A New Thought On The Market 对市场的一个新想法

I am modifying a chart I drew on March 10 and present a new thought on the course of the stock market. On the post titled A Possible S&P 500 Move (https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2019/03/a-possible-s-500-move-500.html), I predicted a possible S&P 500 trend reversal on March 20 because it's a day when full moon coincide with trend line crossing. The market actually dropped that day only to see it rallied on the day after. It turns out that the March 21 rally is a bull trap as the market is dropping big today (March 22). I think it's reasonable to say that the March 20 turning point is on course and the market is likely to continue working it's way down. The next trend reversal day is projected to be April 5, a new moon day. Project downside targets for the S&P 500 are it's 38% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels near 2660 and 2600 respectively. Other bearish factors are as follows:

。Fear on global slow down as US Manufacturing PMI came in less than expected and German PMI sank below 50 to 44.7 which points to economic contraction.

。US 10 year treasury yield is now down to 2.418 while the German 10 Bund yield crash below zero. These are signs of worrying an slow down in economy.

。The yield curve nears full inversion （longer maturity government bond yield lower than shorter maturity government bond yield, it's an early recession indication ). Every duration higher than 1-month other than the 30-year long bond is inverted.

。Fear gauge VIX rallies over 25%, the biggest move since December 24,2018, indicates some serious fear.

。S&P500 drops back below the previous hard to break resistance 2817 level. Now it has again become resistance.

我正在修改我在3月10日绘制的图表，并对股票市场的走势提出了新的想法。在标题为“一个可能的标普500走法 ”（https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2019/03/a-possible-s-500-move-500.html）的帖子中，我预测3月20日标准普尔500指数可能会出现逆转趋势，因为这天是月圆，趋势线交叉与18日周期相吻合的一天。当天市场实际上是下跌了只是它在第二天却上涨。但事实证明，3月21日的反弹是一个看涨陷阱，因为市场今天（3月22日）又大幅下挫。我认为可以合理地说3月20日的转势正在进行中，市场可能会继续下滑。下一个趋势逆转日预计将是4月5日，因为该天势新月日与18日周期相吻合的一天。标准普尔500指数的下行目标估计是分别在2660和2600附近的38％和50％斐波纳契回撤位。其他看空因素如下：

。由于美国制造业采购经理人指数低于预期，德国采购经理人指数跌破至50至44.7，这表明经济收缩，美德经济在放缓。

。美国10年期国债收益率目前跌至2.418，而德国10年期国债收益率则跌破零点。这些都是担心经济放缓的迹象。

。收益率曲线接近完全倒置（较长期的政府债券收益率低于较短期政府债券收益率，这是早期经济衰退的迹象）。 除了30年期债券以外，每个持续时间超过1个月的期限都已倒置。

。恐惧指数VIX反弹超过25％，是自2018年12月24日以来的最大涨幅，表明存在一些严重的恐慌。

。S＆P500回落至前一个难以突破阻力位2817水平，现在再成为阻力。