TSLA was up around 16% and made new high earlier today before closing down 2% to 1497.06, an 18% turn around. It's chart has formed a bearish intraday reversal pattern with near 3% above average volume which means momentum is now to the downside. Since March low of 350 to today's high at 1795, TSLA has risen 413%. This is too much too fast and is ripe for a downside correction.
Fibonacci retracement levels are served as supports. A shallow correction may take TSLA to 1243 which is a 38% retracement of the up move from march low to today's high. A weaker TSLA may correct down to 50% retracement level at 1073. A more severe correction would be down to 902, a 61.8% retracement. The 902 support is strong as TSLA traded the most volume around that price. While the 1243 and 1073 supports are relatively weaker since very little volume were traded at those levels. Since the 902 level is close to 50 day moving average at 961 and 50 day moving average usually is a very good support level. So it make sense the 902 to 961 area may be the range that TSLA may correct down to.
Besides technicals mentioned above, other negatives for TSLA are:
1. Valuation is too high: TSLA now has a $250 Billion market capitalization and market capitalization of the world's biggest auto maker Toyota has only a $204 Billion. TSLA sold 367,500 vehicles in 2019 while Toyota sold over 10 million cars. While TSLA has a forward PE of 130 which is much higher than Toyota's 14. How does that make sense.
2. There are 30 analysts follow TSLA.The highest analyst price target for TSLA is 1500 and lowest is 275 and the consensus price target is 766 which is 49% below today's close of 1497.06. Analysts consensus rating is Hold.
3. Lots of competitions: There are 200 auto brand making 700 different electrical vehicles in the world which Tesla competes against. Even though Tesla EVs may be better than others now, but very sure there will be a few strong competitors out there in the future.
4. A lot of the price appreciation of Tesla stock are base on hype and cult type following and support. Many Tesla stock chasing investors may not even know what Tesla is about, they only know TSLA keep on rising and believe for sure they will make money in the stock. This kind of support can easily evaporate as investors come to understand Tesla more. Tesla is basically one of the EV maker out of 200 other firms. Morgan Stanley analyst believe why TSLA goes up is on hope. The power of hope is driving the stock up. What kind of hope? I need somebody to tell me.
买入高潮导致股票的高潮顶。长期的上升趋势结束前必有疯狂的购买潮出现而造成高潮顶。高潮顶具有明显的向下反转图形，并且交易量高于平均水平。 TSLA满足所有这些条件。
TSLA 在今天早些时大升约16％，并候创出历史新高，随后收跌2％至1497.06，回落18％。它的图表已经形成了看跌的当日盘中反转形态，交投量比平均交易量高出近3％，这意味着动力为下行。自三月低点350到今天的高点1795，TSLA上涨了413％。这是生得太多太快了，下行修正时机已经成熟。
我们可用斐波那契回撤水平作支撑。较浅的修正可能会使TSLA跌至1243，这是从三月低点到今天高点的上升幅度的38％回调。较弱的修正TSLA可能向下修正至50％的回撤水平1073。更严重的修正可能会降至902，即61.8％的回撤。由于TSLA在该价格附近交易量最大，因此902支撑会很强。1243和1073支撑位相对较弱，因为在这些水平上的交易量很小。 另外，902水平接近的50天移动平均线961。50日均线通常是个好支撑，因此902至961区域可能是TSLA向下修正的范围。
除了上述的技术面外，TSLA的其他负面因素包括：
1.估值太高：TSLA现在的市值为2500亿美元，而全球最大的汽车制造商Toyota的市值仅为2040亿美元。 TSLA在2019年售出367,500辆电动车，而丰田则售出超过1000万辆汽车。 TSLA的前瞻PE是130，比丰田的14高得多。
2. TSLA被30位分析师关注。TSLA的最高分析师目标价为1500，最低为275，共识目标价为766，比今天的1497.06收盘价低49％。分析师共识评级为持有。
3.竞争多：世界上有200个汽车品牌生产700种不同的电动车，特斯拉要与它们竞争。尽管特斯拉电动汽车现在可能比其他电动汽车更好，但可以肯定的是，将来会有一些强大的竞争对手。
4.特斯拉股票的许多价格上涨都是基于炒作和邪教类型的追随与支持。许多追逐特斯拉股票的投资者可能都不知道特斯拉到底是什么回事，他们只知道TSLA持续上涨，并确信他们会从该股票中获利。随着投资者逐渐了解特斯拉，这种支持很容易消失。特斯拉基本上是其他200家公司中的EV制造商之一。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）分析师认为TSLA上涨是基于希望，而希望的力量推动股票上涨。什么样的希望？我需要有人告诉我。
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