Bullish And Bearish Reasons For The Market 市场看涨及看跌的理由

From reading blogs today, I found the following bullish and bearish reasons for the US stock market. In case you miss them, here they are:

Bullish Views：

The Fat Pitch (https://fat-pitch.blogspot.com) : SPX has gained more than 1.8% each week in the past 3 weeks. Since 1950, that has happened only 13 times. Over the next 1, 3 and 6 months, only one year experienced a significant drawdown (1973, the year of the oil embargo). The other 12 instances (92%) gained an average of another 6% and 9% in the next 3 and 6 months, respectively (table from Troy Bombardia).

On Wednesday, a "breakaway breadth thrust" occurred. As explained by Walter Deemer, this occurs when 10-day advancers are twice 10-day decliners. This sounds simple but it requires persistent strength without any intervening weakness over a 2 week period. In the past 70 years, this has occurred only 21 times.

According to Mr. Deemer: "Cyclical bull markets are traditionally heralded by breakaway momentum." And he's right: breakaway momentum like this has taken place at the start of 8 new bull markets (highlighted below). It has never taken place within the context of a bear market (table from Walter Deemer).

The rally off the Christmas Eve low has now exceeded 10% for SPX. A sharp fall (more than 15% in less than 3 months) followed by a sharp rally (at least 10% in 10 days) like this has only occurred 12 times in the past 75 years. Forward returns were very good:  SPX was higher 75% of the time after 3 months and 83% of the time after 12 months, with a median gain of 18% (from Bespoke).

In summary：Sharp falls of at least 15% have a strong tendency to have their original low retested in the weeks/months ahead. But what is notable this time is the exceptional breadth that has driven the indices higher: in the past 70 years, this has never taken place within the context of a bear market. The Christmas low may still get retested, but it seems likely to hold and new highs are probably ahead. Nothing in the stock market is ever guaranteed, but this has been the consistent, historical pattern.

Bearish Views：

Carl Swenlin （Stockcharts.com） : One of my favorite chart patterns is the wedge. Rising or falling, they arrive frequently and usually resolve predictably. On this chart there happen to be two rising wedge formations. The first one led us into the bull market top in September/October of 2018. It resolved downward, as expected, but I have to admit that the massive downside follow through was atypical to say the least. The current rising wedge off the December low should also resolve downward. That is not guaranteed, but, since we're in a bear market, it is more likely.

There has been a tremendous amount of “technical damage” done to the market in recent months which will take some time to repair. Important trend lines have been broken, major sell-signals are in place, and major moving averages have crossed each other signaling downward pressure for stocks. While the chart is a bit noisy, just note the vertical red lines. There have only been a total of 6-periods in the last 25-years where all the criteria for a deeper correction have been met. While the 2011 and 2015 markets did NOT fall into more protracted corrections due to massive interventions by Central Banks, the current decline has no such support currently.

今日阅读博文找到了一些看涨及看跌理由。如果你错过了，下面就是：

看涨的理由：

The Fat Pitch (https://fat-pitch.blogspot.com):  SPX在过去3周内每周上涨超过1.8％。 自1950年以来，这种情况只发生了13次。 在接下来的1, 3和6个月中，只有一年经历了显着的下跌（1973年，即石油禁运年）。 其他12个案例（92％）分别在接下来的3个月和6个月内平均增加了6％和9％（下表来自Troy Bombardia）。

周三，发生了“突破性的广泛推力”。 正如沃尔特·迪默（Walter Deemer）所解释的那样，10天的上升股票是10天下降股票的两倍。 这听起来很简单但动力需要持续，而且在2周的时间内没有在走弱。 在过去的70年里，这种情况只发生了21次。

Deemer先生表示：“周期性牛市传统上受到突破势头的预示。” 他是对的：像这样的突破势头发生在8个新牛市的开始（下面重点介绍）。 它从未在熊市的背景下发生过（下表由Walter Deemer提供）。

$SPX圣诞节前夕低点的反弹现已超过10％。 如此大幅下跌（不到3个月内跌幅超过15％），之后出现大幅反弹（10天内至少10％），这在过去的75年中仅发生了12次。 远期回报是非常好的：SPX在3个月后有75％和12个月后有83％时间上升，中位数涨幅为18％（来自Bespoke）。

总结：在至少15％的急剧下降后，很大机会在未来几周/几个月内重新测试其原来的低点。 但值得注意的是，这次指数走高有着特殊的广度：在过去的70年里，这种情况从未发生在熊市的背景下。 圣诞节低点可能仍会得到重新测试，但可能会稳住，而以后会在创新的高点。 股票市场中没有任何东西得到保证，但这是一贯的历史模式。


看跌的理由：

Carl Swenlin (stockcharts.com)：我最喜欢的图表模式之一是楔形。 上升或下降，他们经常发生并且通常都预测准确。 在这张图表上，碰巧有两个上升的楔形结构。 第一个引导我们进入2018年9月/ 10月的牛市顶部。它正如预期的那样向下急跌，但我不得不承认，这种大跌是非典型的。 目前12月低点的上升楔形也应该向下解决。 尽管这不能保证，但是，由于我们处于熊市，因此可能性更大。

Lance Roberts （RealinvestmentAdvice.com)：最近几个月市场出现了大量“技术损害”，需要一段时间才能修复。 重要趋势线已被打破，主要卖出信号已经到位，主要移动平均线相互交叉，表明股市的下行压力大。虽然图表有点杂乱，但请注意垂直的红线。 在过去25年中，总共只有6个时期满足了更深层次修正的所有标准。 虽然由于中央银行的大规模干预，2011年和2015年的市场没有陷入更持久的修正，但目前的下跌还没有得倒这样的支持。

星期六阅读 Saturday Reads

。从上个月开始的政府关闭周六将成为第22天，是历史上最长的关闭。唐纳德特朗普总统拒绝批准联邦预算，除非它包括边境墙的资金。但民主党拒绝了他的57亿美元（45亿英镑）的请求。在达成支出计划之前，大约四分之一的联邦政府已经停止运营，导致80万名员工无薪。 --- BBC

。特蕾莎梅的策略是将周二（1月15日）的投票描述为一个开放式的三方游戏 - 协议，没有协议，没有英国退欧 - 显然没有奏效。她没有吓倒对手，反而完全相反。艰难的留欧派和坚硬的离欧派都相信他们会因拒绝她的提议而更好。这当然不是两者兼而有之，但现在重要的是他们持有这些观点。英国广播公司的研究显示，该提议目前将被大多数228人拒绝。该提议的支持实际上在假期期间有所下降。 --- Mish Talk

。阿曼石油部长Mohammed Al-Rumhi告诉彭博电视台，石油输出国组织与包括俄罗斯和阿曼在内的合作伙伴之间的协议可以维持每桶60美元的价格。他认为今年油价将交易于去年底部和每桶70美元之间。意大利Eni SpA首席执行官Claudio Descalzi告诉Bloomberg TV，油价范围在每桶60美元至62美元之间。 ---彭博

