Imminent Rate Cut May Help Market Bounce 即将降息会有助于市场反弹

Stock market drop this week is so dramatic and extreme, a short term relief rally is imminent although the market trend is still down. It is an opportunity to capture very short term profits by buying stocks.  Fibonacci levels on the S&P 500 points to possible bounce to levels. Following are some reasons:

1. The Federal Reserve is under tremendous pressure to cut interest rate. The odd for March rate cut is 100%. The odd of 0.5% cut is 57.2% while for 0.25% cut is 42.8%. Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh suggests Fed should cut rate no later than this coming Sunday to avoid further panic. So there is a chance that Fed may cut interest at any time. Major market indexes are now still near their lows, the rate cut situation has not yet reflected in the market.

2. CNN Fear and Greed Indicator is at extreme fear level of 8 (this is the lowest I have ever seen). Extreme fear in the market means the market is ready to bounce.

3. Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all bounced off from their supports at 24700, 2855 and 8260. Dow dropped from 29568 high to today's 8264 low, a 16.5%  in 9 days. S&P 500 dropped from 3393 high to today's 2856 low, a 15.8% in 7 days. And Nasdaq Composite dropped from 9638 high to 8264, a 14.3% in 7 days. The drops are to much too fast.

本周股市下跌是如此的剧烈和极端，尽管市场趋势仍是下跌，但短期反弹即将到来。这是一个非常短期买股票获利润的好机会。下面的标普500指数图列出的斐波那契价位水平是反弹时的阻力水平。以下是一些原因：

1. 美联储正面临着降息的巨大压力。 3月降息的几率是100％。降息0.5％的几率是57.2％，而降息0.25％的几率是42.8％。前美联储行长凯文•沃什（Kevin Warsh）建议美联储在不迟于本周日降息，以避免进一步的恐慌。因此，美联储有可能随时会减息。目前主要市场指数仍处于低位，降息情况尚未在市场上反映出来。

2. CNN恐惧和贪婪指标处于8的极端恐惧水平（这是我见过的最低水平）。市场极度恐惧意味着市场会随时反弹。

3.道琼斯指数，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均已从各自的支撑位24700、2855和8260反弹。道琼斯指数从29568高位回落至今天的8264低点，在9天之内下跌了16.​​5％。标普500从3393点高点跌至今天的2856点低点，在7天内下跌了15.8％。纳斯达克综合指数从9638点跌至8264点，在7天内下跌了14.3％。跌的太快，太多了。