）。 Moderna预计到2020年11月25日将有足够的数据提交EUA。

。辉瑞公司首席执行官阿尔伯特·布尔拉（Albert Bourla）在周二的公司第三季度电话会议上表示，该研究的独立数据监控委员会尚未对BNT162b2的后期研究进行中期疗效分析。PFE的坏消息对MRNA来说是个好消息。这可能会推动MRNA成为第一个宣布疫苗被通过的公司。

。在研发中的药物产品线：

除了开发用于流感和COVID-19的疫苗外，Moderna还拥有大量候选药物。利用实质上重写遗传指令的平台，应用程序几乎是无限的。该管道包含各种疾病的治疗方法，例如心力衰竭，自身免疫性疾病，与多种癌症相关的肿瘤和肝炎。用于治疗各种疾病的Moderna疫苗产品线的研发阶段有：第三阶段有1种，第二阶段有3种，第一阶段有5种。

。分析师意见：

分析师的共识评级为5分中的2.1为买入评级。共识目标价为92.54，最低和最高目标价分别为42和136。

。技术因素：看涨的杯状底部图形正在造成中。接下来的两个阻力是81.37和92.51。支撑是65.

This Line Is Crucial For The Market 此线对市场至关重要

After dropping about 10% from the recent top at 28957, the Dow Jones Industrial Average found support at the 200 day moving average level 26214 and is bouncing. This is only a oversold bounce and likely be temporary. Negatives for the stock market is still overwhelming: Covid-19 Pandemic worsening, no stimulus plan in sight, election uncertainty, Companies refrain from projecting the future, crude oil collapsed down to near $35 per barrel....This afternoon AAPL, AMZN, FB and  GOOG will report earning. They are expected to beat but sell on news may happen just like after MSFT's report. They may bounce briefly if they beat on earnings but will likely turn back down. So this is a sell on rally kind of market. The 200 DMA is crucial. Dow may slide to 25000 support quickly if the 200 DMA is broken. The 26537 level is also important because if broken the Double Top pattern will be confirmed.

Today's market news from ZeroHedge:

Covid-19 Pandemic summary:

France to re-close Disneyland Paris

Global cases near 45 million

New records in Romania, Poland

Greece announces 1-month lockdown

Belgium hospitalizations hit record as nonessential medical patients delayed

Italy will decide on new measures after another week

UK rate of spread surges as BoJo faces pressure for national lockdown

India tops 8 million cases

Singapore lifts travel restrictions with China

Moderna gets billion-dollar deposit

。Germany and France unveiled their plans to return to the most restrictive'partial lockdown' conditions since the springtime quarantine period ended yesterday, a group of smaller European nations are following suit with Greece introducing a one-month lockdown after two days of record new cases.

。US GDP collapsed by a record 31.4% annualized, moments ago the BEA reported that in Q3 the US economy rebounded by a similarly record high 33.1%, the biggest annualized increase in history. The GDP number beat estimates for a 32% increase. 

。ECB president Christine Lagarde warned that there’s a clear deterioration in the outlook and the recovery in the euro area is “losing momentum more rapidly than expected.” 

。Stocks, bonds and gold down on the same day-only happened three times in market history – on March 11, March 18th and October 28 2020-during the liquidity crisis where nearly all assets where liquidated as risk-parity funds were hammered. This brings us to the risk-parity "matrix of doom", which shows at what drops in both bonds and stocks risk parity portfolios are forced to de-lever aggressively.

