Tech Stock Charts Are Getting Uglier科技股图形越来越难看

The stock market is volatile. After yesterday's strong bounce, the Nasdaq Composite Index is coming right back down today after failed to reach its 50 day moving average level at 13740. Nasdaq is still below its 20,50,100 and 200 day moving averages, its trends are solidly down. $compq's CCI indicator has dropped below -100 is indicative of accelerated down turn is to come. Nasdaq is still on course to go down to test its March low at 12555. 

Today's Nasdaq is dragged down by TSLA after Elon Musk made a takeover offer to TWTR at $54 a share, and this raises speculation that he may need to sell some TSLA stocks to finance the deal. TSLA is down over 3.5%. AAPL is down over 2% as the latest version of the iPhone SE is seeing "lackluster demand," according to TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.  NVDA is down 2.6% even though Credit Suisse analyst John Pitzer said he believes there is upside in the chip industry in the wake of negative investor sentiment so far this year. Other tech stocks that are down more than 2% are: AMD, INTC, AMZN and CRM. As shown in the following tech stock charts, all are below their 20 and 50 day moving averages, their trends are down. 

股市极其波动。 继昨日强劲反弹后，纳斯达克综合指数在未能超越50日均线13740阻力水平后，今日再次回落。纳斯达克仍低于20、50，100和200日均线，趋势看跌。$compq 的 CCI 指标已跌至 -100 以下，显示加速下行趋势即将到来。它仍将向下测试其 3 月份低点 12555。

在埃隆马斯克以每股 54 美元的价格向 TWTR 提出收购后，这引发了他可能需要出售一些 TSLA 股票来为这笔交易融资的猜测，导致 TSLA 下跌超过 3.5%而拖累今天纳斯达克指数的下跌。 TF International Securities 分析师 Ming-Chi Kuo 表示，由于最新版本的 iPhone SE 出现“需求低迷”，苹果股价因而下跌超过 2%。 NVDA 下跌 2.6%，尽管瑞士信贷分析师 John Pitzer 表示，他认为在今年迄今为止投资者情绪低迷之后，芯片行业存在上行空间。 其他跌幅超过 2% 的科技股有：AMD、INTC、AMZN 和 CRM等。以下科技股图表所示，它们均低于 20 日和 50 日移动平均线，趋势向下。

Nasdaq Composite Has Multiple Sell Signals纳斯达克综合指数有多种卖出信号

US March CPI rose 8.5% year-on-year, higher than the 8.4% expected, and the core CPI rose 6.5%, lower than the 6.6% expected. Both indicators were the highest in 40 years. U.S. stocks rose this morning as the core CPI did not rise as much as expectation. The Nasdaq Composite rallied in the morning to fill the high of yesterday's down gap and then retreated sharply and has generated multiple  sell signals. Now the Nasdaq remains below the 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages and is still in a bearish trend. It seems that it is inevitable that March low of 12555 level will be tested. Here are the various sell signals:

1. The price of the Nasdaq is below the 20, 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages, its long, medium and short-term trends are down.

2. The morning rise filled the high of yesterday's down gap and then fell sharply. This is a classic reversal down sell signal.

3. The commodity channel indicator CCI fell below the 0 line and touched the -100 line, it's indicative of weakness.

4. On Balance Volume OBV peaked and is trending down. This is indicative of buying overshadowed by selling.

美国3月份CPI比去年同期上升8.5%高于8.4%的预期，核心CPI上升6.5%低于6.6%的预期。这两种指标均为40年来最高。美股今早因核信CPI没有预期高而上升。纳斯达克综合指数早上上升填补了昨日缺口的高位后随即大幅回落而发出多种卖出信号。现在纳指仍然低于20，50及200日均线而保持看跌趋势。看来下探3月低位12555已无可避免。下面是各种卖出信号：

1. 纳指价位低于20，50，100及200日均线，长中短期趋势均看跌。

2. 早上上升填补了昨日下跌缺口的高位后随即大幅回落。这是一个经典的反转向下卖出信号。

3. 商品通道指标CCI跌穿0线及碰到-100线， 表现弱势。

4. On Balance Volume OBV 见顶下跌，显示卖盘盖过卖盘。

Today's News Round Up今日新闻总汇

1. “The spread of Covid in China is the most bearish item affecting the market,” said Andy Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates. “If [Covid] spreads throughout China resulting in a significant number of lockdowns, the impact on oil markets could be substantial.” China is the world’s largest oil importer, and the Shanghai area consumes roughly 4% of the country’s crude, according to Lipow. ---CNBC 

2.  Ukraine's president said the country is "ready" for a major Russian offensive in the east of the country, as he accused Moscow of lying to deflect the blame for the war.

