1. On February 12，coronavirus infected cases increase by a huge 14840 , almost 10 times yesterday's number. Death increase by 242 to 1367. WHO official said too early to predict the end of the current coronavirus outbreak. According to leading health epidemiologist professor Gabriel Leung of Hong Kong University, the coronavirus epidemic could spread to about 2/3 of the world's population if not controlled.
2. Of the 4 largest economy in the world, the estimated GDP growth for United States is 1.9%, China Q1 growth down to 1% compare to 6% before, Euro Area growth is 0 and Japanese growth is 0.3%. These projections could be worse if the coronavirus cannot be controlled. As the US stock indexes are at all time high, it diverges greatly with economic fundamentals. Stock market will likely come down to match fundamentals.
3. Since 80 cities in 20 provinces in China are locked down affecting 400 million people, Chinese economy are hurting badly. As its effect to the world, estimates are that 2/3 of Chinese industrial supply chain to Japan already shut down, almost completely shut down to South Korea , impact on Taiwan, Germany and other big manufacturing exporters must also be severe. What are going to come are analysts will unavoidably downgrade economic outlook , corporate earnings and stock price targets soon.
4. Nasdaq Composite Index is 7% above it's 50 Day Moving Average. A market correction normally happen when the index is 5% above its 50 Day Moving average.
5. The Shanghai Composite index has been up 8 days in a row before today and is hitting resistance. It's time for a downward correction. It is coming down 02/13 China Time. World stock market tends to follow Chinese stock market trend now since development of the coronavirus is the main focus.
6. Watch out for Friday! On January 24，Friday the Dow dropped 170 points, Friday the week before, the Dow down 603 points and down 277 points last Friday. Selling likely intensifies on this Friday again as investors avoid weekend risks.
仅查看道琼斯指数，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数的图表，股市是看涨的。但是，如果您考虑世界经济的发展方向和仍在传播的冠状病毒，则应该卖出股票，至少不要买入。以下是美国股市即将下跌的6个原因：
1。2月12日，冠状病毒感染病例飙升了14840，是昨天的差不多10倍。死亡人数增加了242人，达到1367人。世卫组织官员说，现在还无法预测目前的冠状病毒何时结束。根据香港大学流行病学流行病学教授梁启超的说法，如果不加以控制，冠状病毒的流行可能蔓延至2/3世界的人口。
2。在世界第四大经济体中，美国的GDP估计增长率为1.9％，中国第一季度的增长率从之前的6％下降至1％，欧元区的增长率为0，日本的增长率为0.3％。如果不能控制冠状病毒，这些预测可能会更糟。由于美国股指一直处于高位，因此与经济基本面大相径庭。股市将会下跌以符合基本面情况。
3。由于中国封锁了20个省的80个城市，影响了4亿人口，中国经济正在受到严重伤害。就其对世界的影响而言，估计中国对日本的工业供应链的2/3已经关闭，几乎对韩国完全关闭，对台湾，德国和其他大型制造业出口商的影响也必定严重。即将发生的事情是分析师将不可避免地调降经济前景，企业收益和股票价格目标。
4。纳斯达克综合指数价位比50天移动平均线高出7％。当指数比其50天移动平均线高5％时，市场下跌修正通常会发生。
5。上证综指在今天之前已经连续八天上涨，并且正已遇到阻力。中国时间02/13上证下来了。由于冠状病毒的发展情况是目前的主要关注点，因此世界股票市场现在倾向于跟随中国股票市场的趋势。
6。当心星期五！1月24日星期五道琼斯指数下跌170点，前一周的周五，下跌603点，上周周五下跌277点。由于投资者规避周末风险，本周五的抛售可能再次剧烈。
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