1. There is no doubt that the main trigger for the market's big run up since March low is due to the Federal Reserve providing liquidity. But the two factors that drive frantic buying are there is no alternative (TINA) and fear of missing out (FOMO). Investors are getting so euphoric and causing disconnects from weak economy, company fundamentals and valuations. Stock prices are so stretched and is ripe for a turn down.
2. High stock prices are disconnecting from weak economy due to the negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic and the situation in the United States is still out of control with infected cases reaching 3,536,277. The 5th largest economy in the world California rolled back re-opening three days ago. Many states are either pausing or rolling back their re-opening. These will likely drag on the economy again.
3. Q2 earnings report season starts this week. Goldman Sachs Chief Equity Strategist David Kostin warns that earnings reality about to be review will be uglier than even the pessimists expect. Kostin is predicting earnings will fall by 60% in Q2, the worst since the financial crisis. Analysts consensus Q2 earnings estimate is down 44%. The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in US, corporate management will likely be cautious in future guidance.
3. US and China Relations are in free fall. Lines are being drawn as the two superpowers clash over technology, territory and clout, a new geopolitical era is dawning. New York Times wrote:" In a matter of weeks, the Trump administration has imposed sanctions over punitive policies in Hong Kong and China’s western region of Xinjiang. It took new measures to suffocate Chinese innovation by cutting it off from American technology and pushing allies to look elsewhere. Then, on Monday, it tore up China’s claims in the South China Sea, setting the stage for sharper confrontation. " The Trump administration also plans to abandon a 2013 agreement between the US and Chinese auditing authorities, a move that suggests a widespread crackdown on US-Listed Chinese firms sidestepping US disclosure rules is ahead. US also has announced sanctioning Huawei personals. Simmering Sino-US tensions could derail the rally in global stocks as the US appears to kick financial decoupling with China into overdrive ahead of elections.
4. 74% of BofA survey respondents said they thought "long tech stocks" is the most crowded trade on Wall Street. The non-stop surge of the tech rich Nasdaq Composite finally ended. As big downside reversal two days ago and follow through big drop today signal downside correction begins. What goes up must come down. Since big cap tech stocks such as FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, MSFT ,GOOG, NVDA and TSLA have been leading the Nasdaq up, they may start to lead the market down.
5. According to ZeroHedge report: UBS' head of global family offices told Reuters, the surge in equities from March to May netted significant returns for its wealthiest clients. Now they're disposing of equities by locking in gains and moving money into "illiquid and private assets." UBS is known as "fortress bank for billionaires," because it caters to the world's wealthiest folks. The bank's survey of family offices, 121 in total, each has an average AUM of $1.6 billion.
6. The latest 2020 presidential election poll says 53% support for Biden Vs 43% for Trump. Biden has promised to raise corporate taxes, this is a big negative for the stock market.
7. Technicals: Nasdaq Composite support: 9742 resistance: 10825, S&P 500 support: 3060 resistance: 3233
自从今年3月的低点以来，美国股市一直飞涨。从3月的低点到7月13日的高点，纳斯达克指数，标准普尔500指数和道琼斯指数分别上涨了63.2％，47.6％和43.3％。在过去的40年中，我还没有见过在这么短的时间内有这种百分比的增长。三天前，所有主要市场指数均高开并大幅反转，并接近当日低点作收。今天科技股被抛售，这可能是自3月以来股市激增的终结。下面是对股市不利的一些负面因素：
1.毫无疑问，市场自三月低点以来大涨的主要诱因是美联储提供流动性。但是，导致疯狂购买的两个因素是没有其他选择（TINA）和担心错过机会（FOMO）。现在股票价格与疲软的经济脱节。投资者变得过度乐观而忽略了公司的基本面和估值。股票价格如此之高，现在下跌时机已经成熟。
2.美国的COVID-19疫情仍然失控，受感染的病例达到3,536,277。三天前全球第五大经济体加州宣布反转开放。很多其他州也停止开放或反转开放。这势必会再度拖累经济。
3.第二季度收益报告季节将从本周开始。高盛（Goldman Sachs）首席股票策略师戴维·科斯汀（David Kostin）警告说，即将受到审查的盈余现实将比悲观者所预期的还要丑陋。 Kostin预测第二季度收益将下降60％，这是自金融危机以来最糟糕的时期。分析师普遍预期第二季度收益会下降44％。由于美国COVID-19新增案件的再度攀升，公司管理层在对未来的指引中可能会持谨慎态度。
3.中美关系处于自由落体状态。随着两个超级大国在技术，领土和影响力方面发生冲突，界限正在划定，一个新的地缘政治时代即将来临。 《纽约时报》写道：“在短短几周内，特朗普政府对香港和中国西部地区的新疆的惩罚性政策实施了制裁。它采取了新措施，通过切断美国的技术并敦促盟友向中国以外寻求发展，以扼杀中国的创新。然后在星期一，美国撕毁了中国在南中国海的主张，为进一步的对抗打下了基础。“特朗普政府还计划放弃美国和中国审计当局之间的2013年协议，此举即将对在美国上市的中国公司避开美国的披露规则采取全面的镇压措施。美国还宣布制裁华为人士。紧张局势缓和可能会拖累全球股市，美国似乎要在选举前将与中国的金融脱钩带入了超速行列。
4. 74％的美国银行调查受访者表示，他们认为“买入科技股”是华尔街上最拥挤的交易。科 技股指数纳斯达克综合指数的不间断上涨终于结束了。 由于两天前的大幅下行逆转以及今天的大幅下跌，标志着下行修正开始。 有升必有降， 由于诸如FB，AAPL，AMZN，NFLX，MSFT，GOOG，NVDA和TSLA之类的大型科技股一直引领纳斯达克上涨，它们可能会导致市场下跌。
5. 根据ZeroHedge的报告：瑞银（UBS）全球家族办公室负责人告诉路透社（Reuters），3月至5月股市飙升为其最富有的客户带来了可观的回报。 现在，他们通过锁定收益并将资金转移到“非流动性和私人资产”来处置股票。 瑞银被称为“亿万富翁堡垒银行”，因为它迎合了世界上最富有的人。 该银行对家族办公室的调查共有121个，每个家族的平均资产管理规模为16亿美元。
6.最新的2020年总统大选民意测验显示，拜登的支持率为53％，而特朗普则只为43％。拜登已承诺若果当选将会提高企业税，这对股票市场将是一个很大的负面影响。
7. 7.技术参数：纳斯达克综合支撑：9742阻力：10825, 标普500支撑位：3060阻力位：3233
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