。根据纽约时报的消息，代理人和联邦调查局高级官员“对2016年竞选期间特朗普先生与俄罗斯的关系产生了怀疑”，但他们开始对他进行调查并没由开始。人们说，部分原因是他们不确定如何处理对这种敏感性和程度的调查。 --- Zerohedge

。市场正处于一个真实的时刻。 它们将在这个区域翻转下跌或者突破上次大跌开始时的阻力水平。 它不仅仅是基本面和数学......它是人类的行为。 从技术上讲，市场先转跌然后再次攻击这些阻力的可能性很大。 从根本上说，没有人真正知道。 --- Howard Lindzon

。MacKenzie Bezos是谁? ---纽约时报 https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/12/style/jeff-bezos-mackenzie-divorce.html?partner=rss&emc=rss


。The government shutdown, which begins last month, will become the longest in history on Saturday on its 22nd day. President Donald Trump is refusing to approve a federal budget unless it includes funding for a border wall. But Democrats have rejected his request for $5.7bn (£4.5bn). About a quarter of the federal government is out of operation until a spending plan is agreed, leaving 800,000 employees unpaid.  ---BBC

。Theresa May's strategy to portray Tuesday's vote as an open-ended three-way game - deal, no deal, no Brexit - has clearly not worked. Instead of scaring her opponents, she achieved the exact opposite. The hard Remainers and the hard Leavers both Believe that they will better off by rejecting her deal. The can of course not both be, but what matters for now is the fact that they hold those views. BBC research shows that the deal would currently be rejected by a majority of 228. Support for the deal has actually declined over the holiday period. ---Mish Talk

。Oman Oil Minister Mohammed Al-Rumhi told Bloomberg TV that the agreement between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and partners including Russia and Oman can sustain prices at $60 a barrel. He sees crude trading between that bottom and $70 a barrel this year. Claudio Descalzi , the chief executive officer of Italy's Eni SpA, told Bloomberg TV the range will be between $60 and $62 a barrel.  ---Bloomberg

。According to the NYT, agents and senior FBI officials "had grown suspicious of Mr. Trump's ties to Russia during the 2016 campaign" but held off on opening an investigation into him, the people said, in part because they were uncertain how to proceed with An inquiry of such sensitivity and magnitude. ---Zerohedge

。The markets are at a moment of truth. They will roll over in this area or start to eat through this technical resistance at the points of the breakdown. It's not just fundamentals and math...it's human behavior. Technically, the odds are we roll over Before we make another attack at these levels. Fundamentally, nobody really knows. ---Howard Lindzon

。Who is MacKenzie Bezos? ---New York Times  https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/12/style/jeff-bezos-mackenzie-divorce.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

下周市场将走向何方？Which Way The Market Go Next Week?

今天收市道指收报23995.90 -6, 标普500 2595.65 -0.99, 纳指6969.70 -16.37, 罗素2000 1447.10 -1.67。它们还是低于它们的阻力水平分别是24000, 2600, 7008及1455。从12月26日低位，道指＋10.5%, 标普500 ＋10.6%, 纳指＋12.5%, 罗素2000 ＋14.1%。各大指数都已大升过并且正面对阻力及不被看好的第4季企业财报，照理市场回调的机会大。不过，自从三天前到了阻力后虽然它们都过不去但也不肯下来。近两日早盘都曾大跌过但收市前都又买盘进入推高股市。大升后在高位整理是强势的表现。这显示很多人还是对美股乐观的。短期美股方向还是难以判断的。那就要靠下星期企业财报结果来决定了。由于全球经济发展的不明朗，企业的盈利前景却不容乐观。所以美股在企业财报后下跌的机会大。

下星期具影响力的财报有：星期一的JPM, UNH, WFC, DAL, UAL。星期二的 BAC, GS, AA, CSX。星期四的MS, NFLX, AXP。星期五的SLB，VFC。

下星期的财报大都是银行。第四季度股票发行和并购不活跃将影响投资银行收入。 然而，稳健的贷款增长应该会增加净利息收入。 高盛(GS)的结果将受到严格审查，以了解1MDB马来西亚基金丑闻给银行带来的损失。Netflix (NFLX) 自从12底以来已经攀升了46％。NFLX下星四的财报非常关键，因为股价近来以反映了很多好消息。相信NFLX的财报将是最为危险的，或将会是拖累大市的股票。


Today, the Dow closed at 23,995.90 -6, S&P 500 2595.65 -0.99, Nasdaq 6696.78 -16.37, Russell 2000 1447.10 -1.67. They are still below their resistance levels of 24000, 2600, 7008 and 1455 respectively. From the low of December 26, the Dow +10.5%, S&P 500 +10.6%, Nasdaq +12.5%, Russell 2000 +14.1%. All major indices have risen sharply and facing resistances and the not so optimistic fourth quarter corporate earnings report,  the odd favors a market correction. However, since major indexes hit their the resistance three days ago, even though they have not broken above, they are not willing to come down either. In the past two days, they all fell sharply in the morning, but they were able to rally before the market close.  Consolidating near high prices is a show of strength for the market . This shows that many people are still optimistic about the US stock market. The short-term direction of US stocks is still difficult to judge. That will all depend on the results of corporate earning results next week and the coming weeks. Due to the uncertainty of global economy , the corporate profit prospects are not optimistic. Therefore, the chance of US stock market correction after the corporate earning reports is high.

Next week's influential earnings are: Monday's JPM, UNH, WFC, DAL, UAL. Tuesday's BAC, GS, AA, CSX. Thursday's MS, NFLX, AXP. Friday's SLB, VFC.

Next week's earnings are mostly from banks. Quiet stock issuance and mergers and acquisitions in the fourth quarter will affect investment bank income. However, steady loan growth should increase net interest income. The results of Goldman Sachs (GS) will be scrutinized to understand the losses that the 1MDB Malaysian fund scandal has brought to the bank. Netflix (NFLX) has climbed 46% since the bottom last December. NFLX's earnings report next Thursday is critical because the stock's recent rise has reflected a lot of good news.  NFLX's earning report seem most risky,  it probably will be a negative for the market.

