The latest in COVID-19 virus developments are that there are around 67079 infected cases and 1523 deaths in the world. In China, 1716 medical worker have contracted the virus. Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong are reporting new infected cases. Unlike most of the countries that have reported cases of the virus, both Singapore and Hong Kong have confirmed human-to-human transmission within their own borders, meaning the outbreak has already started to spread past the 2nd and 3rd generations of the infected. Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said Friday that the coronavirus’ economic impact on the island nation’s economy has already exceeded that of SARS in 2003. The residents for the 56 infected patients in Hong Kong are so wide spread in the territory, it sure looks like more infected cases are fore coming.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lists 443 people as under investigation for the novel coronavirus across 42 states, according to an update posted to the agency's website Friday. Of these 443 cases, 15 have tested positive, 347 have tested negative, 81 are still pending. The American public’s risk of getting infected with the new coronavirus is “very low” but that could change “rapidly,” Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar told CNBC. Meanwhile, CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield told CNN's Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta in an interview on Thursday. "We don't know a lot about this virus," he said. "This virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we will get community-based transmission." Even though virus infected cases outside of China is still limited, Harvard’s professor of epidemiology Marc Lipsitch thinks it’s more likely to be that it’s gathering steam. It is just a matter of time before the virus spreads widely internationally, which means nations so far only lightly hit should prepare for its eventual arrival in force and what may seem like the worst flu season in modern times.
Based on the COVID-19 likely negatively impacting the Chinese economy, the latest estimate for China's Q1 2020 GDP growth ranged from 0 growth to 5.3%. Estimates will change as time passes since nobody knows when will the virus be under control. It can even be negative growth. As the Chinese economy goes south so will the world economy. What is crazy is that the US stock market is not reflecting this negative outlook, both the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 are still making new all time high today. Many have credited the strength of the stock market to liquidity injections by both the US and Chinese central banks. But the COVID-19 is a Black Swan Event and it's still unfolding, can the injection of liquidity stop the virus? Stock market price are now deeply diverged with fundamental and earnings. Stock market will likely crash when people wake up for this reality.
What are well said yesterday by Guggenheim Partners' Scott Minerd during an interview with CNBC : I have never in my career seen anything as crazy as what’s going on right now, this will eventually end badly. In the markets today, yields are low, spreads are tight, and risk assets are priced to perfection, but everywhere you look there are red flags. The coronavirus is a looming economic problem could prick the corporate debt bubble.
Bank of America analyst research notes that while we are now in the second longest US equity bull market of all time but also the 3rd largest asset bubble of the past 40 years. The bubble this time is the
e-Commerce stock bubble. e-Commerce stocks which consists of AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, TWTR, EBAY, FB, is up 617% since the financial crisis of 2005.
When will the bubble burst? Any time now since things are ripe for that. The continue spreading of the COVID-19 virus could be the event that cause the bubble to burst. Be prepared, its the calm before the storm.
COVID-19病毒的最新发展是，全世界大约有67079感染病例和1523死亡。在中国，有1716名医务人员感染了该病毒。日本，新加坡和香港今天都发现新的感染病例。与大多数报告该病毒病例的国家不同，新加坡和香港均已在其本国境内确认了人对人传播，这意味着疫情已经开始蔓延至感染的第二代和第三代。新加坡总理李显龙周五说，冠状病毒对岛国经济的影响已超过2003年的SARS。另外，香港56名受感染患者居住的地方分布在广泛的香港地域，看起来即将有更多的感染病例。
根据美国疾病预防控制中心周五发布的最新消息，美国疾病控制与预防中心列出了443名正在调查的42个州的新型冠状病毒。在这443例案例中，有15例呈阳性，347例呈阴性，还有81例仍在审理中。卫生和公共服务部长亚历克斯·阿扎尔（Alex Azar）告诉CNBC，美国公众被新型冠状病毒感染的风险尽管“非常低”，但情况可能会“迅速改变”。同时，疾病预防控制中心主任罗伯特·雷德菲尔德（Robert Redfield）博士在星期四的采访中告诉美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）的首席医学记者桑杰·古普塔（Sanjay Gupta）博士。他说：“我们对该病毒了解甚少。” “这种病毒可能会在本季节之后及今年以后都会存在。我认为最终该病毒将找到立足点，并且我们将会有社区为本的传播。”哈佛大学流行病学教授马克·利普西奇（Marc Lipsitch）认为，尽管在中国境外受病毒感染的病例仍然很有限，但很有可能正在积聚力量。该病毒在国际上广泛传播只是时间问题，这意味着迄今为止受轻度打击的国家应该为最终会到来而成为现代最严重流感季节做好准备。
基于COVID-19可能对中国经济产生负面影响，分析师对中国2020年第一季度GDP增长的最新估计是从0增长到5.3％不等。由于没有人知道病毒何时会受到控制，估计值会随着时间而改变。GDP甚至可能是负增长。随着中国经济变坏，世界经济也不会好。令人疯狂的是，美国股市并没有反映出这种负面前景，纳斯达克综合指数和标准普尔500指数今天仍在创历史新高。许多人将股市的上升归功于美国和中国中央银行的向市场注资。但是，COVID-19是一场“黑天鹅事件”，并且还在不断变坏中，资金的注入能阻止该病毒的传播吗？现在，股票市场的价格与经济基本面和企业盈利之间存在严重分歧。当人们猛然醒悟这个现实时，股市将崩盘。
古根海姆合伙人公司(Guggenheim Partners) 的斯科特·迈纳德（Scott Minerd）昨天在接受CNBC采访时说得好：我从没在职业生涯中见过像现在这样疯狂的事情，但最终结果将会很糟糕。在当今的市场中，收益率低，利差很小，风险资产的定价已趋于完美，但随处可见危险信号。冠状病毒是一个迫在眉睫的经济问题，可能会刺破公司债务泡沫。
美国银行分析师研究指出，尽管我们目前处于有史以来第二长的美国股票牛市，但也是过去40年中的第三大资产泡沫。这次的泡沫是电子商务股票泡沫。自2005年金融危机以来，由AMZN，NFLX，GOOG，TWTR，EBAY，FB组成的电子商务股票已上涨了617％。
泡沫何时破裂？现在一切条件都已经成熟了。 COVID-19病毒的继续传播很可能是导致泡沫破裂的事件。现在只是暴风雨来临前的平静，是要做好准备的时候了。
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