Coronavirus Leads To Recession And Bear Market? 冠状病毒导致衰退和熊市？

Latest COVID-19 Virus Statistics:

US public health officials on the west coast warned that the recent cases in California and Washington State are evidence that community outbreaks have already begun in Northern California, Oregon and Washington State.

In the world, confirmed COVID-19 confirmed infection cases has now reached 85966 confirmed  and 2941 death. Inside China there are 79251 confirmed and 2835 deaths. Outside China there are 6715 confirmed and 106 deaths. The virus has spread to all continents except Antarctica, 62 countries.The outbreaks were particularly severe in South Korea, Italy and Iran. Besides Asia, the epidemic is most severe in Europe and the Middle East.

Chinese Economy:

China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 35.7, worse than the lowest reached previously during the global financial crisis during 2008-2009 when the PMI was in the range of 38.8 - 45.3, and it is the worst in history since the data has been compiled. The non-manufacturing gauge also fell to its lowest ever, 29.6. Both were well below 50, which denotes contraction. The economic fallout from the deadly coronavirus may cause a 6% contraction in China’s first-quarter gross domestic product, according to Pacific Investment Management Co.

The GDP contraction, which would be at a quarterly annualized rate, would push down year-on-year growth to 3%, compared with 6% expansion last year,  according to Nicola Mai, a portfolio manager and head of sovereign credit research in Europe, and Tiffany Wilding, a U.S. economist.The impact of this will be felt around the globe as China accounts for a quarter of worldwide manufacturing activity, they said.

Global Economy:

The COVID-19 spread is putting the global economy at the greatest risk of recession since the 2008 financial crisis. "With the partial exception of the Black Death in 14th century Europe, every major pandemic has been followed by an economic recession," said Professor Robert Dingwall, researcher at the University of Nottingham Trent in England. "I don't think there is any good reason to think it would be different this time." Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists who said in a report Friday that global GDP will shrink on a quarterly basis in the first two quarters of this year before rebounding in the second half.

Rescue Hopes:

After the Dow shed 3600 points with four 1000 point range day, previously bullish Thomas Lee, founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, acknowledges that something isn’t right with a market that was just enjoying a record close days ago.  He wouldn’t be surprised if the government kicks in surprise plans to help stanch the bleeding in markets. Those might include:

。A health-care action plan
。 An announcement of financial support by the Treasury Department
。Other fiscal stimulus packages
。An emergency interest-rate cut by the Fed

The US Stock Market:

Since February 19, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite tumbled 16.5%, 15.8% and 14.3% respectively from all time highs to February 28 lows. All major market indexes dropped below their 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages and their short, intermediate and long term trends are now all down. An economy recession and a stock market bear market may ensue if the coronavirus spread is not under control soon. It is going to take a long time for investors to rebuilt confidence on the stock market. Even though the extreme fear and hope of rescue plans from the government may cause the market to bounce in the short term, but the bounce may be short lived. The strategy for a down trending market is sell on rallies (when market bounce to resistance).

最新的COVID-19病毒统计：

美国西海岸的公共卫生官员警告说，加州j及华盛顿洲最近的几宗病例显示病毒已经在北加州，俄勒冈州和华盛顿州社区暴发。

全世界已确认的COVID-19确诊感染病例现已达到确诊85966例死亡和2941例。在中国国内，有79251例确诊和2835例死亡。在中国境外有6715例确诊病例和106例死亡病例。该病毒已传播到南极洲以外的所有大洲及62个国家。韩国，意大利及伊朗疫情尤为严重。除了亚洲外，欧洲及中东地区疫情最为严重。

中国经济：

中国2月份的官方制造业PMI为35.7，低于2008-2009年全球金融危机期间的最低水平，当时PMI在38.8-45.3之间，是有史以来最差的数据。非制造业PMI也跌至历史最低点29.6。两者均远低于50，显示收缩。据太平洋投资管理公司（Pacific Investment Management Co.）称，致命性冠状病毒造成的经济影响可能导致中国第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）萎缩6％。

欧洲投资组合经理兼欧洲主权信用研究主管尼古拉·迈伊（Nicola Mai）表示，GDP收缩按季度年率计算，将使同比增长率降至3％，而去年的增长率为6％。他们说，这种影响将在全球范围内感受到，因为中国占全球制造业活动的四分之一。

