Trade Idea Blog: Tech Wreck Today科技股今天遭重创

The Tech concentrated Nasdaq Composite Index hit a snag today after continuous rise since March bottom and have been making all time highs since 5 weeks ago. Stocks such as AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, FB, GOOG, NFLX and NVDA have pushed their valuations to stretched levels. Stocks tend to go the opposite direction when they are stretched and it happened today. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.31%, 1.21% and 2.29% respectively6. As investors chase stock hard since March bottom and as the crowd believe that stocks will never come down, that's when the party ends. A market downside correction is now likely as investors getting use to sell on earning news during the next few weeks. Nasdaq may go down to test 50 Day Moving Average support at 9903. If broken, then proceed to 200 Day Moving Average support at 8927.

There are a convolution of factors which caused today's Tech stock sell off, they are:

1. Goldman Sachs analyst said Apple stock should be avoided and rated AAPL Sell with price target at 399. Also, multiple states are investigating Apple for deceiving customers. AAPL closed down 4.55% to 371.38. AAPL chart plunged below its 20 day moving average, short term trend is down.

2. Microsoft reported better than expected earnings and revenues but provided fiscal Q1 guidance with the Productivity and Business Processes segments below consensus, following the FQ4 segment miss. yesterday. Oppenheimer downgraded stock from Outperform to Perform. MSFT closed down 4.35% to 202.54. MSFT chart has formed a bearish Double Top pattern.

3. Tesla reported better than expected earnings and revenues yesterday but sell on earning news drove TSLA closed down 4.98% to 1513.07. Newstreet downgrade TSLA from Buy to Neutral. TSLA's biggest bear Gordon Johnson accused Tesla engaged in accounting games to make their earnings. Johnson reiterates Tesla valuation is detached from reality and warns the company will "hemorrhage cash" in the 2nd half. His maintain his target on TSLA at 87. TSLA chart has formed a Bearish Engulfing pattern.

4. Alphabet stock is down today as EU demand major concessions on health data from Alphabet over Fibit deal. GOOG closed down 3.37% to 1515.68.

5. Amazon (AMZN) has been down 3 days in a row and formed a bearish Double Top pattern. AMZN closed down 3.66% to 2985.

6. INTC reported better than expected earnings and revenues and Q3 guidance is better than expected today. However, Gross Margin came in low than expected and the 7 nm chip is delay for 6 months.

In after hour trading, INTC is down 9.39% to 54.73. If INTC goes down tomorrow, a bearish Head and Shoulder Top pattern would be formed.

7. The aggregate Price to Free Cash flow for AAPL, AMZN and MSFT is near 2000 high. Will bubble happen again?

Other negatives for the market today are:

1. As US COVID-19 cases come close to 4 millions and news cases top 7000 in a day, situation is still out of control.

2. Initial jobless claims increased to 1.4 million last week from a week before. This means July's conform payroll will likely be down.

3. US ratchets up China tensions by closing Houston consulate and Trump said more consulates may be closed. China is likely to close US consulate in Wuhan on Friday.

自3月份触底以来，纳斯达克综合指数持续上涨，并且自5周前便一直创历史新高，但今天终于遇到障碍。 AAPL，AMZN，MSFT，FB，GOOG，NFLX和NVDA等股票的估值已被伸张过度。当股票估值被伸张过度时，股票往往会朝相反方向发展。下跌今天就发生了，道指，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数分别下跌1.31％，1.21％和2.29％。科技股多的纳斯达克指数下跌最多。自从3月底以来投资者一直追逐股票，并且都到了相信股票永远不会下跌的地部，往往这就是该下跌的时候了。现在股市可能会在在接下来的几周内作下行修正，相信投资者在财报消息发布后获利抛售股票会成为惯性。纳斯达克指数可能会下跌测试9903的50天移动平均线支撑位。如果9903被击穿，则会继续走向8927的200天移动平均线支撑。

导致今天科技股抛售有很多汇集的因素，它们是：

1.高盛（Goldman Sachs）分析师说应该避免买入苹果股票，并将苹果股票AAPL评级定为卖出，一年目标价为399美元。此外，多个州都正在调查苹果有否欺骗客户。 AAPL收盘下跌4.55％至371.38。 AAPL图表显示价位已跌破其20日移动均线，短期趋势下跌。

2. 昨天微软报告的收益和营业额均好于预期，但提供了第一财季指引，生产力和业务流程部门的业绩将会低于预期，这些部门在第四季度已经未能实现增长。奥本海默将MSFT评级从“优于大盘”下调至“大盘表现”。 MSFT收盘下跌4.35％至202.54。 MSFT图表已形成看跌的双顶形态。

3.特斯拉昨天公布了比预期位好的收益和营业额，但由于受消息后获利抛售的推动，TSLA收市下跌4.98％至1513.07。 Newstreet将TSLA从“买入”降级为“中立”。 TSLA的最大熊哥登·约翰逊（Gordon Johnson）指责特斯拉从事会计游戏以达到盈利。约翰逊重申特斯拉的估值与现实脱节的看法，并警告该公司下半年会“大量亏损”。他将TSLA的目标价维持在87。TSLA图表已形成了看跌吞噬形态。