Trade Idea Blog: Next TSLA Target Is 1584, But...下一个TSLA目标是1584，但是...

Tesla (TSLA) has been the talk of the street and has been trader's a favorite for traders ever since it broke out of an multi-year trading range at the beginning of 2020. It has since gain 252% in a little over 6 months. Its capitalization as of July 6 closing price has reached $235.53 billions. Its capitalization is now bigger than 2.5X of General Motor, Ford and Fiat Chrysler combine, it also is larger than mega companies such as Intel, Verizon, AT&T, Walt Disney and Bank of America. Unbelievable!

I have created a chart and use Fibonacci Extension to chart it path. After breaking out of a multi-year trading range between 15 and 389, it rapidly crossed the 1.618, 2.618 extension levels at 605 and 979 respectively like hot knife cutting through butter. Today it closed at $1371.58. The next level of resistance/target is $1584, its 4.236 extension which I have to draw off the chart as follow.

The $1584 price is only $212 from today's price, there is no doubt that it could go there , may be in a day or two. However, I believe Tesla stock is a bubble and can burst at any time. So the risk/reward of the stock is not worth chasing. The following are reasons against TSLA;

1. Its valuation is way high: TSLA forward PE at 121 is much higher than those of its peer GM at 6.55, Ford at 14.10 and Toyota at 10.63. TSLA's Price/Sales is 9.05, much higher than those of its peer GM at 0.27, Ford at 0.16 and Toyota at 0.73. TSLA's Price/Book is 27, it is also much higher than GM's 0.92, Ford's 0.83 and Toyota's 0.94.

2. TSLA's main product is Electric Vehicles, and it has a lot of competitors. Its competitors include Mercedes, Audi, BMW, Volvo, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Kia, GM, Toyota, Mazda, NIO, Nissan ...At this time people may think that EV from TSLA is more superior than the others, but in time the others can catch up. TSLA is not the EV monopoly.

3. According to Yahoo Finance, there are 23 analysts follow TSLA. There are 4 strong buys, 4 buys, 8 Holds and 1 Sell. Average rating for the stock is A Hold. Average target price is $706 or 48.5% lower than today's closing price at $1371.58. JP Morgan increase TSLA price target from 275 to only 295 today.

4. After TSLA's euphoric move up, analysts downgrade on the stock are likely to follow very soon. Analysts today downgraded high flyers Shopify (SHOP) ,Spotify (SPOT) , Fastly (FSLY) and Netflix (NFLX). Even Intel (INTC) is downgrade from Buy to Sell.

5. For the last 6 months, TSLA insider ownership has decreased almost 35%, while institution ownership decreased by 5%.

6. We can not ignore COVID-19 is still running rampant in the United States and the world; the disconnect between stock price and the economy; the cold war between US and China and Biden may win the next election. All these are risks which can cause the bubbly stock market and TSLA to burst at any time. JP Morgan's recent note sees unattractive risk reward for stock in second half of 2020 while Citi strategists are recommending to take a more defensive stands for stocks. Besides, when every body think the stock market and stocks can not come down and is afraid of missing out and buy at any cost, the trouble is near.

The US stock market is disconnect from jobless claims:

Source ZeroHedge

The US stock market is still tracking the course of the 1929 crash:

Red line: 1929 trend, Blue line: present US stock trend

Source ZeroHedge

自2020年初突破多年交易区间以来，特斯拉（TSLA）一直是市场上的话题，并一直是炒家的最爱。自那以后，它在6个月多的时间内就上涨了252％。截至7月6日收盘，其市值已达2355.3亿美元。其市值现在已超过通用汽车，福特和菲亚特克莱斯勒的2.5倍，也超过了英特尔，Verizon，AT＆T，迪斯尼和美国银行等大型公司。难以置信！

我创建了一个图表，并使用斐波那契延伸的分析来绘制它的走势。在突破了15到389的多年交易区间之后，它像热刀切过黄油一样迅速突破了分别位于605和979的1.618、2.618延伸水平。今天它收于1371.58美元。下一阻力位/目标价位为1584美元，即其4.236延伸位如下图所示：

1584美元的价格仅比今天的价格高212美元，毫无疑问，它可能会在一两天内到达那里。但是，我相信特斯拉股票是一个泡沫，并且随时可能破裂。因此，股票的风险/回报不值得追逐。以下是不看好TSLA的原因；

1.它的估值过高：TSLA的前瞻市盈率为121，远高于其同业通用汽车的6.55，福特的14.10和丰田的10.63。 TSLA的价格/销售为9.05，远高于其同行的通用汽车（0.27），福特（0.16）和丰田（0.73）。 TSLA的价格/账面价值为27，也远远高于通用汽车的0.92，福特的0.83和丰田的0.94。

2. TSLA的主要产品是电动汽车，并且有很多竞争对手。它的竞争对手包括梅赛德斯，奥迪，宝马，沃尔沃，大众，现代，起亚，通用，丰田，马自达，蔚来，日产...目前人们可能认为TSLA的电动汽车比其他汽车更优越，但随着时间的流逝别人可以赶上。 TSLA不是电动汽车的垄断者。

3.据Yahoo Finance称，有23位分析师跟踪TSLA。有4个强买，4个买，8个持有和1个卖出。股票的平均评级为持有。平均目标价为706美元，比今天的收盘价1371.58美元低48.5％。JP Morgan 调升TSLA目标价只从275到295.

4.在TSLA过分乐观的上涨之后，分析师对该股票的评级下调可能很快就会到来。今天，分析师将攀升得厉害而极受追捧的Shopify（SHOP），Spotify（SPOT）,Fastly（FSLY）和Netflix （NFLX）降级。英特尔（INTC）也被高盛从中立降级到卖出。

5.在过去的6个月中，TSLA内部人士减持股票近35％，而机构则减持5％。

6.我们不能忽视COVID-19在美国和全世界的传播仍然未得到控制；股票价格与经济之间的脱节；美中之间的冷战以及拜登可能会赢得下届选举，所有这些风险都可能导致泡沫性的股票市场和TSLA随时崩溃。摩根大通（JP Morgan）最新的一份报告认为，在2020年下半年股票的风险回报不具吸引力，而花旗策略师建议对股票采取更具防御性的立场。另外，当每个人都认为股市及股票不会跌而害怕错过并不惜一切代价购买时，麻烦就来了。

美国股市与失业救济申请脱节：