Reality Begins To Set In 现实开始介入

 Followings are what's going on among the four pillars of world's economy:

。The US 2020 first quarter GDP consensus estimate is 1.7% from Q4 2019's 2.1%
。Goldman Sachs estimates 0 growth for China in first quarter 2020
。Euro Zone Q4 2019 grew only 0.1% even before the COVID-19 was discovered, it will likely get worse in Q1 2020;
。Before COVID-19, Japan's Q4 2019 GDP was down 1.6% Q/Q and down 6.3% annualized, it will likely get worse in Q1 2020.

So the world economy has been slowing even before the COVID-19 pandemic. It can only get worse from here since the control of virus is still nowhere in sight.  The latest statistics of the COVID-19 are as follow:

The latest countries/regions to worry about are Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong since new infection confirmed cases has been increasing every day recently.

Meanwhile, the US stock market has ben rushing to new high ignoring global economic slow down and worsening COVID-19 situation. The divergent between stock price and the underlining economic fundamental will likely come to an end soon. This is because economists, analysts and corporations are going to come out and lower economic growth estimates, corporate profits and stock price targets.  I have been warning that this is the reality the market will likely face.  When these started to happen, stock market will pull back and high flying tech stocks are going to hit hard.

After both Cisco (CSCO) and Nvidia (NVDA) warned negative impact from COVID-19 virus when they reported financial results recently, Apple just now adds to the list by warning on coronavirus — it won’t meet revenue guidance because of constrained iPhone supply and suppressed demand in China. We can expect more and more companies are going to do the same thing and as a result their stock prices are going to suffer. Stocks with the biggest price appreciation will likely come down the most regardless of how prestige, how big and how good a growth story for a company is. Following is a list of companies which have both high 1 year appreciation and far above their 50 Day Moving  Averages. Naturally, this kind of stock will likely come down harder during a correction.

TSLA  53% above 50 DMA, 163% 1 year appreciation
NVDA 20.2% above 50 DMA, 87% 1 year appreciation
AMD  17% above 50 DMA, 139% 1 year appreciation
AMZN 13% above 50 DMA, 32% 1 year appreciation
MSFT 12.9% above 50 DMA, 73% 1 year appreciation
AMAT 9% above 50 DMA, 64% 1 year appreciation
AAPL 8.2% above 50 DMA, 90% 1 year appreciation
GOOG 7.6% above 50 DMA, 35% 1 year appreciation






以下是世界经济的四大支柱地区GDP成长情况：

。2020年美国第一季度GDP共识估计为1.7％，而2019年第四季度为2.1％。
。高盛（Goldman Sachs）估计2020年第一季度中国的增长率为0
。在发现COVID-19之前，欧元区2019年第4季度仅增长了0.1％，而2020年第1季度很可能会继续恶化。
。在COVID-19之前，日本2019年第四季度GDP环比下降1.6％，年化下降6.3％，而2020年第一季度很可能会变得更糟。

因此，即使在COVID-19大流行之前，世界经济就一直在放缓。从现在起情况只会变得更糟，因为对病毒的控制仍然遥遥无期。 COVID-19的最新统计数据如下：

最近令人担忧的国家/地区是日本，新加坡和香港，因为新感染确诊病例每天都在增加。

近来尽管全球经济放缓和COVID-19形势恶化，美国股市却日创新高。股票价格与经济基本面之间的分歧可能很快就会消失。这是因为经济学家，分析师和企业将降低经济增长预期，公司利润和股票价格目标。我一直在警告，这将是市场可能面临的现实。当这些事情开始发生时，股市将回落，价位上升过度的高科技股将遭受重创。

在思科（CSCO）和英伟达（NVDA）都在最近报告财务业绩时警告了COVID-19病毒的负面影响之后，刚加入行列的是苹果公司。苹果刚刚发出警告由于冠状病毒导iPhone供应不足和中国对苹果产品的需求减小而会令公司无法达到收入预期。我们可以预期，越来越多的公司将做同样的事情，结果股票将会遭到抛售。价格升幅最大的股票将会跌幅最大，无论公司的声望，规模和增长情况如何。以下是既具有高的1年升值幅度又远高于其50天移动平均线的股票列表。 自然，这种股票在下跌调整期间会下跌得更厉害。

TSLA高于50 DMA 53％，一年升值163％
NVDA高于50 DMA 20.2％，一年升值87％
AMD高于50 DMA 17％，一年升值139％
AMZN高于50 DMA13％，一年升值32％
MSFT高于50 DMA 12.9％，一年升值73％
AMAT高于50 DMA 9％，一年升值64％
AAPL高于50DMA 8.2％，一年升值90％
GOOG高于50 DMA7.6％，一年升值35％