全球经济：

自2008年金融危机以来，COVID-19的传播使全球经济处于最大的衰退风险中。英格兰诺丁汉特伦特大学研究员罗伯特·丁沃尔（Robert Dingwall）教授说：“除了14世纪欧洲的“黑死病”部分例外外，每一次大流行都伴随着经济衰退。 “我认为没有充分的理由认为这次会有所不同。”高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的经济学家周五在一份报告中表示，全球GDP将在今年前两个季度按季度收缩，然后在下半年反弹。

救援希望：

道琼斯指数在四个交易日内下跌3600点后，之前看涨的Fundstrat Global Advisors创始人托马斯·李（Thomas Lee）承认，在不久前市场才刚刚创纪录看来，有些事情是不妥的。如果政府采取出人意料的计划来帮助遏制市场的流血，他不会感到惊讶。这些可能包括：

。保健行动计划
。财政部宣布提供财政支持
。其他财政刺激方案
。美联储紧急降息

美国股票市场：

自2月19日以来，道指，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数分别从历史高点至2月28日低点分别下跌了16.5％，15.8％和14.3％。所有主要市场指数均跌破20、50、100和200日移动平均线，它们短期，中期和长期趋势现已全部下跌。如果不尽快控制冠状病毒的传播，可能会导致经济衰退以至股市熊市。投资者需要很长时间才能重新建立起对股市的信心。尽管对政府救助计划的希望及极端恐惧可能会导致市场在短期内反弹，但这种反弹极可能是短暂的。下跌趋势的策略是逢高卖出(当市场反弹到阻力价位时）。

Imminent Rate Cut May Help Market Bounce 即将降息会有助于市场反弹

Stock market drop this week is so dramatic and extreme, a short term relief rally is imminent although the market trend is still down. It is an opportunity to capture very short term profits by buying stocks.  Fibonacci levels on the S&P 500 points to possible bounce to levels. Following are some reasons:

1. The Federal Reserve is under tremendous pressure to cut interest rate. The odd for March rate cut is 100%. The odd of 0.5% cut is 57.2% while for 0.25% cut is 42.8%. Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh suggests Fed should cut rate no later than this coming Sunday to avoid further panic. So there is a chance that Fed may cut interest at any time. Major market indexes are now still near their lows, the rate cut situation has not yet reflected in the market.

2. CNN Fear and Greed Indicator is at extreme fear level of 8 (this is the lowest I have ever seen). Extreme fear in the market means the market is ready to bounce.

3. Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all bounced off from their supports at 24700, 2855 and 8260. Dow dropped from 29568 high to today's 8264 low, a 16.5%  in 9 days. S&P 500 dropped from 3393 high to today's 2856 low, a 15.8% in 7 days. And Nasdaq Composite dropped from 9638 high to 8264, a 14.3% in 7 days. The drops are to much too fast.

本周股市下跌是如此的剧烈和极端，尽管市场趋势仍是下跌，但短期反弹即将到来。这是一个非常短期买股票获利润的好机会。下面的标普500指数图列出的斐波那契价位水平是反弹时的阻力水平。以下是一些原因：

1. 美联储正面临着降息的巨大压力。 3月降息的几率是100％。降息0.5％的几率是57.2％，而降息0.25％的几率是42.8％。前美联储行长凯文•沃什（Kevin Warsh）建议美联储在不迟于本周日降息，以避免进一步的恐慌。因此，美联储有可能随时会减息。目前主要市场指数仍处于低位，降息情况尚未在市场上反映出来。

2. CNN恐惧和贪婪指标处于8的极端恐惧水平（这是我见过的最低水平）。市场极度恐惧意味着市场会随时反弹。

3.道琼斯指数，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均已从各自的支撑位24700、2855和8260反弹。道琼斯指数从29568高位回落至今天的8264低点，在9天之内下跌了16.​​5％。标普500从3393点高点跌至今天的2856点低点，在7天内下跌了15.8％。纳斯达克综合指数从9638点跌至8264点，在7天内下跌了14.3％。跌的太快，太多了。

Horrible Sights In Overnight Futures 隔夜期货的恐怖景象

At 11 PM Pacific Time，February 27，all charts are showing vertical waterfall action except VIX chart is skyward vertically. They sure looks extreme and very ripe for reversal. Something good is going to happen near term, may be coordinated central bank interventions?

