State Of The Virus And The Stock Market 病毒及股市现状

As of February 21,7:50 AM Pacific time, there are 75891 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 2236 deaths in the world. WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros said this morning that "The window of opportunity is narrowing, and humanity is running out of time to stop this virus before things get much, much worse."

Overnight confirmed infection cases in South Korea and Japan surged to 204 and 107 respectively. Iran's official confirmed 18 cases while report says it is likely thousands. Both Israel and Lebanon reported their first confirmed case. Meanwhile in China "coronavirus infection cluster emerged in several prisons in China with two prisons reporting over 200 infections each. It has left the impression that epidemic is rebounding, which has weakened public confidence to some extent" wrote Hu xi Jin, an influential winter in China.  The Chinese government has  order workers back to work and signaled that they will be "punished" if they don't . This is an act of trying to save the economy but at the risk of further spreading of COVID-19 virus.

There is bad news in the US economy this morning. Flash February Composite PMI plunged to 49.6 (estimate is 53.3) into contraction. This is  the first contraction since October 2013, reminding us the negative impact of the COVID-19.

So how has the US stock market doing so far this morning? The Dow after dropping 327 points to 28893, dip buyers again rushed in and pushed it back up 197 points to 29090. There' s still plenty of hope in the market that the COVID-19 crisis will soon be over and the impact to the US economy will be  limited. I highly doubt that since the virus has not yet contained in China and is spreading rapidly globally and nobody know how bad it will turn out. But we do need to respect the strength of the buying every time the market dips. Today's market action is very critical. If we see dip buying retreat and stock market closing near low of the day, then the market uptrend would be ready to crack and a larger sell off will ensue. Especially if the Dow drops below it's 50 day moving average at 28803. I believe the market will likely crack since this is a Friday. Traders don't want to hold positions over the weekend as bad news may develop.

截至太平洋时间2月21日上午7:50，全球共有75891例确诊的COVID-19病例和2236死亡。WHO总干事特德罗斯博士今天上午说，“机会之窗正在缩小，人类越来越没有时间来阻止这种病毒变得越来越糟。”

一夜之间确诊的韩国和日本感染病例分别激增至204和107。伊朗官员确认了18起案件，而报告称可能有数千起。以色列和黎巴嫩都报告了第一例确诊病例。与此同时，在中国，“有冠状病毒感染群出现在中国的几个监狱中，其中两个监狱各报告200例以上的感染。这给人留下了流行病正在反弹的印象，这在一定程度上削弱了公众的信心”，中国著名作家胡锡进说。中国政府已下令工人重返工作岗位，并表示如果不这样做，将受到“惩罚”。这是试图挽救经济的行为，但有可能带来进一步传播COVID-19病毒的风险。

今天早上有个美国经济的坏消息。 2月综合PMI闪爆骤降至49.6（估计为53.3）。这是自2013年10月以来的首次收缩，这消息提醒我们COVID-19对经济的负面影响。

那么，今天上午到目前为止美国股市表现如何？道琼斯指数曾一度下跌327点，至28893，逢低买盘再次涌入，将其推升197点，至29090。市场仍然抱有COVID-19危机将很快结束，并且对美国的影响经济将受到限制的大希望。我高度怀疑该病毒在中国尚未受到控制，并且正在全球迅速传播，没有人知道它会导致多严重的后果。但是，每当市场下跌时，我们确实需要尊重逢低买入的强劲力量。今天的市场行为将会非常关键。如果我们看到逢低买入买盘退却，并且股票市场在一天的低点附近收盘，那么市场上升趋势将停止，随后将会出现更大的抛售。尤其是如果道琼斯指数跌低于50日移动均线28803水平。我认为由于这是星期五，市场走跌到底的机会大。炒家不想在周末持仓，因为担忧坏消息的发生。