。The American Petroleum Institute reportedly shows a build of 7.29M barrels for the week ending March 1, vs. a draw of 4.2M barrels in the previous week and expectation of +1.45M barreles, the build would be largest since January if confirmed by EIA data. Oil Futures is down 0.64%---Seeking Alpha
。One of Theresa May’s top officials told the Cabinet he wasn’t confident the prime minister will get her Brexit deal through Parliament next week. Chief Whip Julian Smith told ministers on Tuesday that the vote, likely to be on March 12, will be tight, according to three people who spoke on condition of anonymity. With Britain due to leave the European Union in 24 days, May is pursuing a three-pronged strategy to try to get members of Parliament to back her deal. But none are going well. If May’s deal is defeated on March 12, it’s likely Parliament will reject a no-deal Brexit the following day and then order May to seek a delay to Brexit on March 14 -- though the EU would have to agree to do so.
。This year’s gap between equity performance and fund flows is now near the widest since the financial crisis, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists. Despite stellar gains across almost all asset classes, the proportion of cash going into safe versus risky securities is about the highest since 2009, they wrote in a recent note. For Citigroup Inc., the lack of conviction is enough to cast doubt on the sustainability of a surge that’s seen the S&P 500 gain almost 19 percent since Christmas. The evident caution “doesn’t bode well for continued equity market strength like we’ve seen,’’ analysts led by Chris Montagu wrote this week. Unlike the early-2018 gains, which were supported by strong inflows, they argue the bulk of this advance was probably spurred by short covering. Barclays clients are in “sell the rally” mode, strategists including Emmanuel Cau wrote last week. ---Bloomberg
。The S&P 500′s price-earnings ratio is suggesting the market is ignoring the economic reality, according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. At a few points below 2,800, the S&P 500 is currently trading more than 16 times the 2019 earnings estimate for the S&P 500 firms of $172.50.“On a valuation basis this market has risen to reflect a macro environment that is materially more positive than the one we currently have, and as a fundamentals-driven analyst, that makes me nervous over the medium term,” Essaye says.---CNBC
。Dow Jones Transportation Indexes diverges with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The transportation index has been trending down while the industrial average has been trending up. The transportation index usually leads the industrial in trends.
尽管股市表现有时不按理而行，这里我还是列举更多要对美国股市持谨慎态度的理由：
。据报道，美国石油协会显示截至3月1日的一周储藏量为增加729万桶，前一周为增加420万桶，预计为增加145万桶，如果得到EIA的证实，该产量增加将是1月以来的最大。原油期货下跌0.64%。 ---Seeking Alpha
。特蕾莎梅的一位高级官员告诉内阁，他不相信总理会在下周通过议会获得英国退欧协议。 据三位不愿透露姓名的人士称，首席党鞭朱利安史密斯周二告诉部长们，可能在3月12日举行的投票将会很紧凑。 随着英国将在24天内离开欧盟，特蕾莎梅正在采取三管齐下的策略，试图让国会议员支持她的协议。 但没有一个进展顺利。 如果特蕾莎梅的协议在3月12日被否决，那么议会很可能会在第二天拒绝一项无交易的脱欧，然后命令特蕾莎梅在3月14日寻求延迟英国退欧 - 尽管欧盟必须也同意这样做。---彭博
。高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的策略师表示，今年股市表现与资金流动之间的差距现已接近金融危机以来的最大幅度。他们在最近的一份报告中写道，尽管几乎所有资产类别的收益都有所增长，但安全与风险证券的现金比例大约是自2009年以来的最高水平。对花旗集团来说，缺乏信念足以让人对标准普尔500指数自圣诞节以来上涨近19％的激增的可持续性产生怀疑。克里斯·蒙塔古（Chris Montagu）领导的分析师本周写道，这种明显的谨慎态度“对我们看到的持续股市强势并不是好兆头”。与强劲的资金流入支撑的2018年初收益不同，他们认为这次上升的大部分可能是由空头回补引发的。包括Emmanuel Cau在内的策略家上周表示，巴克莱的客户正处于“趁高出货”模式。---彭博
。Sevens Report Research创始人汤姆·埃萨耶（Tom Essaye）表示，标准普尔500指数的市盈率表明市场无视经济现实。在低于2,800点几点，标准普尔500指数目前的交易价格是2019年收益的16倍以上对标准普尔500指数公司的估计盈利为172.50美元。Essaye说：“在估值的基础上，这个市场上涨反映了一个宏观环境，比我们现有的宏观环境更为积极，作为一个基本面驱动的分析师，这让我对股市中期感到紧张。“--- CNBC
。道琼斯交通指数与道琼斯工业平均指数表现背离。 运输指数呈下降趋势，而工业平均指数却呈上升趋势。 运输指数通常引领工业趋势。
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