Why The Market Decline Will Continue 为什么市场跌势还会继续

1. US-China agreement may disappoint. Chinese officials were wary about the final terms due to Trump’s bent for last minute-changes.

2. Global economy data are weak:
。US February Nonfarm Payrolls at +20K is much worse than consensus +181K
。China  reported U.S. February dollar-denominated exports fell 20.7 percent, compared to an expected 4.8 percent fall.
。The European Central Bank lowered 2019 European growth rate from 1.9％ to 1.1%.

3. China's Shanghai stock index just started correction by dropping a huge 4.4% last night after rising over 23% since early January.

4. FAANG stocks are weak. FB -0.92%, AMZN -1.21%, AAPL -0.59%, NFLX -2.41%, GOOG -0.76%. Fear Index($VIX) is getting bought indicates institutions are buying market hedge.

5. Major US stock indexes have risen 19%-22% since December low to recent, too much too soon and a correction is natural.

6. S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have dropped below their 200 day moving average support, trends are down.

7. There are still room for the indexes to drop since they have not yet reach support. Supports for major market indexes are : Dow 25127 (200 day moving average) and 24807 (50 day moving average), S&P 500 2673 (50 day moving average, Nasdaq 7183 (50 day moving average) and Russell 2000 1488 （50 day moving averages) . A normal 38% retracement levels are Dow 24490, S&P 500 2637, Nasdaq 7086 and Russell 2000 1474.

1。美中协议可能令人失望。由于特朗普对最后一刻的改变，中国官员对最终条款持谨慎态度。

2。全球经济数据疲软：
。美国2月非农就业人数+ 20K远低于市场预期+ 181K
。中国报告称，美国2月以美元计价的出口下降20.7％，而预计下降4.8％。
欧洲央行将2019年欧洲经济增长率从1.9％下调至1.1％。

3。自1月初以来上涨超过23％后，中国上证指数刚刚开始回调，昨晚大4.4％。

4。FAANG股票疲软。 FB -0.92％，AMZN -1.21％，AAPL -0.59％，NFLX -2.41％，GOOG -0.76％。恐慌指数（$ VIX）被买入表明机构正在购买市场对冲。

5。美国主要股指自去年12月以来的最低点上涨了19％-22％，太快了太多而且下跌修正是很自然的。

6。标准普尔500指数，纳斯达克指数和罗素2000指数均已跌破200日均线支撑位，走势看跌。

7. 各大指数由于尚未到达支撑位，指数仍有下跌的空间。主要市场指数支撑位为：道指25127（200日均线）和24807（50日均线），标准普尔500 2673（50日均线），纳斯达克7183（50日均线）和罗素2000 1488 （50日均线）。正常38％回撤水平为道琼斯24490，标准普尔500 2637，纳斯达克7086和罗素2000 1474。