change the direction of the stock market. I am listing a few things I look at to derive a conclusion. The conclusion is it is more likely for the big techs to sell off after Thursday.
Symbol from March PE Industry PE P/S Normal P/S miss in 4Q
AAPL +76% 30 9 6 4 1
AMZN +85% 146 50 5 4 3
FB +68% 34 33 9 4 3
GOOG +48% 31 33 6 4 2
To analyze the effect of stock price after earnings, there are 3 areas we are looking at:
1. How much stock has risen before earnings
The above 4 stocks all rose sharply since their March lows. These percentage increases of stock prices
normally take years to accomplish. Since stock prices of these 4 stocks have reflected a lot of good news before earning, it is a reason to sell on earning news.
2. Over valuation
Stock valuations for the above 4 stocks have risen to overvalue levels. The Price to Sales ratio of the 4 companies are now over the normal Price to Sales. PE ratios of 3 of the 4 companies are higher than than their industry PE except GOOG. Over valuation is a reason to sell on earning news.
3. Earning history
No matter how profitable a company is, it has to beat earning estimated by analysts. Based on history of the last 4 quarters of earning report, AMZN and FB missed estimated 3 times, GOOG 2 times and AAPL 1 time. These are not stellar records and means they might miss this time also. Even though AAPL has a better earning record, but recent sell rating from Goldman Sachs and Deutsche bank analyst negative comments make sell off more likely.
4. The earnings can come in 5 forms and possible stock reactions:
Earnings and revenue beat big and positive outlook---Stock moves up big
Earnings and revenue flat to slightly beat and flat to slightly higher out look---Stock sell off
Earnings and revenue beat but negative outlook---Stock sell off
Earnings and miss and positive outlook---Stock sell off due to high valuation
Earnings and revenue miss and negative outlook---Stock drops big
5. Tcchnical analysis:
AAPL: AAPL broke below 20 day moving average at 379. It finished bouncing after recent drop and formed a Continuation Down pattern. Its support is 50 day moving average at 353. AAPL has CCI sell signals.
AMZN: AMZN has formed Double Top pattern and is below its 20 day moving average at 3034. Its next support is 50 day moving average at 2747. AMZN has CCI sell signals.
FB: FB is forming a Round Bottom pattern and has dropped below its 20 and 50 day moving averages at 238 and 233 respectively. Its next supports are at 220 and then 200 day moving average at 204.
FB has CCI sell signals.
GOOG: GOOG has formed Head and Shoulder Top and is below its 20 day moving average at 1509. Its next support level is 50 day moving average at 1458. GOOG has CCI sell signals.
本周四（7/30），苹果（AAPL），亚马逊（AMZN），Facebook（FB）和Alphabet（GOOG）等大型科技公司将在股市收盘后发布财报。这应该是关键事件，并且可能改变股市的方向。下面我列出了一些我的看法以得出结论。 结论是，大型科技公司在星期四之后被抛售的机会大。
代号 自三月涨幅 PE 行业PE P/S 正常P/S 过去四季低于预期次数
AAPL + 76％ 30 9 6 4 1
AMZN + 85％ 146 50 5 4 3
FB + 68％ 34 33 9 4 3
GOOG + 48％ 31 33 6 4 2
要分析财报结果对股价的影响，我关注四个方面：
1.获利前股价增加了多少
自3月低点以来，上述4只股票均已大幅上涨。这些股价上涨百分比通常需要几年才能完成而上升过度。由于这四只股票的价格在财报之前已经反映了很多好消息，因此这是在财报新闻后卖出的理由。
2.估值被高估
以上4只股票的股票估值已升至高估水平。现在这4家公司的价格与销售比率已经超过正常的价格与销售比率。除GOOG之外，这4家公司中有3家的市盈率高于其行业市盈率。在财报新闻后卖出的理由。
3.财报历史记录
无论一家公司的盈利有多好，它都必须超过分析师门的估计。根据最近四个季度的财报记录，AMZN和FB错失了3次，GOOG错失了2次，AAPL错失1次。这些不是出色的记录，这意味着他们这次可能还会错过。 尽管AAPL的财报记录较好，但是高盛的近期卖出评级和德意志银行分析师的负面评论使抛售的可能性更大。
4.财报可以有5种形式出现以及可能的股票反应：
盈利和营业额超大幅超过预期，前景乐观---股票大涨
盈利和营业额基本持平或略高于预期，前景持平或略高---股票因高估值而被抛售
盈利和营业额均好于预期但前景看淡---股票被抛售
盈利和营业额均低于预期，但前景乐观---股票因高估值而被抛售
盈利和营业额均低于预期和负面展望---股票大跌
5.技术分析：
AAPL：AAPL跌破20日移动均线379。近期下跌后并反弹结束而形成下跌继续形态。 它的下一支撑是50日均线353。AAPL 有CCI卖出信号。
AMZN：AMZN已形成双顶形态，并跌破其20天移动均线3034。下一个支撑位是50天移动均线2747。AMZN有CCI卖出信号。
FB：FB正在形成圆顶形态，并分别跌穿20日和50日移动均线238和233。下面的支撑是220 然后是200天均线水平204. FB有CCI卖出信号。
GOOG：GOOG已形成头肩顶形态，并低于其20天移动均线1509。下一个支撑位是50天移动均线1458。GOOG有CCI卖出信号。
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