Russia has appointed a new general to direct the war after troops failed to take Kyiv, according to US and European officials.

Nine evacuation corridors were agreed for Sunday, as the death toll rose from a Russian missile strike last week on a train station packed with evacuees.

Ukraine's foreign minister said it would be "extremely difficult" to even think about negotiations with Russia following the atrocities committed in the town of Bucha and at the train station. ---CNN 04/11/2022

3. Factors for this morning's market weakness: Technical pressure after the S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average (4494) last Friday, the Russia-Ukraine situation that has no end in sight, the COVID lockdowns in Shanghai that have pressured oil prices ($94.38, -3.83, -3.9%), and a wait-and-see mindset for the week's economic data and earnings reports.---Briefing.com 04/11/2022On 

4. On Tuesday, traders are set to receive the latest Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is expected to show a staggering 8.4% year-over-year increase in prices for the biggest leap since 1982. And this comes as Fed officials have increasingly talked of larger-than-average 50 basis-point interest rate hikes this year to help bring down prices. Last week, the Fed's March meeting minutes also showed the central bank was gearing up to begin rolling off assets from its $9 trillion balance sheet, in a further move removing financial market support and pivoting away from pandemic-era accommodative policies. ---Yahoo 04/11/2022

5. Today's Fed official speeches: All times are Eastern. 9:30 Raphael Bostic, 12:00 John Williams, 12:45 Charles Evans. ---Wall Street Breakfast 04/11/2022

6. ECB is to meet and decide on monetary policy on Thursday. At their last meeting in March, the ECB adopted a more hawkish position than had been expected by confirming a faster reduction in their asset purchases. That's set to see APP purchases fall from €40bn in April to €30bn in May and then €20bn in June, with the possibility of ending purchases altogether in Q3. Since then however, inflation has accelerated by even more than the consensus expected, with the flash CPI estimate for the Euro Area at +7.5% in March, which is the highest since the formation of the single currency, and up from +5.9% in February. In terms of what to look for this time round, Deutsche Bank economists write in their preview that they're not expecting much change to the ECB's message. Instead, they think that when the new staff forecasts are available in June, they'll announce that APP purchases will end in July, ahead of a liftoff in the policy rate in September, so an underlying direction of travel that's becoming clear. ---ZeroHedge 04/11/2022

7. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is in the middle of a “fundamental transformation” and planning a massive military buildup along Russian borders. The Telegraph reported, "Nato is drawing up plans to deploy a permanent full-scale military force on its border in an effort to combat future Russian aggression following the invasion of Ukraine, the alliance's secretary general has revealed." Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said NATO will undergo a major “reset” and plans to put enough troops in states that border Russia to repel an invasion. The alliance currently has 40,000 troops in eastern member states. ---ZeroHedge 04/11/2022

1. “新冠病毒在中国的蔓延是影响市场的最利空因素，”Lipow Oil Associates 总裁 Andy Lipow 表示。 “如果 [Covid] 在中国蔓延并导致大量封锁，对石油市场的影响可能是巨大的。”据 Lipow 称，中国是世界上最大的石油进口国，上海地区消耗了该国大约 4% 的原油。 ---CNBC

2. 乌克兰总统表示，该国“准备好”应对俄罗斯在该国东部发动的大规模进攻，因为他指责莫斯科撒谎以转移对战争的指责。

据美国和欧洲官员称，在军队未能占领基辅后，俄罗斯任命了一名新将军来指挥战争。

由于上周俄罗斯导弹袭击一个挤满了撤离人员的火车站，造成死亡人数上升，因此周日商定了九条疏散走廊。

乌克兰外交部长表示，在布查镇和火车站发生暴行之后，甚至考虑与俄罗斯进行谈判都将是“极其困难的”。 ---CNN 04/11/2022

3. 今早市场疲软的因素：标准普尔500指数上周五收于200日均线（4494）下方后的技术压力，俄罗斯-乌克兰局势看不到尽头，上海的COVID封锁令油价承压价格（94.38 美元，-3.83，-3.9%），以及对本周经济数据和收益报告的观望心态。---Briefing.com 04/11/2022

4. 周二，交易员将收到美国劳工统计局发布的最新消费者物价指数，预计该指数将显示出惊人的 8.4% 的同比涨幅，创下 1982 年以来的最大涨幅。美联储官员越来越多地谈到今年将高于平均水平的 50 个基点加息以帮助压低价格。上周，美联储 3 月份的会议纪要还显示，美联储正准备开始从其 9 万亿美元的资产负债表中缩减资产，以进一步取消金融市场的支持并摆脱大流行时期的宽松政策。 ---雅虎 04/11/2022