什么支撑住今早的美股 ？What Is Supporting Today's Market？

主要市场指数已经触及阻力位，而且可怕的收益季节又快将到来，股票市场下跌是很自然的现象。 股市在开盘时大幅下挫，但自从早盘以来市场已收复了大部分涨幅。 什么是支撑了市场？有人正在购买或打算购买股票，这就是原因。 我怎么知道的？ VXX的强势告诉我。 有人通过购买VXX以对冲即将到来的市场买盘。 整个上午，VXX一直偏离市场，即市场下跌，VXX也下跌（正常行为是市场下跌，VXX上涨）。 这告诉我，很有可能在今天的某个时候会又买盘出现。当然着可能只是今天的表现, 是暂时的。

Major market indexes have hit their resistances and the scarely earning season is dead ahead,  it's only natural the stock market to come down and correct. The stock market dropped sharply at the open but since have been recovered a lot of its morning losses. What is holding the market up?
Somebody is buying or intends to buy stock, that's why. How do I know that? The strength in VXX tell me so. Somebody is front running the market by buying VXX to hedge the impending market rally. All morning the VXX has been diverge from the market, that is market down and the VXX is also down (the normal behavior is market down, VXX up). This is telling me that there is a good chance that buying is coming by sometime today. Of cause, this effect may only last for today, only temporary.

主要股指触及阻力 Major Stock Indexes Hit Resistances

前天，纳斯达克综合指数和罗素2000指数分别接近它们的50天移动平均线6702和1454阻力。 昨日，道指和标准普尔500指数分别触及24000和2600阻力。美国市场今早开始下跌。在主要市场指数从2018年12月26日的低位上涨近11％并触及阻力位后，近期涨幅的回落是自然而然的。 特别是在美国政府关闭，美中贸易谈判仍待完成，并担心即将到来的第四季度财报的情况下。 苹果最近的营业额警告，昨天Macys和美国航空公司削减了他们的收入预期，今天由于中国经济放缓，高盛（Goldman Sachs）降低星巴克和百胜（Yum）的评级似乎并不适合看好这个财报季节。 对于标准普尔500指数而言，回撤至2470至2500水平是正常的。


The day before yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Russell 2000 both getting very close to their 50 Day Moving Averages 6702 and 1454 respectively and the Dow and the S&P 500 hitting resistances 24000 and 2600 respectively yesterday, US market is dropping sharply this morning.
After major market indexes rising nearly 11% from December 26, 2018 low and hitting resistances, it is only natural a retracement of the recent gain is due. Especially with US government shut down, US-China trade talk still needs to complete and fear of forth coming Q4 earning reports. Apple's recent revenue warning, yesterday Macys and American Airline slashed their earning estimates and today Goldman Sachs downgrading both Starbucks and Yum due to slow down in China don't seem to be good for this earning season. For S&P 500, a retracement down to 2470 to 2500 level is normal.

早盘市场新闻头条 Morning Market News Headlines

。联邦政府周五连续第21天关闭，引发市场担心关闭可能拖延很长时间。 特朗普总统表示，如果白宫和国会无法达成协议以结束停工，他将“可能”宣布国家紧急状态。

。由于消费者称这些手机不值这笔费用，因此零售商正在削减iPhone在中国的价格。

。在来自中国和欧元区的CPI和PPI报告疲弱之后，美国CPI与预期完全一致，同比增长1.9％。消费者价格增长是2017年8月以来最慢。

。由于对中国的担忧，高盛将星巴克(SBUX)的评级从买入下调至中性。 该公司还将星巴克的目标价格从75美元下调至68美元。 高盛还将百胜（YUM）餐饮评级下调至卖出。

。GM称，预计2019年盈利增长，预计今年每股盈利6.50美元至7.00美元，而市场预期为5.95美元。 调整后的汽车自由现金流量预计在45亿美元至60亿美元之间。

。The federal government holding closed on Friday for a 21st straight day, stoking fears the shutdown could drag on for a long time. President Trump said he will "probably" declare a national emergency if the White House and Congress cannot reach a deal to end the shutdown.

。Retailers are slashing iPhone prices across China as consumers say the phones aren't worth the cost.

。After weak CPI and PPI reports from China and Euro Area, US CPI came in exactly in line with expectations +1.9% year over year and Consumer price growth is the slowest since Aug 2017.

。Goldman Sachs downgrades Starbucks (SBUX)to neutral from buy, citing China concerns. The firm also lowered its price target on Starbucks to $68 from $75. Goldman also downgrade Yum Brands(YUM) to sell.

。GM says it expects earnings growth in 2019 and forecasts EPS of $6.50 to $7.00 for the year vs. $5.95 consensus. Adjusted automotive free cash flow of between $4.5B and $6.0B is expected.

美股有抗跌的表现 Market Is Resilient To The Downside

道指在今早开盘后下跌约0.7％但它已经恢复到正数。 BA和CAT的强势带领道琼斯指数走高。标准普尔500指数，纳斯达克指数和罗素2000指数也从早前的低点回升。由于主要股指接近其50日移动平均线阻力位，因此它们更有可能从这些水平下跌，但是，指数只是在没有太大的下行的情况下巩固在阻力位下方。市场有抗跌的表现，这是正面的。主要市场指数可能试图在短期内向上测试它们的50天移动平均线。由于纳斯达克综合指数是最接近其50日移动平均线7009水平的指数，因此应对它谨慎观察。现在纳指交易价格约为6954。

今天的负面消息是：梅西百货（M）和美国航空公司（AAL）降低它们的盈利指引，中国报出疲软的消费者和生产者价格通胀显示经济放缓，美中贸易3天的谈判结束后宣布的细节不多，不令投资人满意，昨日特朗普总统与民主党领导人会晤无结果后，部分政府继续第20天关闭。

The Dow was down about 0.7% after it opened this morning. It has since recovered to positive.  Strength in BA and CAT are leading the Dow up.  S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 also come back up from their earlier lows. As major indexes are near their 50 Day Moving Average resistances, they are more likely to come down from these levels, however, the indexes are only consolidating  below their resistances without too much downside. The market is showing resilience to the downside and this is positive. Major market indexes may try to test their 50 Day Moving Averages near term. Since the Nasdaq Composite Index is the index that is closest to its 50 Day Moving Average 7009 level and should be watch carefully. It is now trading around 6954.

Today's negative news are : Macy's (M) and American Airline (AAL) are lowering their earning guidance, China reported weak consumer and producer price inflation indicating economy slow down, not much detail announced after a 3 day US-China trade talk and Partial government shut down continues for the 20th day after President Trump stomped out of a meeting with Democratic leaders.

有用的股市推文送给你 Useful Market Tweets For You

hks55‏ @hks55 2h2 hours ago

no i am not going to answer any questions about this. dont ask. $DJI $SPX

Jesse Colombo‏Verified account @TheBubbleBubble 4h4 hours ago

S&P 500 Testing Historical Kiss Of Resistance: https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/2019/01/sp-500-testing-historical-kiss-resistance/ … by @KimbleCharting $SPY $SPX

Elliottwave Forecast‏ @ElliottForecast 4m4 minutes ago

$SPX looking for the Index to reach 2619 - 2727 where a 3 waves pullback at least can happen #elliottwave

StockReversals.com 📈‏ @StockReversals 11h11 hours ago

$SPX $SPY $ES Likewise, the SP 500 McClellan Oscillator has gone from severe oversold (-174) to heavily overbought (+82) in just a matter of days, so a pullback is likely any day now.

