Sunday, February 23, 2020

Stock Market Sharp Correction Begins 股市大幅修正开始

11 reasons for the stock market to correct:

1. Weekend COVID-19 virus spread outside of China in an alarm way in South Korea, Japan, Italy and Iran.
2. Major US companies have been warnings on future earnings due to negative impact of coronavirus, and soon analysts will be downgrading economic growth and stock prices.
3. Inverted treasury yield curves fore tells US recession.
4. Strong Gold price performance and oil price trending down are not good signs.
5. China shut down, economic growth for Q1 is expected to be 0 and coronavirus has yet to be contained.
6. Japan is in recession and coronavirus is spreading fast
7. Germany is in recession and now coronavirus is spreading fast in Italy, its backyard.
8. South Korea economy has one of its worst two-year growth periods in more than half a century in 2019 and now coronavirus is spreading fast
9. Sentiment is too bullish: Good news is bullish, bad news is bullish, COVID-19 go pandemic is bullish. This will not end well.
10. Stock market has been overbought for a while now, it's time to correct.
11. The Buffett Indicator is at 158%, way over the fair value of 75% to 90%.





How the market unfold Monday morning will probably like this:

1. Shocking COVID-19 news from the weekend will start computer selling and cause the stock market to open sharply down.

2. Stop loss orders triggered sells, panic sells and short selling push the market even lower to around 7:30 to 8 AM Pacific Time when market reversal normally happens.

3. At around 7:30 to 8 AM Pacific Time ,as sellers quiet down, dare devil dip buyers came in and the market bounces.

4. As the market bounce up to intraday resistances, computer and short sellers come in and push down the market again.

5. Selling quiet down again and consolidates between 9 and 11:30 Pacific time. After trading in narrow range without making too much of an up side, once 11:30 has reached and this time is the point of no return as market usually continues with the morning down trend until close.

6. The market will likely trending down for the whole day as dip buyers lose all hope.

Sunday at 4 PM Pacific Time, stock index futures down sharply by averaging 1.3%:








证券市场开始下跌调整的11个原因:

1。COVID-19病毒周末,在中国以外地区,韩国,日本,意大利和伊朗以惊人的速度传播。
2。由于冠状病毒的负面影响,美国主要公司已就未来收益发出警告,分析师不久将下调经济增长和股票价格。
3。美国国债收益率曲线倒转预示美国经济衰退。
4。强劲的黄金价格表现和油价下跌的趋势均不是好兆头。
5。中国关闭,第一季度经济增长预计为0,并且尚未能遏制冠状病毒。
6。日本正处于衰退中,冠状病毒正在迅速传播
7。德国正处于衰退中,如今冠状病毒正在其后院意大利迅速传播。
8。韩国经济在2019年是半个多世纪以来最糟糕的两年增长期之一,而如今冠状病毒正在迅速传播。
9。投资人情绪太乐观:好消息看涨,坏消息看涨,COVID-19大流行也看涨。这种情况下不会有好结果。
10。股票市场已经超买了一段时间了,该下跌修正了。
11。巴菲特指标现已达到158%,远高于公允价值的75%至90%。





星期一早上市场的发展可能会是这样的:

1。周末令人震惊的COVID-19新闻将开始计算机的程式抛售,并导致股市大幅下跌。

2。止损定单被触发的卖盘,恐慌卖盘及空头卖盘推动市场进一步下跌至通常发生反转的太平洋时间7:30至8点。

3。在太平洋时间7:30到8 点左右,卖家安静下来,敢于冒险的买家进入市场,市场反弹。

4。随着市场反弹至盘中阻力,计算机的程式抛售和卖空者进入并再次压低市场。

5。买盘再次平息,并在太平洋时间9点和11:30之间窄幅整固。在窄幅交易并且没有推动市场上升多小的情况下,一旦过了11:30,这一次就没有回头的余地了,因为市场通常会随着早上的下跌趋势而持续下跌,直到收盘。

6。由于逢低买入者失去了所有希望,市场将会全天下跌。


周日太平洋时间下午4点,股指期货大幅下跌, 平均下跌1.3%:










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