5、今日美联储官员讲话：所有时间都是东部时间。 9:30 拉斐尔·博斯蒂克，12:00 约翰·威廉姆斯，12:45 查尔斯·埃文斯。 ---华尔街早餐 04/11/2022

6. 欧洲央行将于周四开会并决定货币政策。在 3 月份的最后一次会议上，欧洲央行通过确认加快减少资产购买，采取了比预期更为强硬的立场。这将使 APP 购买量从 4 月的 400 亿欧元降至 5 月的 300 亿欧元，然后在 6 月降至 200 亿欧元，并有可能在第三季度完全结束购买。然而，自那时以来，通胀加速的速度甚至超过了普遍预期，欧元区 3 月份的 CPI 预估为 +7.5%，这是自单一货币形成以来的最高水平，高于二月s的 +5.9%。就这一次的展望而言，德意志银行经济学家在他们的预览中写道，他们预计欧洲央行的信息不会有太大变化。相反，他们认为当新的劳工预测在 6 月发布时，他们将宣布 APP 购买将在 7 月结束，在 9 月政策利率上调之前，因此潜在的政策方向变得越来越清晰。 ---ZeroHedge 04/11/2022

7. 北大西洋公约组织正处于“根本性转型”之中，并计划在俄罗斯边境进行大规模军事集结。 《每日电讯报》报道称，“北约秘书长透露，北约正在制定计划，在其边境部署一支永久性的全面军事力量，以对抗俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后未来的侵略。”秘书长延斯·斯托尔滕贝格表示，北约将进行重大“重置”，并计划在与俄罗斯接壤的国家部署足够的部队以击退入侵。该联盟目前在东部成员国拥有40,000名士兵。 ---ZeroHedge 04/11/2022

Nasdaq Composite To Test March Low纳斯达克综合指数将测试三月低位

Major U.S. stock indexes were mixed on last Friday‘s trading . The Dow rose, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 all fell. Big tech stocks such as TSLA, NVDA, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, AAPL and QCOM weighed heavily on the Nasdaq. 

High inflation,  sharp rise in interest rates likely, the continuing Russia-Ukraine war and the lock down of Shanghai in China due to the spread of the Covid virus are all negatively impacting the global economy. U.S. short-term Treasury bond rates higher than long-term rates point to a greater chance of the economy entering a recession. There are various signs indicating that the US economy is in an advanced stage. Overvalued stocks don't match earnings, especially among tech growth stocks. U.S. stocks continuing trending down is very likely.

Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were turned back at their 100 and 200-day moving average resistances.  The Nasdaq Composite has dropped below its 20, 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages, its trend is bearish. The Nasdaq is the weakest index and has a good chance of testing its March low of 12555. The Nasdaq Composite fell 22% from its all-time high in March and entered a bear market. Historical data shows that the average bear market decline is 36% from the peak, and the average duration is 9 months. For Nasdaq to fall 36% from all time high, the price level would be 10376. Weakness in Nasdaq Composite will likely pull the other indexes down with it. 

Weekend News：

1. Ukraine’s economic output will likely contract by a staggering 45.1% this year as Russia’s invasion has shuttered businesses, slashed exports and destroyed productive capacity, the World Bank said on Sunday in a new assessment of the war’s economic impacts. The World Bank also forecast Russia's 2022 GDP output to fall 11.2% due to punishing financial sanctions imposed by the United States and its Western allies on Russia's banks, state-owned enterprises and other institutions.The World Bank's Eastern Europe region, comprising Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, is forecast to show a GDP contraction of 30.7% this year, due to shocks from the war and disruption of trade.

2. According to recent online postings, the municipal government issued a notice saying the lockdown will continue until at least May 1. As for what will happen after May 1, the notice said, it will be decided on May 1 whether to open up or continue the lockdown. Many neighborhoods in Shanghai are in a chaotic state. Some people can't get treatment. There is a serious lack of food. Some elderlies died in senior facilities without family members around. Babies are separated from their parents because their COVID-19 test results are different. ---Zero Hedge 04/10/2022

3. CPI is to be reported Wednesday. Consensus economists anticipate headline CPI will again accelerate to show an 8.4% year-over-year increase, surging higher from February's 7.9% rise, according to Bloomberg consensus data. The figure would mark another decades-high rate of inflation, with the index, even excluding volatile food and energy prices, set to climb as much as 6.6%, up from February's 6.4% increase. ---Yahoo 04/10/2022

