Analyzing S&P 500's Near Term Trend 标普500近期趋势分析

After rising 5 days in a row, the S&P 500 reversed morning gain and closed negative at its low today.

The index turned around at 3181, the opening level of the down gap made on June 11, this level itself is a resistance. A higher resistance would be June high at 3233. Since the index dropped back below the high end of its 3 week trading range at 3151, it is only natural that it would go down towards the low end of the trading range near the 3000 level. However, there are the 50 and 200 day moving averages at around 3017 as the first level of support before the 3000 level support. Assuming the index go down to test the 3000 level, it would be a 4.6% drop from today's close at 3145. If the 3000 level is broken, the next level of support would be the 38% retracement level of the rally from march low (3191) to June high (3233) at 2836. From 3145 to 2835 would be a 9.8% drop. How low the S&P 500 drop to will depend of how bad the COVID-19 and the Q2 corporate earnings be. 

The beginning of the S&P 500 downturn is confirmed by the extreme low level of the index and equity Put/Call ratios. The long tail reversal of big cap tech stocks FB, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT,NFLX,GOOG and NVDA today also further confirmed the beginning of the down turn. The supports for these stocks are their 20 and 50 day moving averages. 

标普500连续五天上涨后，扭转了早间的涨势而变跌，并在接近今天的低点3145收盘。该指数今天在6月11日形成的下行缺口的开始水平3181处反转回落，该水平本身就是阻力。较高的阻力位是6月的高点3233。由于该指数跌至3周交易区间的高点3151以下，因此很自然地会跌向3000左右的交易区间的低位。但是，在3017左右是50和200天移动平均线水平，这是在3000水平支撑之前的第一个支撑水平。假设指数下跌测试3000水平，那么它将比今天的收盘价3145下跌4.6％。如果跌破3000水平，则下一个支撑位将是从三月低点（ 3191）到6月高点（3233）反弹的38％回撤位在2836。从3145到2835为下降9.8％。标普500指数会跌多低取决于COVID-19的发展和第二季度公司的收益状况。

标普500之开始下跌是由指数和股票看跌期权/看涨期权比率在极低水平所证实的。大型科技股FB，AAPL，AMZN，MSFT，NFLX，GOOG和NVDA今天的长尾向下反转也进一步证实了下跌趋势的开始。这些股票的支撑位将是它们的20和50天移动平均线。