Steven‏ @SMCya21 13m13 minutes ago

$IWM led $SPX on the way down in Oct and it will be first to turn from this bounce. Call it a bear flag/rising channel/whatever but unless it breaks out above the channel and busts above 146 it's still a bear market counter trend rally imo

OCCUPY WISDOM‏ @OccupyWisdom 8h8 hours ago

Where did $SPX run to?

纳斯达克综合指数回撤时机已成熟 The Nasdaq Composite Index is ripe for a pull back

纳斯达克综合指数自2018年12月26日的低点（6190）上涨12.8％。在下行趋势的市场中，这是一次强劲的反弹。现在是时候测试这次涨势的强势了，因为它在50日移动平均线7013处面临着强大的阻力。今天的高点仅比这个水平低28点。纳斯达克通常不太可能在没有任何回调的情况下通过这个阻力。今天$ COMPQ图表形成了过去7天中最小的蜡烛，这标志着一个大动作即将到来。它已经经历了一波强劲的上升，预计大幅下跌是合理的。

下行幅度会有多大？最近一次反弹幅度的38％回撤要求下跌至6683区域。这将是274点，下降3.9％。对于较有力量的反弹来说，这是一个正常的回调幅度。对于较弱的反弹，需要回撤50％。如果是这样，那要下降到6589。这将是一个368点，下降5.3％的回撤。无论如何，如果任何上述两种情况的一种发生都仍然是正常的回撤。最糟糕的情况是熊市继续，那么2018年12月26日的低点将被重新测试。


The Nasdaq Composite Index has rallied 12.8% from its December 26, 2018 low (6190). It has been a powerful bounce in a downtrend market. Now is the time to test the strength of this rally as it faces formidable resistance at 50 Day Moving Average level at 7013. Today's high was only 28 point short of this level. It is normally not likely for the Nasdaq to rally through this resistance without any pullback. Today $COMPQ chart formed the smallest candle of the last 7 days, this signals a big move is to follow. The fact that it has been up strongly, it is reasonable to anticipate a big down move is in the making.

How big will be the downside move? 38% retracement of the latest uptrend call for a drop to 6683 area. This would be a 274 point, 3.9% drop. This is a normal drop for a rally with strength. For a weaker rally, a 50% retracement is called for. If that's the case, it would be a drop to 6589. This would be a 368 point, 5.3% drop. In any case, if any of the above 2 cases happened, it is still consider as normal retracement.  The worst case would be the bear market returns and the December 26, 2018 low would be retested.

美股涨势将继续到收市 Market Rally Likely Continue Till The Close

联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要显示，美联储对未来加息可以保持耐心。 FOMC会议纪要公布后，主要市场指数继续走高。 推动市场走高的其他因素是原油价格走势特别强劲（+ 5.2％），苹果AAPL强势增长2％，AMZN 已从负转正（＋0.4%），半导体ETF SMH + 2.68％，石油股ETF OIH + 2.76％，社交媒体ETF SOCI + 2.47％。 市场不太可能在这么接近收市的时候改变方向，更多的买盘可能会在收盘时出现。


Fed ‘can afford to be patient’ about future rate hikes, FOMC minutes show. Major market indexes moves higher after the release of FOMC minutes. Other factors driving the market higher today are especially strong crude oil price move (+5.2%), strength in Apple AAPL +2%, AMZN has turn from negative  to positive ,semiconductor ETF SMH +2.68%, Oil stock ETF OIH +2.76%, social media ETF SOCl +2.47%. Market is not likely to change direction this late of the trading day, more upside is likely towards the close. 

美股上升但是谨慎的时候了 Market Is Up But It's Time To Be Cautious

今天上午主要股指已经经历了上涨，下跌和上涨的周期，现在正在上涨。道指，标准普尔500指数，纳斯达克指数和罗素2000指数分别上涨0.55％，0.50％，0.85％和0.56％。强劲的石油，半导体，零售和社交媒体类股正在推动整体市场向上。主要市场指数正走向它们的50天移动平均线水平。它们是道指24451，标准普尔500 2637，纳斯达克7013和罗素2000 1456. 在6959，纳斯达克仅0.7％低于它的50日均线。由于50天移动平均线是指数上升趋势和下降趋的临界线，所以这是一个非常重要的水平。通常交易者在指数接近这些水平时会非常谨慎而卖股，特别是在从底部上涨超过10％之后。在达到这些水平之前卖出部分或全部多头头寸是明智的。尽管这样说，zerohedge.com援引野村证券的跨资产策略师Charlie McElligott的话说，”由于资金普遍在股票投资上的不足，在错过Beta领涨后将被“逼入”股市“。这可能会在各大指数突破50日均线之后发生吧。


This morning major stock indexes has gone through an up, down and up cycle and is now up. Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are now up 0.55%, 0.50%, 0.85% and 0.56% respectively. Stong oil, semiconductor, retail and social media stocks are driving the general market up. Major market indexes are on course to challenge their 50 Day Moving Average levels. They are Dow 24451, S&P 500 2637, Nasdaq 7013 and Russell 2000 1456. At 6959, Nasdaq is only 0.7% away. Since 50 Day Moving Average is the line dividing uptrend and downtrend of the index, so it's a very important level. Normally traders will be very cautious as the indexes approaching these levels especially after a more than 10% up move from the bottom. It would be prudent to get out of portion or all of the long positions before these levels are reached. That said, zerohedge.com cited Nomura's cross-asset strategist Charlie McElligott said widespread under-positioning in Equities which will be “forced-in” after missing this Beta-led rally.  Still, I would get out positions first and get back in when the 50 Day Moving Averages are broken to the upside. This may happen after major market indexes breaking out of their 50 Day Moving Averages.