4. Conversations detailed in the March 15-16 Fed minutes indicated the bank will soon begin to unwind its $9 trillion balance sheet and signaled members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) “would have preferred a 50 basis point increase” in benchmark interest rates last month when the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2018. The minutes also echo recent public remarks from Fed leaders, including commentary on Thursday from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard who said he wanted the central bank to get to between 3% and 3.25% on the Fed funds rate in the second half of this year, implying more aggressive, front-loaded interest rate hikes in the near-term. Fed Governor Lael Brainard also said last week that the FOMC was "prepared to take stronger action, " should inflation readings remain elevated and warrant such moves. ---Yahoo 04/10/2022

5. China’s PPI, a measure of industrial profitability, soared 8.3% in March from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed today. The CPI, a key gauge of inflation, rose 1.5%.  Both PPI and CPI are higher than expected. The Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.75% and 2.43% respectively in early trade.

6. Oil was lower in early Asian trading due to the possibility China's COVID-19 lockdowns will crimp demand. June WTI crude oil futures are 1.3% lower at $97 per barrel, while June Brent crude oil futures were 1.2% lower at $101.53, per barrel. For several weeks, the benchmarks have been at their most volatile since June 2020. The market has been watching developments in China, where authorities have kept Shanghai, a city of 26 million people, locked down under its "zero tolerance" for COVID-19. China is the world's biggest oil importer. --- Fox Business 04/10.2022

上周五美股各大指数涨跌不一。道指上升，标普500，纳斯达克综合指数及罗素2000均下跌。TSLA，NVDA，AMZN，GOOG，MSFT, AAPL及QCOM等科技大股当天买压沉重拖累纳指。

物价高涨，利率将急剧上升，俄乌战争未了及中国上海因Covid病毒传播而封城均负面影响全球经济。美国短期国债利率高于长期利率指向经济进入不景气的机会大。种种迹象显示美国经济正处于晚期阶段。股票估值过高与盈利不匹配，尤其是科技成长股。美股继续走跌探底的机会大。

道琼斯工业平均指数及标普500指数均被阻于100及200日均线。纳斯达克综合指数已失守20,50,100及200日均线，趋势看跌。纳指是最弱的一个指数而将下探三月低位12555的机会大。纳斯达克综合指数今年三月份时从历史高位曾经下跌了22%而进入熊市。历史数据显示，熊市平均跌幅为从高位下跌36%，平均时长为9个月。如果纳指下跌36%，价位水平将是10376。纳斯达克综合指数的弱势也将会拉低其它指数。

周末新闻：

1. 世界银行周日在对战争经济影响的新评估中表示，由于俄罗斯的入侵导致企业关闭、出口锐减和生产能力遭到破坏，乌克兰今年的经济产出可能会收缩 45.1%。世界银行还预测，由于美国及其西方盟国对俄罗斯银行、国有企业和其他机构实施金融制裁，俄罗斯 2022 年 GDP 产出将下降 11.2%。 世界银行预计东欧地区，包括乌克兰、白俄罗斯及摩尔多瓦等由于战争和贸易中断的冲击，今年的国内生产总值将收缩 30.7%。

2、根据近日网上发布的消息，上海市政府发布通知称，封城将至少持续到5月1日。至于5月1日之后的情况，通知说，5月1日再决定是否开放或或继续封锁。上海的许多街区都处于混乱状态。有些人无法得到治疗。食物严重不足。一些老人在没有家人陪伴的老年设施中死亡。婴儿与父母分开，因为他们的 COVID-19 测试结果不同。 --- ZeroHedge 04/10/2022

3. CPI 将于周三公布。根据彭博共识数据，经济学家共识预计整体 CPI 将再次加速，同比增长 8.4%，高于 2 月份的 7.9%。这一数字将标志着另一个十年来的高通胀率，即使不包括波动的食品和能源价格，该指数也将攀升至 6.6%，高于 2 月份的 6.4%。 ---雅虎 04/10/2022

4. 美联储 3 月 15 日至 16 日会议纪要中详述的对话表明，该银行将很快开始缩减其 9 万亿美元的资产负债表，并暗示联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 成员上个月“希望将基准利率提高 50 个基点”,上个月是美联储自 2018 年以来首次加息。会议纪要也呼应了美联储领导人最近的公开言论，包括圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁詹姆斯布拉德上周四发表的评论，他表示希望央行今年下半年将联邦基金利率提高到 3 % 到3.25%之间，这意味着近期加息将更加激进而提前。美联储理事莱尔布雷纳德上周也表示，如果通胀数据保持在高位，联邦公开市场委员会“准备采取更强有力的行动”。 ---雅虎 04/10/2022