太平洋时间2月27日晚上11时，所有图表均显示垂直瀑布式下跌，除了VIX图表垂直向上飞天。 他们看起来非常极端，反转时机已经非常成熟。 近期肯定会有什么好事发生，可能是各大中央银行的联合干预？

A Strong Bounce Is Coming 强劲反弹即将来临

The Dow has the largest point drop in history today, down 1190.95 points, -4.42%! S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are down 137.63, -4.42% and 414.29, -4.61% respectively. From all time high to today, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are down 11.51%, 12.22% and 12.93% respectively.
It is a lot for the market to drop so much in only 8 days. Today, 86% of stocks are down, stocks that made now low is 9 times that of new high , 83% stocks are below 50 day moving average, and 69%stocks are below 200 day moving average. I am not saying the market is not going to go lower later with the coronavirus threat, but in the short term it's very oversold and extreme. A strong bounce is in the horizon. Especially when the volatility index VIX is at the highest level in the last 2 years and the CNN Fear and Greed index is at the extreme fear  level of 13 ( the lowest I saw before was 8). These extreme pessimism is like stretching a rubber band to its extreme and release, it will shoot to the other direction quickly.

The S&P 500 is at 2978, below its 200 day moving average 3046. Since it closed at its low today, there may be some more downside coming tomorrow. The next support band is 2872 to 2940. So if it does not bounce right away, it will likely bounce at the support band. So get ready to make a quick buck.  This is for trader who can afford to lose only, Good Luck！

道指今天下跌点数为历史上最大，下跌1190.95点，-4.42％！标普500和纳斯达克综合指数分别下跌137.63，-4.42％和414.29，-4.61％。从历史最高点到今天，道指，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数分别下跌11.51％，12.22％和12.93％。

市场在短短8天内下跌太多了。今天，有86％的股票下跌，创新低的股票是创新高的9倍，有83％的股票低于50天移动平均线，有69％的股票低于200天移动平均线。我并不是说受着冠状病毒的威胁，市场不会再走低。但是从短期来看，市场已是非常超卖和极端而即将出现强劲反弹。尤其是当波动率指数VIX已达到在过去两年中最高，并且CNN恐惧和贪婪指数处于13的极端恐惧水平时（我之前看到的最低水平是8）。这些极端的悲观情绪就像将橡皮筋拉到极限并释放一样，它将会朝另一个方向强劲回弹弹。

标普500指数现报2978，低于其200日移动均线3046。因为今天收于低点，明天可能还会跌些。下一个支撑带是2872至2940。如果市场不立即反弹，则很可能会在支撑带处反弹。因此，准备赚些快钱吧。这是只适合能承受损失的交易者，祝好运！

Market Hit Selling Climax 市场达到抛售高潮

The S&P 500 index has recovered 2/3 of the morning's 112 point down draft. The selling reached climax moment when number of down stocks is 9 times up stocks.  It's a classic tail reversal.  This bounce may last a day or two. Target is the 0.38 retracement level of the total drop from the top. Upside target for the S&P 500 is around 3155.  Support is 200 day moving average 3047 level. This move is technical oriented beware of further coronavirus bad news and be nimble if trade up.

标普 500指数已经恢复了早盘112点跌幅的2/3。当下跌股票对上升股票达到9倍时，卖出达到了高潮而导致反转。 这是经典的长尾反转。 这种反弹可能持续一两天。 目标是从高点下来的整个跌幅的0.38回撤位。 标普500的上行目标为3155。支撑位为200日移动平均线3047水平。 这次反弹是技术性的，谨防进一步的冠状病毒坏消息，如果炒上要非常灵活。

US Stock Indexes Futures Down Sharply 美股指数期货大幅下跌

Major US Stock Index Futures are down about 1.3% in evening trading. Reason is mostly likely COVID-19 virus related. Near California confirmed case, very weak European Stoxx 50 (-2.5%) and German Dax (-2.40%) futures ,weakness in MSFT after trading probably are the other reasons.

Latest COVID-19 related news:

。Microsoft (MSFT) doesn't expect to meet its Q3 guidance for the More Personal Computing segment due to coronavirus-related impact to Windows OEM and Surface. MSFT stock dropped 2% during after hour trading.

。The US has ordered "a lot" of masks to deal with a potential coronavirus outbreak, President Trump said. "We may not need it, you understand that," he told a reporter. "We're looking at worst-case scenario, we're going to be set very quickly. "

。CDC confirned the first U.S. coronavirus case of unknown origin in Northern California. CDC does n’t know exactly how the patient, a California resident, contracted the virus.

。The city of San Francisco declared on Tuesday a state of emergency even if at the moment there are no confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the area. San Diego County and Orange county are doing the same.

。South Korea reports 334 new cases, bringing the total number in the country to 1,595, 12 deaths.

。Latest COVID-19 statistics:
There are 48 countries reported confirmed cases.
In China: 78197 confirmed, 2744 deaths.
Outside China: 3650 confirmed, 57 deaths.