早盘新闻汇编 Assorted Morning Market News

美中贸易谈判：
来自中国和美国的代表团周三结束了在北京举行的会谈。会谈时间超过预期。迹象显示在购买美国农场和能源商品以及增加进入中国市场的问题上取得了进展。

美联储官员鸽派的谈话：
圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长吉姆布拉德表示，如果加息周期持续，央行可能会推动经济陷入衰退。芝加哥联储主席查尔斯埃文斯表示，美联储可以等待并利用今年上半年观察美国经济情况然后决定利率政策。

 在北京的美中谈判时间延长使全球两大经济体解决贸易僵局更有希望，油价上涨2.5％。

日经亚洲评论的最新报告显示，苹果公司（AAPL）上周削减了其季度销售预测，已将其三款新iPhone手机的计划产量在1月至3月季度减少了约10％。 AAPL上涨1％。

亚马逊首席执行官杰夫贝索斯宣布与妻子离婚。 AMZN下跌0.5％。

美国股指：道指+70，标准普尔500 +2，纳斯达克+20，罗素2000 + 1

强势行业：SMH，OIH，XRT，SOCL

国际股票市场：上海+ 0.71％，日本+ 1.10％，香港+ 2.27％，德国+ 0.66％，英国+ 0.7％，法国+ 0.84％.tandoff。

日经亚洲评论的最新报告显示，苹果公司（AAPL）上周削减了其季度销售预测，并已将其三款新iPhone手机的计划产量在1月至3月季度减少了约10％。 AAPL上涨1％。

亚马逊首席执行官杰夫贝佐宣布与妻子离婚。 AMZN下跌0.5％。

美国股票指数：道指+92，标准普尔500 +6，纳斯达克+36，罗素2000 + 6

强势行业：SMH，OIH，XRT，SOCL

国际股市：上海+ 0.71％，日本+ 1.10％，香港+ 2.27％，德国+ 0.66％，英国+ 0.7％，法国+ 0.84％。


US-China trade talks:
Delegations from China and the U.S. ended talks that had lasted longer than expected in Beijing on Wednesday amid signs of progress on issues including purchases of U.S. farm and energy commodities and increased access to China’s markets.

More dovish talks by Federal Reserve presidents:
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said the central bank could push the economy into recession if it persists with the rate hike cycle. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said The Federal Reserve can wait and use the first half of this year to observe economic development before deciding interest rate policy.

Oil prices climbed 2.5 percent on Wednesday as the extension of U.S.-China talks in Beijing raised hopes that the world’s two largest economies would resolve their trade standoff.

The latest report from the Nikkei Asian Review suggests Apple (AAPL), which slashed its quarterly sales forecast last week, has reduced planned production for its three new iPhone models by about 10% for the January-March quarter. AAPL is up 1%.

Amazon.com CEO Jeff Bezos announced divorcing his wife. AMZN is down 0.5%.

US stock indexes: Dow +92, S&P 500 +6, Nasdaq +36, Russell 2000 +6

Strong sectors: SMH, OIH, XRT, SOCL

International stock markets: Shanghai +0.71%, Japan +1.10%, Hong Kong +2.27%, Germany +0.66%, Britain +0.7%, France +0.84%.

小心，重大技术性阻力在前面 Beware, Major Technical Resistance Ahead

美股各大指数继续走高而向上挑战50日均线的机会大。 它们是道指 24470，标普500 2639， 纳指7020及罗素2000 1457。以它们现在的水平来看，只需1天的大升便到。各大指数的50天均线是非常重要的阻力加上它们也非常接近62%斐波那茨反弹水平而导至这个阻力更加难过。明日如果有美中贸易谈判的好消息而各大指数又升至接近这些水平的话，获利回吐卖压出现的机会大。尤其是标普500 指数从12月26日低位到今天已经反弹了近10%。炒家务须谨慎！

US major indexes continue to rise and there are good chance of them challenging the 50-day moving averages. They are Dow 24470, S&P 500 2639, Nasdaq 7020 and Russell 2000 1457. At their current levels, it takes only one day to get there .The 50-day moving averages of the indexes are very important resistances and they are also very close to their 62% Fibonacci bounce levels. And these will make the 50 day moving averages even harder to cross. If there is good news from US-China Trade talk tomorrow, and the major indexes rally close to these 50 day moving average levels, there will be a good chance of selling on good news. After all, the S&P 500 index has rebounded nearly 10% from the low of December 26 ,2018 already. Traders beware!

美股再度攀升 Market Is Having A Second Wind Rally

在开盘时飙升，之后转为正为负，现在再次反弹，主要市场指数正在第二次上涨。罗素2000和纳斯达克综合指数领先，现在分别回升至50％斐波那契反弹水平1410和6840之上。道指和标准普尔500指数也分别逼近它们的50％斐波那契反弹水平23865和2573水平。道指，标准普尔500指数，纳斯达克指数和罗素2000指数现在分别上涨187,14,43和14.7。

苹果AAPL现已从下跌转为上升1.67％。 FB，AMZN，BA，IBM，CAT，XOM和T的强势也支持市场。随着对美中贸易协议的乐观情绪增加，市场再上升的机会大。


After surged up at the open, turned negative and now is rallying again, major market indices are having their second wind up now. Russell 2000 and Nasdaq Composite lead the way and are now recovered above their 50% Fibonacci bounce levels 1410 and 6840 respectively. Both the Dow and S&P 500 are approaching theirs at 23865 and 2573 respectively. Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are now up 187, 14, 43 and 14.7 respectively.

Apple AAPL has turned from negative to up by 1.67% now. Strength in FB, AMZN, BA, IBM ,CAT, XOM and T are supportive to the market. Market sentiment is for the market to go up further as optimism on the US-China trade deal increases.

美股主要指数遇上阻力回落 Major US Stock Indices Hit Resistance And Retrace

由于对中美贸易协议持乐观态度，主要股市指数开市大幅上涨。 道指一度上涨超过300点。 此后市场回撤了大部分早上涨幅。

高盛预计半导体公司在2019年将是另一个充满挑战的一年，特别是在上半年。 半导体资本设备公司的负面影响会最小，因为股价似乎已经反影了利空。 半导体行业ETF SMH目前下跌1.50％。 其他行业，如生物技术，零售和金融业也在昨天强劲反弹后获利了结，现在它们都在跌。

从技术面来看，主要市场指数早些时候反弹到或接近它们的斐波那契50％反弹水平，现在则低于这些水评。 这些水平是强大的阻力并明显的受到尊重。 如要市场继续上行，这些水平需要克服。 这些水平是道琼斯23856，标准普尔500 2573，纳斯达克6840和罗素2000 1461。

Major stock market indices rallied sharply at the open on optimism of a US-China trade deal. Dow was at one point up more than 300 points. The market has since retraced most of its earlier gain.
Goldman Sachs expects 2019 to be another challenging year for semiconductor companies particularly in the first half of year. Firm is least negative on semiconductor capital equipment companies as the stocks already seem to be pricing in a down turn. Semiconductor sector ETF SMH is now down 1.30%. Other sectors such as biotech, retails and financials are also subject of profit taking after strong rally yesterday and they are also down this morning.

Technically, major market indices rallied pass or near their Fibonacci  50% bounce levels earlier and are now below them. These levels are strong resistances and are being respected. In order for the market to continue its upside move, these levels need to be overcome. These levels are Dow 23856, S&P 500 2573, Nasdaq 6840 and Russell 2000 1461.