5. 中国国家统计局今天公布的数据显示，衡量工业盈利能力的中国 3 月份 PPI 同比飙升 8.3%。 衡量通胀的关键指标 CPI 上涨 1.5%。PPI及CPI 均高于预期。上证指数及香港恒生指数早盘分别下跌1.75%及2.43%。

6. 由于中国的 COVID-19 封锁可能会抑制需求，油价在亚洲早盘交易中走低。 6 月 WTI 原油期货下跌 1.3% 至每桶 97 美元，而 6 月布伦特原油期货下跌 1.2% 至每桶 101.53 美元。 几周以来，这些基准一直处于自 2020 年 6 月以来最不稳定的状态。市场一直在关注中国的事态发展，中国当局已将拥有 2600 万人口的上海封锁在对 COVID-19 的“零容忍”之下 . 中国是世界上最大的石油进口国。 --- Fox Business 04/10/2022

7.俄罗斯总统泽连斯基表示，乌克兰“准备好”应对俄罗斯在该国东部发动的大规模进攻，因为他指责莫斯科撒谎以转移对战争的指责。 “他们摧毁了数百万人的生命，”他说。 由于上周俄罗斯导弹袭击一个挤满了撤离人员的火车站，造成死亡人数上升，因此周日商定了九条疏散走廊。 乌克兰外交部长表示，在布查镇和火车站发生暴行之后，甚至考虑与俄罗斯进行谈判都将是“极其困难的”。 据美国和欧洲官员称，在军队未能占领基辅后，俄罗斯任命了一名新将军来指挥战争。--- CNN 04/10/2022

US Stocks To Continue Testing Bottoms 美股将继续走跌探底

Rising bond yields, new round of sanctions against Russia, Shanghai locks down indefinitely and high valuation of tech stocks all contribute to today's market weakness. More weakness later in the day is likely after the Fed meeting minutes is released. The recent strong bounce of the stock market is definitely over and the market will likely continue to test bottoms.

Recent news:

1. US Treasury yields hit multi year highs: 5 year 2.748%, 10 year 2.629, 30 year 2.67%

2.  A new round of sanctions against Russia are expected to be announced by the US and the EU.

3. Oil price rises as new Russia sanctions out weigh demand worries.

4. Bank of America clients were selling US equities, both stocks and ETFs last week. Hedge funds were leading the way, followed by institutional clients. On the other hand, retail clients were buying stocks.

5. Last Federal Reserve meeting minutes is to be released at 11AM Pacific Time today. Analysts expect minutes will likely show even more hawkish attitude by the Fed members.

6. Shanghai residents feel strain as lock down extend indefinitely. People are confined to their homes and reliant on authorities for supplies.

债券收益率上升、新一轮对俄制裁、上海无限期封城、科技股估值偏高，均是导致今日市场疲软的一些原因。今天晚些时美联储会议纪要公布后，美股继续疲软的机会大。近期股市的强劲反弹肯定已经结束，市场会继续下跌探底。

近期新闻：

1.美国国债收益率创多年新高：5年2.748%、10年2.629、30年2.67%

2.预计今天美欧将宣布对俄罗斯实施新一轮制裁。

3. 对俄罗斯的新制裁盖过需求消退的担忧，油价继续走高。

4. 美国银行的客户上周出售美国股票，包括股票和 ETF。对冲基金领先抛售，机构客户紧随其后。另一方面，散户却在购买股票。

5. 美联储最上次会议纪要将于太平洋时间今天上午 11 点发布。分析师预计，美联储成员的会议记录可能会表现出更加强硬的鹰派态度。

6.上海封城无限期延长，居民感到压力。人们被限制在家中，并依赖当局提供物资。

Recent Market Bounce Is Likely Over.最近的市场反弹可能已经结束

Major market indexes opened higher but has reversed to the downside now. Too much and too fast a bounce from March low is a problem for the market. Technically, the S&P 500 is facing resistance 4600. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite are facing resistances at 100 and 200 DMAs and failed to break out. Mega tech stocks have recovered back to their previous high valuation levels and are not likely sustainable. Fundamentally, the market is facing headwinds from inverting treasury yield curve and the implied coming of recession, high inflation, pending interest rate hike and Fed balance sheet reduction and negative impacts to global economy from the Russia/Ukraine war. 

