Additional Bad News For The Stock Market 对股市不利的其他坏消息

。The European Central Bank slashes its 2019 growth forecast for the euro zone to 1.1% from its previous  view of 1.7%."The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook are still tilted to the downside, on account of the persistence of uncertainties related to geopolitical factors, the threat of protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets," ECB President Mario Draghi said in his statement.

。S&P rebounding from the mid-2,300 to 2,800 , in what Goldman dubbed "one of the sharpest rallies in history." Indeed, as shown below, the rolling 67-day price return of the S&P is the 3rd fastest rally this century, perhaps ever.  What we have just experienced was, according to Goldman, "the sharpest rally since the global financial crisis recovery, and sharp valuation re-rating alongside negative earnings revisions".With the S&P now clearly unable to breach 2,800 and stay comfortably above this "quad resistance" level, the rally appears to be over, and as Goldman wrote over the weekend, "there is now a material disconnect between Fed pricing and the S&P 500... as not only are markets pricing no hikes in the next 12 months, but they are pricing a cut in the next 2 years."

。The Shiller P/E ratio is a widely recognized barometer of stock market prices. stretching through history, its mean score is 16.9. Even after last year’s near-bear market, today it rises to 30.7 — 81% above the mean. It is also within an ace of October 1929’s 32.6. Only 1999’s infinitely obscene 44 outpaces it. ---Daily Reckoning

。Total market capitalization of U.S. stocks presently ranges to $40 trillion — or twice GDP. This 2-1 ratio is the highest in history… we might mention. Analyst John Hussman reminds us the ratio previously topped at 1.9 in 2000. That is, never before has Wall Street run so far ahead of Main Street.  ---Daily Reckoning

。The unhappy trend of the US economy will likely continue into Q1 2019. Goldman now projects 0.9% Q1 GDP growth. The Federal Reserve’s New York headquarters has it at 0.88%. And its Atlanta branch now estimates Q1 growth of merely 0.3%. ---Daily Reckoning

。欧洲央行将其2019年欧元区经济增长预期从先前的1.7％下调至1.1％。欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉在声明中表示 “由于地缘政治相关的不确定性持续存在，新兴市场的保护主义威胁和脆弱,这些因素导致欧元区经济增长前景的风险仍然倾向于下行”。---Seeking Alpha

。标准普尔指数从2,300点反弹至2,800点，高盛称之为“历史上最激烈的反弹之一”。 事实上，正如下图所示，标准普尔指数滚动67天的价格回归是本世纪第三快的涨幅，也许永远都是如此。 高盛称，我们刚刚经历的是“自全球金融危机复苏以来最激烈的反弹。这次大幅价值重估是在在负面盈利修正的情况下发生的。 由于标准普尔现在显然无法突破2,800并且保持在这个“四冲阻力”水平之上，反弹似乎已经结束。高盛周末这样写，“现在标准普尔500指数和联储策略预期之间存在重大脱节 ...因为不仅市场正在定价未来12个月内不会加息，而且他们预计未来两年会降息。“ ---Zero Hedge

。Shiller P / E比率是公认的股票价格晴雨表。 历史悠久，平均比率为16.9。 即使在去年接近熊市之后，今天仍然比平均水平高出30.7 -81％。 这养的高水平接近1929年10月的32.6。只有1999年的极度高比率44超过了它。 ---Daily Reckoning

。目前，美国股票的总市值达到40万亿美元，相当于GDP的两倍。 这个2-1比率是历史上最高的。 分析师约翰·赫斯曼（John Hussman）提醒我们，这个比率在2000年时达到了1.9以上。也就是说，股市从未像现在这样远远超过实际的GDP。 ---Daily Reckoning

。美国经济不愉快的趋势可能会持续到2019年第一季度。高盛目前预计第一季度GDP增长为0.9％。 美联储纽约总部的估计为0.88％。 其亚特兰大分部目前估计第一季度增长仅为0.3％。
---Daily Reckoning