Stock Market Down Trend Likely Continues 股市跌势将继续

An  big down day:

Due to rapid spreading of COVID-19 virus in Korea, Italy, Japan and Iran, investors are shocked and realize the seriousness of  situation , major US indexes dropped sharply at the open with the Dow dropping about 900 points. The market then bounced but was too weak to sustain. Major market indexes are making new lows of the day and continues their down trends. The Dow is now down 1002 points. It does look like the market will close near its low today. If major indexes close near their lows, more downside action tomorrow is likely.

Technically, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have all broken below their 50 Day Moving Averages and this is a sell signal for the market. Major market indexes are only down about 5% from their all time high levels and is not much of a correction consider we have got a Black Swan event still going on.  Since next major supports for the indexes are their 200 Day Moving averages, it would be reasonable that these levels would be challenged.  If the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped to their 200 Day Moving Averages, it would be a 7.9%, 10.25% and 14.9% drop from the top respectively.

Another indication that the stock market has more to drop is the performance of VIX ETF VXX.
VXX gapped above its 2 month range at 17 with good volume and has formed a bullish Double Bottom pattern. This is indicative of investors are getting scare which they haven't done so for a longtime.

The COVID-19 virus has spread to 35 countries world wide. It has been spreading fast in Asia, Europe and Middle East in the last few days. It is hard to imagine how can the global economy grow with major industrial countries/regions such as China, Japan, Korea and Europe are locking down.
It is not known when will the virus be contained, so it is unknown how bad the global economy will be impacted---it is a Black Swan Event!

The latest virus statics on the focused countries/regions:

一个大下跌日：

由于COVID-19病毒在韩国，意大利，日本和伊朗的迅速传播令投资者感到震惊并意识到形势的严重性，美国主要股指开盘大跌。道琼斯指数开盘下跌约900点。之后市场数度反弹，但反弹均太弱以至无法维持。主要市场指数正在创造今天新的低点，并继续下跌。道琼斯指数现在下跌了1039点。看起来市场似乎将在今天的低点附近收市。如果主要指数收于低点附近，明天可能会有更多的下行趋势。

从技术上讲，道琼斯指数，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数都已跌破了50日均线，这是市场的卖出信号。主要市场指数现在从历史最高水平下跌了5％左右，在黑天鹅事件仍在继续进行中的情况下，这并不是一个很大的修正。由各大指数的下一个主要支撑位是他们的200日移动均线，因此下跌挑战这些水平是合理的。如果道琼斯指数，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数跌至200日均线，则从顶部分别下降7.9％，10.25％和14.9％。

股市进一步下跌的另一个迹象是VIX ETF VXX的表现。VXX以大成交量跳空突破其2个月交易区上限水平12，并形成了看涨的双底形态。 这表明投资者已经感到恐慌，他们很长时间没有害怕了
。

COVID-19病毒已传播到全球35个国家。最近几天，它在亚洲，欧洲和中东迅速传播。很难想象，随着中国，日本，韩国和欧洲等主要工业国家/地区都在封锁的情况下，全球经济将如何会增长。现在不清楚何时病毒能够受到控制，因此不能知道全球经济将受到多大的影响---这就是黑天鹅事件！

重点关注国家/地区的最新病毒统计信息如下：