The recent market bounce is likely finished and is to go back down. Giving time, the US stock market may eventually break below March 2022 lows. Near term supports and resistances for major indexes are as follows:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Support:34362, Resistance: 35010

S&P 500 : Support: 4489, Resistance: 4600

Nasdaq Composite: Support: 13779, Resistance:14572

Recent news:

1. Federal Reserve's governor Lael Brainard who normally favors loose policy and low rate sees balance sheet reduction soon and at a rapid pace. Brainard also is Biden's nominee to be the new Vice-Chair of the Federal Reserve.

2. The European Commission is to propose to EU Nations sweeping new sanctions, including a ban on imports of coal and other products from Russia worth up to 9 Billion Euros ($9.86 Billions) a year.

3. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s appearance before the United Nations Security Council follows Ukrainian claims that at least 300 civilians were tortured and killed in Bucha by Russian troops. Zelenskyy called for a Nuremberg-style tribunal to investigate and prosecute Russian war crimes.

4. Yesterday, Morgan Stanley's top strategist Michael Wilson believes the bear market rally is over and the market are likely to continue trading lower.

5. Deutche Bank is projecting a recession within the next 2 years.

主要市场指数高开，但现在已经逆转下行。从 3 月低点反弹太多太快对市场来说是个问题。技术上，标普 500 正面临 4600 阻力位。道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数均面临 100 和 200 日均线阻力而未能突破。大型科技股已经恢复到之前的高估值水平，升势不太可能可持续。从基本面上说，市场正面临美国国债收益率曲线倒挂和隐含的经济衰退、高通胀、即将加息和美联储缩表以及俄罗斯/乌克兰战争对全球经济的负面影响等不利因素。

最近的市场反弹可能已经结束，并且将回落。如果给予时间，美国股市最终可能会跌破 2022 年 3 月的低点。主要指数近期支撑位和阻力位如下：

道琼斯工业平均指数：支撑：34362，阻力：35010

标准普尔 500 指数：支撑：4489，阻力：4600

纳斯达克综合指数：支撑：13779，阻力：14572

最近的新闻：

1. 通常支持宽松政策和低利率的美联储理事莱尔·布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）说很快就会看到资产负债表缩减而且速度会很快。布雷纳德也是拜登提名的美联储新副主席。

2. 欧盟委员会将向欧盟国家提出全面的新制裁措施，包括禁止每年从俄罗斯进口价值高达 90 亿欧元（98.6 亿美元）的煤炭和其他产品。

3. 乌克兰总统泽连斯基出席联合国安理会会议声称至少有 300 名平民在布哈遭到俄罗斯军队的酷刑和杀害。泽连斯基呼吁建立一个纽伦堡式的法庭来调查和起诉俄罗斯的战争罪行。

4. 昨天，摩根士丹利首席策略师迈克尔威尔逊认为熊市反弹已经结束，市场可能会继续走低。

5.德意志银行预计未来 2 年内将出现经济衰退。

Morning Market Analysis 04-01-2022 04-01-2022早市分析

Morning news:

1. March Nonfarm Payroll came in at 431000 Vs 490000 estimate. Unemployment rate dropped to 3.6% from 3.8%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month to month, same as estimate.

2. 2 year and 10 year Treasury yield curve inverted raising recession fear.

3. Russia/Ukraine talks resume as "huge"battles erupted near Ukraine's capital. France says no change in Russia's aim and doesn't see any significant retreat or a cease fire.

4. JP Morgan removes AAPL and QCOM from its analyst Focus List, sees early sign of reversal of value over growth momentum.

5. Goldman Sachs expects muted Q1 EPS for Q1, says Giga Shanghai plant halt presents an incremental downside risk to 315K delivery estimate.

US stock market traded mix after a less than expected non-farm payroll report. However, the odd of a 0.5% rate hike in May is 74% and odd for a similar hike in June is 59% according to CME Fed Watch; The 2 year and 10 year yield curve inversion raises recession fear;Russia/Ukraine war is not seeing an end;Weakness on AAPL, NVDA, QCOM and INTC are still negative factors pressuring the stock market this morning.  

Technically, the S&P 500 has started a downside reversal 2 day's ago after surging over 11% since March low. The market retreat is not likely to end until a meaningful support is reached. The next meaningful support is S&P 500's 200 DMA level at 4485. More market downside is likely.