星期二美中贸易谈判头条新闻 Tuesday‘s US-China Trade Talk Headlines

。美国与中国在北京举行的第二天贸易讨论延长至周二晚，一位消息人士诉路透社双方官员都表示乐观。

。道琼斯新闻报道称，美国和中国正在缩小贸易谈判的分歧。

。中国英文“环球时报”的高级编辑报道称：经过两天的艰苦努力，中美贸易谈判尚未结束。 我听说他们明天会继续。 这发出了一个信号：双方正在认真谈判，并努力解决他们之间的分歧。

。美国总统唐纳德特朗普在一条推文中表示与中国的谈判“非常顺利”。

。据路透社报导，周二早些时候，中国批准了五种转基因（GM）作物进口，此举被美国农业部门的一些人称为“善意姿态”，这可能会推动中国海外谷物采购，并缓解美国开放市场的压力 更多的农产品。转基因作物的及时批准是特朗普政府早在2017年贸易谈判中的要求。



。A second day of U.S.-China trade discussions in Beijing extended into Tuesday evening, a source told Reuters after officials from both sides expressed optimism.

。Dow Jones news reports that US and China are narrowing their differences in the trade talk.

。The top editor at China's English-language Global Times reported: China-US trade talks haven't concluded after two days of tough work. I heard they will continue tomorrow. This sends a signal: The two sides are in serious talks and working hard To solve the disagreements between them.

。U.S. President Donald Trump said in a tweet that talks with China are going "very well".

。Reuters also reported that Earlier on Tuesday, China approved five genetically modified (GM) crops for import, a move seen as a "goodwill gesture" by some in the US agriculture industry that could boost China's overseas grains purchases and ease pressure from the United States to open its markets To more farm goods. The timely approval of GM crops had been an early Trump administration demand in trade talks dating back to 2017.

有关中美贸易谈判的报导 Reports On US－China Trade Talk

美中贸易谈判今天在北京进行并将持续到明天。 这对美国股市来说是最重要的事件。 以下是几则关于贸易谈判的报告：

。美国总统唐纳德特朗普对与中国的贸易谈判持乐观态度。双方周一及周二将在北京举行旨在缓和贸易战的会谈。 特朗普周日表示，他最近和习近平主席讲话。 特朗普说：“我真的相信他们想达成协议。关税对中国的影响非常严重。”

。美国商务部长威尔伯罗斯周一预测，北京和华盛顿可能达成一项“我们可以忍受”的贸易协议。

。香港“南华早报”报道：
据一位与北京关系密切的香港学者劳伦斯·刘（Lawrence J. Lau）称，预计北京和华盛顿将在3月份截止日期之前达成一项“具体”贸易协议，以缓和世界两大经济体之间的贸易紧张局势.香港中文大学经济学教授，中国最高政治咨询机构前成员劳伦斯·刘（Lawrence J. Lau）上个月正确预测了中国国家主席习近平与美国总统唐纳德特朗普上个月在阿根廷会晤后将采取“休战”措施。刘说，习近平和特朗普之间达成的为期90天的到3月1日贸易战休战终止之前， “我非常有信心他们会想出一些东西”。“最后会有一些具体的东西......如果有妥协就不应该有任何[额外]关税。“

。中国外交部发言人卢康表示，两国特使将在周一和周二的会议期间进行“积极和建设性的讨论”。

。中国副总理刘鹤在中美贸易谈判的第一天出人意料地出现,尽管没有较高美国官员在场。分析师表示，这是中国对达成协议释出善意和承诺的表现。


US-China trade talk is in progress in Beijing today and it will last until tomorrow. This is the utmost important event for the US stock market. Followings are several reports on the trade talk:

。US President Donald Trump is expressing optimism about trade negotiations with China as officials are expected in Beijing for talks aimed at easing a trade battle. Trump said on Sunday that he spoke recently to President Xi Jinping. Trump said: "I really believe they want to make a deal. The tariffs have absolutely hurt China very badly."

。U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross predicted on Monday that Beijing and Washington could reach a trade deal that “we can live with.”

。Hong Kong's South China Morning Post reports:
Beijing and Washington are expected to reach a "concrete" trade agreement before March’s deadline to de-escalate trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies, according to a Hong Kong scholar with close ties to Beijing. Lawrence J. Lau, an economics professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong and former member of China’s top political advisory body, previously correctly predicted a “truce” would follow the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Argentina last month.“ I am pretty confident that they will come up with something,” Lau said, with the 90-day trade war truce agreed between Xi and Trump set to expire on March 1. “There will be something concrete at the end … and if there’s a settlement, there shouldn’t be any [additional] tariffs.”

。Envoys will have “positive and constructive discussions” during meetings Monday and Tuesday, said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang.

。Chinese VP Liu He makes surprise appearance on first day of China-US trade talks, despite absence of America’s heavy hitters. Analysts say China is showing goodwill and commitment to reach a deal.

主要指数继续上行模式的第二波涨势已开始 The 2nd Leg Of Continuation Up Pattern For Major Market Indices Has began

对美中能达成贸易协议的乐观态度，美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔对加息的温和立场，AMZN，AAPL，NVDA，MU和TSLA的利好消息，强劲的行业表现：IBB + 2.82％，OIH + 2.7％，XRT + 2.15％，IGV + 1.72％，FDN + 1.5％，SMH + 1.02％推动主要股指在上周五的大幅上涨后继续走高。 经短暂的初步疲软之后，主要市场现在已全部上涨。 以下是他们现在的表现：道指+65（+ 0.29％），标准普尔500 +14（+ 0.56％），纳斯达克+62.47（+ 0.9％），罗素2000 +17.39（+ 1.26％）技术上，目前主要指数正在进行继续上行模式的第二波涨势 。 主要市场指数下一个阻力水平为斐波那契50％反弹水平，它们是：道琼斯23856，标准普尔500指数2573，纳斯达克6840，罗素2000 1410。如果美国和中国达成贸易协议，主要市场可能会上去挑战他们的50天移动平均线水平，它们市道琼斯24522，标准普尔500 2645，纳斯达克7037，罗素2000 1461。

Optimism on possible trade deal between US and China,  Fed chairman Jerome Powell's dovish stand on interest rate hike, positive news on AMZN, AAPL, NVDA, MU and TSLA, strong sector performances: IBB +2.82%, OIH +2.7%, XRT +2.15%, IGV +1.72%, FDN +1.5%, SMH +1.02% are driving major indices higher following last Friday's big surge . Major market are now all up after brief initial weakness.  Following are their performances now: Dow +65 (+0.29%), S&P 500 +14 (+0.56%), Nasdaq +62.47 (+0.9%), Russell 2000 +17.39 (+1.26%) Technically, the 2nd leg of the Continuation Up pattern of major indices are now in progress. Major market indices are rallying towards their 50% Fibonacci bounce resistance levels and they are: Dow 23856, S&P 500 2573, Nasdaq 4840, Russell 2000 1410. If US and China strike a trade deal, major markets may go up and challenge their 50 Day Moving Average levels and they are Dow 24522, S&P 500 2645, Nasdaq 7037, Russell 2000 1461.