道琼斯工业平均指数从近期高点28957元下跌约10％之后，在200日移动平均线水平26214处获得支撑，并且正在反弹。这只是超卖反弹，很可能是暂时的。股市的负面因素仍然不胜枚举：Covid-19大流行病毒恶化，没有经济刺激计划，选举的不确定性，企业不敢预测未来，原油价格暴跌至每桶35美元左右等等。今天下午，AAPL，AMZN， FB和GOOG将发报财报。预计它们将会好于预期，但可能会像MSFT的报告之后那样被抛售。如果他们的收益超过预期，他们可能会有短暂上升，但很可能会再回落。因此，这是逢高卖出的市场。 200 DMA非常关键。如果200 DMA被击穿，道琼斯指数可能会迅速下滑至25000支撑。 26537水平也很重要，因为如果跌穿，将确认双顶形态。

源自ZeroHedge的今日市场新闻：

。Covid-19大流行摘要：

法国重新关闭巴黎迪士尼乐园

全球案件近4500万

罗马尼亚，波兰创新纪录

希腊宣布为期1个月的锁定

比利时住院治疗创纪录非重要患者住院被推迟

意大利将在一周后决定采取新措施

英国首相面临国家封锁的压力，英国感染率激增

印度案件突破800万

新加坡取消对中国的旅行限制

Moderna获得十亿美元的订金

。德国和法国公布了他们的计划，恢复自春季检疫期结束以来最严格的“部分封锁”条件，一些较小的欧洲国家也效仿希腊，在两天的新案件破纪录之后，实行了为期一个月的封锁。

。BEA报告称，美国经济在第三季度反弹了创纪录的33.1％，是历史上最大的年度增长。 GDP增长超过预期的32％。

。欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德（Christine Lagarde）警告说，前景明显恶化，欧元区的复苏“失去动力的速度超过了预期。”

。股票，债券和黄金在同一天下跌，在市场历史上仅发生的三次是在2020年3月11日，3月18日和10月28日-流动性危机期间，几乎所有被风险平价基金卖出的资产都受到了冲击。这将我们带到了风险平价的“厄运矩阵”，它显示了债券和股票下跌时，风险平价投资组合被迫积极地去杠杆化。

Lessons From Previous Elections以前选举的教训

Worsening Covid-19 pandemic with France and Germany both mulling nationwide lockdowns, very weak European stock markets, big companies refrain from projecting future outlooks after earning reports,  U.S. lawmakers failing to strike a deal on fresh fiscal stimulus and election anxiety all contribute to sharp drop in US stock market today. There seems to be a lot more to worry this time then the 2016 and 2000 elections and more market drop looks likely.  Here is today's damages so far 3 1/2 hours into the session (source finviz.com):

Here is a look at what happen to the Nasdaq Composite before and after the elections of 2016 and 2000.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 9 days in a row going into the 2016 election. That's over 5% drop. It then rallied sharply after the election.

The Nasdaq Composite  dropped 34% in a bit over a month after the 2000 election due to contention on who won the presidency. The market then proceed to rally strongly.

Based on 2016's 9 days in a row before election drop and after election drop of 34% on year 2000 election, we need to be very careful before and after this election. For this year's election we have the same pre-election anxiety and the potential contention on who win the presidency, not to mention that we have a worsening Covid-19 pandemic. The Nasdaq will likely continue to fall, the first support level is 10519.

Covid-19疫情的恶化，法国和德国都在考虑在全国范围内实行封锁，欧洲股市非常疲软，大公司在财报告不再预测未来的前景，美国国会未能就新的财政刺激措施达成协议，而选举忧虑都助长了今天的美国股市急剧下跌 。 今年似乎比2016年和2000年的选举还要担心得多，市场继续下跌的可能性大。这是今天到目前为止(开市3 1/2小时之后）的损失（来源finviz.com）：

下面是纳斯达克综合指数在2016年和2000年大选前后的涨跌情况。

纳斯达克综合指数在进入2016年大选前连续9天下跌, 跌幅超过5％。 选举后，它则急剧反弹。

2000年大选后，由于对谁赢得总统宝座的争执，纳斯达克综合指数在一个多月内下降了34％。在决定谁赢后市场才开始强劲反弹。

基于2016年大选前连续9天下降以及2000年大选后大跌34％的情况，我们在这次大选前后都必须非常小心。 对于今年的大选，普遍对大选前的忧虑和潜在的可能选后争执都和2016及2000相同，更不用说Covid-19大流行病毒正在恶化中。纳指继续下跌的机会大，第一个支撑水平是10519