早间新闻：

1. 3 月非农就业人数为增加 431000，而估计为 490000。失业率从 3.8% 下降到 3.6%。平均时薪环比增长 0.4%，与预期相同。

2. 2年和10年国债收益率曲线倒挂引发衰退担忧。

3.随着乌克兰首都附近爆发“大规模”战斗，俄罗斯/乌克兰会谈恢复。法国表示俄罗斯的目标没有改变，也没有看到任何重大的撤退或停火。

4. 摩根大通将 AAPL 和 QCOM 从其分析师关注名单中删除，看到从增长到价值投资逆转势头的早期迹象。

5. 高盛预计TSLA 第一季度每股收益将无大惊喜，称 上海巨型工厂的停产对 315K 的交付估计值带来了下行风险。

非农就业报告不及预期后，美国股市交投升跌不一。然而，根据 CME Fed Watch 的数据显示，5 月加息 0.5% 的概率为 74%，6 月类似加息的概率为 59%； 2年期和10年期收益率曲线倒挂引发经济衰退担忧；俄乌战争尚未结束；AAPL, NVDA, QCOM and INTC等科技股的疲软都将是继续打压股市的利空因素。

从技术上讲，标准普尔 500 指数在自 3 月低点飙升超过 11% 后，于 2 天前开始下行反转。在获得有意义的支撑之前，市场回落不太可能结束。下一个有意义的支撑位是标准普尔 500 指数的 200 日均线 4485 点。市场进一步下跌的可能性大。

3/31/2022 Morning Report.3/31/2022 早报

 Major US stock indexes are down for the second day after the S&P500 rallied over 11% since March low. Today's negative news are:

1. NATO's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says Russia is "not withdrawing, but regrouping" and is not negotiating in good faith.

2.Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer sees recession risk is 25-30%. If recession happens, S&P 500 may drop to 3600. With S&P 500 PE at 21, there is limit upside for stocks. H sets year end S&P 500 target at 4700.

3. Morgan Stanley becomes more cautious of IT hardware  due to risk of negative hardware budget revision, lowers DELL and HPQ targets to 60 and 31 respectively.

4.Barclay downgrades AMD to Equal Weight, price target lowers to 115 from 148.

Technical trend for the S&P 500 is up but needs a pull back. Initial downside target is 4544 (100 DMA) then 4484 (200 DMA). Resistance is 4637. Whether the market can continue to rise depends on the size of the pull back. Dropping below 4484 may mean a much larger fall to follow. 

The weaker Nasdaq Composite may pull back down to 13756 (50 DMA) and it's resistance is 100 DMA level 14612.

在标准普尔 500 指数自 3 月低点以来上涨超过 11% 之后，美国主要股指连续第二天下跌。 今天的负面消息有：

1. 北约秘书长延斯·斯托尔滕贝格表示，俄罗斯“不是在撤军，而是在重新集结”，并且没有诚意进行谈判。

2. 高盛策略师彼得奥本海默认为经济衰退风险为 25-30%。 如果经济衰退发生，标准普尔 500 指数可能会跌至 3600 点。现在标准普尔 500 指数的市盈率为 21，股票上涨空间有限。奥本海默 将年终标准普尔 500 指数目标定为 4700 点。

3. 摩根士丹利因硬件预算负修正风险而对 IT 硬件更加谨慎，将 DELL 和 HPQ 目标分别下调至 60 和 31。

4.巴克莱将 AMD 评级下调至等权重，目标价从 148 下调至 115。

标准普尔 500 指数的技术趋势为向上，但需要回调。 最初的下行目标是 4544（100 DMA），然后是 4484（200 DMA）。阻力是4637。 市场能否继续上涨，取决于回调幅度。 跌破 4484 可能意味着更大的跌幅。

较弱的纳斯达克综合指数可能回落至 13756 (50 DMA)，其阻力位为 100 DMA 水平 14612。

US Stocks Rallied Too Much, Downside Reversal Likely 美股上涨过多，可能会出现下行逆转

Russia said there was no breakthrough in talks with Ukraine on Tuesday in Istanbul and rejected the use of Crimea as a condition for talks. Russia continued to bombard the vicinity of Kyiv. Yesterday, the two-year Treasury bond rate was almost higher than the 10-year bond rate, and history shows that this phenomenon is likely to bring about an economic downturn. The recent rebound in US stocks may be related to short covering and the funds buying at the end of the month and the beginning of the month. The S&P 500 has surged 11.3% in the past 12 days, and now the S&P 500 is only about 4% away from its all-time high. The stock market's strong performance is a serious departure from the economic outlook and against the bearishness of the Federal Reserve's accelerated rate hikes. Big tech PEG ratios are back at highs again: TSLA 7.5, NVDA 2.4, AAPL 2, MSFT 1.9. PEG=1 is a reasonable level. The above situations and the overbought of major indexes are likely for the US stock market to reverse back down.