早盘新闻择要 Selected Morning Market News

。美国贸易谈判官员正在北京会见他们的同行。美国商务部长威尔伯罗斯告诉NBC，他看到 “很有可能得到一个中国可以接受的合理解决方案，我们也可以忍受并解决所有关键问题。”

。国外股市：德国-0.6％，英国+ 0.55％，法国-0.83％，上海+ 0.72％，日本+ 2.44％，香港+ 0.83％。

。Baker Hughes在其最新的每周调查中表示，美国钻井平台总数下降8至1,075。WTI 原油上升1.71% 到48.78.

。据Verge报道，亚马逊（AMZN）已售出超过1亿部采用亚马逊Alexa数字助理的设备。超过150种产品内置Alexa，超过28,000种智能家居设备与Alexa配合使用。AMZN ＋1.39%

。苹果和三星达成协议，让iPhone制造商在三星智能电视上发布iTunes节目。AAPL －0.44%

。Nvidia（NVDA）宣布推出NVIDIA GeForce RTX 2060芯片。 RTX 2060的当前游戏速度比上一代GTX 1060快60％，打败GeForce GTX 1070 Ti的游戏性。 BMO资本市场将美光股票（MU）评级从市场表现提升至跑赢大市。 BMO称MU已经见底。 BMO列举了升级的两个因素：估值和结构更有利可图的公司。 NVDA和MU分别上涨4％和2.7％。领先的半导体行业ETF SMH上涨0.9％。


。US officials are meeting their counterparts in Beijing this week. On Monday, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told NBC he saw “a very good chance that we will get a reasonable settlement that China can live with, that we can live with and that addresses all Of the key issues."

。Foreign stock markets: Germany -0.6%, Britain +0.55%, France -0.83%, Shanghai +0.72%, Japan +2.44%, Hong Kong +0.83%.

。The total count of active drilling rigs in the U.S. drops by 8 to 1,075, Baker Hughes says in its latest weekly survey. WTI crude is up 1.71% to $48.78.

。The Verge reports more than 100M devices featuring Amazon.com's (AMZN) Alexa digital assistant have been sold . More than 150 products have Alexa built in, and more than 28,000 smart home devices work with Alexa. AMZN +1.39%.

。Apple and Samsung struck a deal that lets the iPhone maker distribute iTunes shows on Samsung smart TVs. AAPL -0.44%

。Nvidia (NVDA) announced the NVIDIA GeForce RTX 2060 chip . The RTX 2060 is 60% faster on current titles than the prior-generation GTX 1060 and beats the gameplay of the GeForce GTX 1070 Ti. BMO Capital Markets upgraded Micron stock to outperform from market BMO said MU have bottomed out. BMO cited two factors for the upgrade: “valuation and a structurally more profitable company.” NVDA and MU are up 4% and 2.7% respectively. The are leading the semiconductor sector ETF SMH up by 0.9%.

2018年的赢家和输家 Winners And Losers Of 2018

转载自Visualcapitalist.com        From Visualcapitalist.com

那些高市值的科技龙头股值得短期炒涨 Large Cap Tech Stocks That's Worth Trading Up

我建立了下表对高科技大盘股（资本金超过100亿美元）进行了比较。从这张表中我们可以看到，IBM，AAPL，FB，NFLX和AMZN从历史高位已经下跌了20％以上，所以他们处于熊市中。而MSFT，CSCO，ORCL，GOOGL和INTC下跌不到20％，因此它们是处于修正区域。股息支付股票跌幅低于没有股息的股票（IBM除外）且PE较低（他们是MSFT，CSCO，ORCL，INTC和IBM）。令人惊讶的是，有股息及低PE股票的IBD累积/散发评级都很低。由于这些股票的累积/散发都是D-和Es，显示聪明的资金对这些低PE和股息支付股票还没感兴趣。IBD的另一个重要评份是综合评分。 分数越高，公司的基本面就越稳固。

具有不同目标的投资者会选择不同的股票。 对我来说，现在短期内可交易的股票是高PE股票如NFLX和AMZN，因为他们的累积/散发评级分别为B-和C（为列表中股票的最高）显示聪明的资金对他们感兴趣。事实证明，跟随聪明的资金短期内取得良好效果的机会大。另外NFLX和AMZN的综合评分分别是十分强劲的89及88。GOOGL也很有意思，因为它不是在熊市中，市盈率是合理的并且综合评分是强劲的92，加上累积/散发已经提升到D-（至少不是E）。


High tech big cap stocks (capitalization over $100B) are compared in the following table. From this table we observe that IBM, AAPL, FB, NFLX and AMZN are down from their all
time high by more than 20%, so they are in bear market. While MSFT, CSCO, ORCL, GOOGL and INTC are down less than 20%, so they are in correction territory. Dividend paying stocks
drop less than no dividend stocks (except IBM) and have lower PEs (they are  MSFT, CSCO, ORCL, ,INTC and IBM). Surprisingly IBD's Accumulation/Distribution ratings indicates smart money are not interested in these low PE and dividend paying stocks yet since their Accumulation/Distribution are D- and Es.   Another important rating from IBD is the Composite Rating. The higher the score the more solid the companies fundamental is.

Investors with different objectives will pick stocks differently. For me, stocks that are tradable to the upside short term are high PE stocks such as NFLX and AMZN, since their Accumulation/Distribution ratings are B- and C （highest in the table） indicate smart money are interested in them.  Following smart money has proven to get good results short term. In addition, the NFLX and AMZN scores are very strong 89 and 88 respectively. GOOGL is also interesting since it's not in bear market, PE ratio is reasonable and its composite ratings is very solid at 92, Accumulation/Distribution has lifted to D- (at least not E).


Sym       Price     %down     Forward     PEG     Dividend     Acc/Dis     Comp
                            from Hi    PE                                                                 rating

AAPL    148.26    -35%        10.13          0.94     1.97%         E                57
AMZN   1575.39  -23%        58.97          2.19     0                 C                88
FB          137.95    -37%        18.52          1.04     0                 D                74
GOOGL 1078.07  -17%        22.86          1.74     0                 D-               92
NFLX     297.57   -30%        71.47          1.67      0                 B-               89
INTC      47.22     -18%        10.33          1.07     2.54%          E                 95
MSFT     101.93   -12%        20.26          1.78     1.84%          E                 99
CSCO     42.92     -13%        12.97          1.93     3.08%          E                 73
ORCL     46.71     -13%        12.73          1.74     1.63%          D-               86
IBM        117.32   -46%          8.43           9.98     5.35%         D-                33 

                                                                                           