。Outside of China, daily confirmed COVID-19 cases growing exponentially.

。The 3 regions with the most confirmed cases are:

In the European Union, which prides itself on open borders, confirmed cases were recorded in Austria, Croatia, France, Germany, Greece, Spain, Norway, Georgia, Greece and Switzerland. Most were tied to Italy.

。In Middle East，confirmed cases were recorded in Iran，UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman, Israel, Lebanon. Most were tied to Iran.

。In Asia，confirmed cases were recorded in China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Macau, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam. Most were tied to China.

美国主要股指期货在夜间交易中平均下跌约1.3％。 原因很可能与COVID-19病毒有关。加州新增一例，欧洲Stoxx 50（-2.5％）和德国Dax（-2.40％）期货表现的非常疲软及MSFT后市的弱势都有负面影响。

最新的COVID-19相关新闻：


。微软（MSFT）由于Windows OEM和Surface受到冠状病毒相关的影响，预计不会达到对个人计算机领域的第三季度指引。盘后交易中，MSFT股票下跌2％。

。特朗普总统说，美国已订了“大量”口罩来应对潜在的冠状病毒的爆发。他告诉记者说：“你可能知道，我们可能不需要它。” “我们正在为最坏的情况做准，我们将很快采取行动。”

。美国疾病预防控制中心（CDC）确认了北加州首例来源不明的美国冠状病毒病例。 CDC并不确切知道该患者（加利福尼亚州居民）如何感染到病毒。

。旧金山市星期二宣布进入紧急状态，即使目前该地区没有确诊的Covid-19病例。圣地亚哥县和奥兰治县也在做同样的事情。

。韩国报告了334例新病例，使该国总数达到1,595例确诊，死亡12例。

。最新的COVID-19统计信息：
现在有48个国家报告了确诊病例。
在中国：已确认78197人，死亡2744人。
中国境外：已确认3650人，死亡57人。


。在中国以外，每天确认的COVID-19病例呈幂数增长。

。确认最多的3个地区是：

在以开放边界为荣的欧洲联盟中，包括奥地利，克罗地亚，法国，德国，希腊，西班牙，挪威，格鲁吉亚，希腊和瑞士等都有确诊病例。大多数感染与意大利有关。

在中东，包括伊朗，阿联酋，巴林，科威特，伊拉克，阿曼，以色列，黎巴嫩等都有确诊病例录。大多数感染与伊朗有关。

在亚洲，包括中国，韩国，日本，新加坡，香港，澳门，马来西亚，泰国，越南等都有确诊病例。大多数感染与中国有关。

The Expected Bounce May Be Over 预期的反弹可能已结束

After rising 54 points, 1.7% from yesterday's close price earlier today, the S&P500 is now turning red, erasing all its morning gains. It is not looking good and the expected bounce may be over. The problem is bad news keep on coming on the COVID-19 virus. If the market close negative today,  the S&P500 may need to go down and test its 200 day moving average level at 3045.

The latest headlines on COVID-19 are:

。World Health Organization officials and US experts say it's too early to declare the coronavirus a pandemic — but now is the time to prepare.

。Every continent except Antarctica has reported coronavirus cases. 45 countries reported confirmed cases. South Korea, Japan, Italy and Iran are most worrisome for further virus spread.

。"Ultimately, we expect we will see community spread ( COVID-19) in this country," "It's not so much a question of if this will happen anymore, but rather more of a question of exactly when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illness," says Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.

。Germany health minister warns we're at beginning of epidemic in Germany.


New COVID-19 statistics:

标准普尔500指数早上涨54点，1.7％后，现在已变为负数，失去了全部早盘涨幅。看起来情况不妙，预期的反弹可能已经结束。问题是COVID-19病毒的坏消息继续不断传出。如果今天市场收盘为负数，则标准普尔500可能需要继续下跌并测试其200天移动平均线水平3045。

。世界卫生组织官员和美国专家表示，现在宣布冠状病毒为大流行病还为时过早-但现在是时候做好准备了。

。除了南极洲以外的每个大陆都报告了冠状病毒感染病例。 现在已经有45个国家报告了确诊病例。韩国，日本，意大利和伊朗最令人担心有进一步传播病毒。

。美国疾病预防控制中心国家主任南希·梅森尼尔（Nancy Messonnier）博士说：“最终，我们感觉会看到（COVID-19）在本国社区传播，”“与其说这种情况是否会发生，还不如说这会是什么时候发生，以及本国有多少人患有严重疾病的确切问题。”

。德国卫生部长警告说，病毒正在德国开始流行。


最新COVID-19统计