S&P500 supports are 100 DMA 4545, 200 DMA 4482 and 50% retracement of the previous rally 4397. Resistance is 4637.

The Nasdaq Composite supports are 50 DMA 13757 and 20 DMA 13576. Resistance is 200 DMA 14729.

Dow Jones Industrial supports are 100 DMA 35081 and 200 DMA 34989. Resistance is 37737.

俄罗斯表示，周二在伊斯坦布尔与乌克兰的谈判没有取得突破，并拒绝将克里米亚作为谈判的条件。俄罗斯继续轰炸基辅附近。昨天，两年期国债利率几乎高于十年期国债利率，历史表明这种现象很可能带来经济下滑。美股近期的反弹可能与空头回补以及月底和月初的资金买盘有关。标准普尔 500 指数在过去 12 天里飙升了 11.3%，而现在标准普尔 500 指数距离历史高点仅差 4% 左右。股市的强劲表现与经济前景严重背离，与美联储加速加息的利空作对。大型科技公司的 PEG 比率再次回到高位：TSLA 7.5、NVDA 2.4、AAPL 2、MSFT 1.9。 PEG=1 是一个合理的水平。上述情况和主要股指的超买情况，很可能会导致美国股市反转回落。

标普 500指数 支撑位是 100 日均线 4545、200 日均线 4482 和之前反弹幅度的的 50% 回撤位4397 。阻力位是 4637。

纳斯达克综合指数支撑位是 50 DMA 13757 和 20 DMA 13576。阻力位是 200 DMA 14729。

道琼斯工业平均指数支撑位是 100 DMA 35081 和 200 DMA 34989。阻力位是 37737。

Has US Stock Market Bottomed？美股已经见底了吗？

The S&P 500  has regained its 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages, while the Nasdaq and Dow have recovered above their 20 and 50-day moving averages. Major indices are also forming bullishDouble-Bottom patterns at their February lows. Technically, the U.S. stock market has turned from a downtrend to an uptrend in the short and medium term. Big tech stocks were particularly strong. Goldman Sachs and Wedbush analysts are bullish on AAPL iPhone sales. TSLA's mega manufacturing plant in Germany started building cars. NVDA announced a series of new products yesterday, a system of 20 Hopper H100 GPUs connected together is able to handle global Internet traffic. These three stocks will likely support tech stocks uptrend. Separately, the market has no fear of the outlook that the Fed will raise interest rates by a total of 1% in May and July. The Russia-Ukraine war would have two outcomes: a negotiated peace and  Russia take control of Ukraine completely. I think both outcomes will likely be a relief for the stock market. It seems that the market has already largely reacted to the bad situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Dow resistance is 35,000, support 34445. Nasdaq resistance is 14721, support 4484. S&P resistance is 4600, support 4484. Since the stock market has risen 6 days already, today's market pull back is healthy for more upside.  The key for the stock market to continue its upside is for major market indexes to hold their 50 day moving averages. They are Dow 34445, S&P 500 4420 and Nasdaq 13812. If the market correction is limited, the market strategy may need to shift from selling on rallies to buying on dips.

标普500已经向上收复了20，50及200日均线，而纳指及道指则已收复20及50日均线。各大指数也都在它们的2月份低位造成了看涨的双低形态。技术上短中期美股已从跌势转为升势。大型科技股尤为强劲。高盛及Wedbush分析师均看好 AAPL iPhone销量。TSLA在德国的超大型制造厂建成开工。NVDA 昨日宣布一系列新产品，20 个Hopper H100 GPU连起来的系统可掌控全球互联网交通。这三只股票将支撑科技股。另外，市场对联 储在5月及7月份将加息共1%的展望毫无恐惧。俄乌战争会有两个结果：讲和停战及俄国完成控制乌克兰。我觉得两个结果对美股都是利好。现在看来市场对俄乌战争的坏情况已经大部份反应过。目前道指阻力是35000, 支撑34445。纳指阻力是14721，支撑13812。标普阻力是4600，支撑4484。美股最近已连升6天，今天的市场回落是健康的，对准备更多的升势有帮助。股市继续上涨的关键是主要市场指数能守住50日均线。 它们是道琼斯指数 34445、标准普尔 500 指数 4420 和纳斯达克指数 13812。如果市场调整有限，市场策略可能要从逢高卖出转为逢低买入。