一周回顾与展望 Weekly Look Back And Look Ahead

上周回顾：

苹果公司警告第一季度营业额未达预期。 一周股价下跌5.1％，现在已经从历史最高点下跌约38％。

美联储主席周五发表讲话，他所说的被视为对利息温和，并对市场恐慌做出回应。

中国周五下调存款准备金以鼓励更多银行贷款，其最新政策举措旨在结束经济放缓。

非农就业人口总数增加了32万，远远好于预期的18万。

强劲的12月份就业报告，鲍威尔的宽松评论，中国银行存款准备金率下调以及对中美贸易谈判的乐观情绪推动美国股市大幅上扬。上周五涨幅为：道指+746.94 + 3.29％，标准普尔500指数+84.05 + 3.43％，纳斯达克指数+ 275.35 + 4.26％，罗素2000 +49.92 + 3.75％。


本周展望：

美中贸易谈判将于1月7日星期一重新开始，市场对达成协议的预期很高。在苹果公司营业额低于预期，中国和其他国家疲弱的经济数据导致市场混乱后，达成协议的需求迫切。

美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔周四将在华盛顿特区经济俱乐部午餐会再次发表讲话。他预计会重复对加息的耐性与灵活性的鸽派信息。

本周发布的经济数据包括：周一的服务ISM和工厂订单，周二的国际贸易数据，周三的FOMC会议纪要以及周五的CPI通胀报告。令人满意的数据可能会进一步推动股市走势。

第四季企业财报开始，投资者将密切关注企业盈利警告和Q4公司收益发布。盈利结果不需要特别好，只要令人满意市场就会有正面回应。本周盈利公布 - 周三：Bed Bath and Beyond，KB Home KBH，Constellation Brands STZ，Lennar LEN，Schnitzer Steel STZ，周五：Infosys INFY

从技术面来看，主要市场指数已形成看涨的继续上行格局，而这种模式的第二次上升的开始将很有可能推动市场走高。


Last week look back:

Apple warned on Q1 revenue miss. Stock dropped 5.1% for the week and is now off its all time high by about 38%.

Fed chairman spoke on Friday, what he said was perceived as dovish and responsive to markets fear.

China cut reserve requirements Friday to encourage more bank lending, its latest policy move aimed at ending a slowdown.

Total non-farm payrolls increased by 312k , much better  than expected 180k.

Strong December jobs report ,Powell’s accommodative comments, China's bank reserve requirement cut and optimism on US-China trade talk drove the US stock market up strongly.
Last Friday's gains are: Dow +746.94 +3.29%, S&P 500 +84.05 +3.43%, Nasdaq +275.35 +4.26%, Russell 2000 +49.92 +3.75%.

Next week look ahead:

US-China trade talk to re-start Monday Jan7, expectations are high that a deal will be strike after market chaos driven by Apple's revenue miss and weak China and other countries economic data urged need to compromise.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaks again Thursday at an Economics Club of Washington D.C. luncheon. He is expected to deliver the same dovish message about flexibility when it comes to policy and patience when it comes to raising interest rates.

Economic Data releases this week are: Services ISM and Factory Orders on Monday , international trade data on Tuesday , FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and  Friday’s CPI inflation report. Satisfactory data will likely help stock market further.

As Q4 corporate earning releases start, investors will be on the look out for earnings warning and Q4 corporate earning releases. Earning results don't need to be great as long as they are satisfactory in order to be positive for the stock market. Earnings release this week –Wednesday: Bed Bath and Beyond , KB Home KBH,  Constellation Brands STZ, Lennar LEN, Schnitzer Steel STZ,  Friday: Infosys INFY

Technically, major market indices have formed bullish Continuation Up Pattern and the start of the 2nd up leg of this pattern will likely drive market higher.

美股主要指数短期看涨 Major US Stock Indices Short Term Trends Are Up

在经历了1/4/2019的大幅上涨后，所有主要市场指数的短期趋势现在都是上升，因为它们都形成了看涨的继续续上行模式。 最乐观的预测是主要市场指数向上挑战它们的50日移动平均线。 但他们在上升过程中会经历许多阻力。

After big up move of 1/4/2019, short term trend for all major market indices are now up since they all formed bullish Continuation Up Pattern. The most optimistic projection is that major market indices will challenge their 50 Day Moving Averages. But this require them to go through many resistances along the way.

标准普尔500指数的中长期趋势仍在下行。 由于看涨的继续续上行模式已经形成，短期很可能会继续反弹。 短期反弹目标如下：斐波那契的目标是2520,2573和2627。继续上行形态的第二站目标是2692。50日移动平均目标是2645。若要标准普尔500指数的中期趋势转升，它需要恢复到50日移动平均线2645水平之上。

S&P 500's  intermediate and long term trends are still down. Since a bullish Continuation Up Pattern has formed ,short term bounce up is likely. Short term bounce targets are as follows: Fibonacci targets 2520, 2573 and 2627. 2nd leg of Continuation Up target is 2692. 50 Day Moving Average Target is 2645. For the S&P 500's intermediate trend to turn up,  it needs to recover above its 50 Day Moving Average 2645 level.

道琼斯工业指数的中长期趋势仍在下行。 由于看涨的继续上行模式已经形成，短期很可能会继续反弹。 短期反弹目标如下：斐波那契的目标是23350,23856和24361。继续上行形态的第二站目标是24339。50日移动平均目标是24522。若要道琼斯工业指数的中期趋势转升，它需要恢复到50日移动平均线24522水平之上。

Dow's  intermediate and long term trends are still down. Since a bullish Continuation Up Pattern has formed ,short term bounce up is likely. Short term bounce targets are as follows: Fibonacci targets 23350, 23856 and 24361. 2nd leg of Continuation Up target is 24339. 50 Day Moving Average Target is 24522.  For the Dow's intermediate trend to turn up,  it needs to recover above its 50 Day Moving Average 24522 level.

纳斯达克的中期和长期趋势仍在下行。 由于看涨的继续上行模式已经形成，短期很可能继续反弹。 短期反弹目标如下：斐波那契的目标是6687,6840和6994。继续上行模式的第二站目标是6961。 50日移动平均线目标是7037。若要纳斯达克指数的中期趋势转升，它需要回升至50日移动平均线7037水平之上。

Nasdaq's  intermediate and long term trends are still down. Since a bullish Continuation Up Pattern has formed ,short term bounce up is likely. Short term bounce targets are as follows: Fibonacci targets 6687, 6840 and 6994. 2nd leg of Continuation Up target is 6961. 50 Day Moving Average Target is 7037.  For the Nasdaq's intermediate trend to turn up,  it needs to recover above its 50 Day Moving Average 7037 level.

罗素2000的中期和长期趋势仍在下行。 由于看涨的继续上行模式已经形成，短期很可能会反弹。 短期反弹目标如下：斐波那契的目标是1376, 1410 和 1444。继续上行模式的第二站目标是1416. 50日移动平均线目标是1461。若要罗素2000指数的中期趋势转升，它需要回升至50日移动平均线1461水平之上。

Russell 2000's  intermediate and long term trends are still down. Since a bullish Continuation Up Pattern has formed ,short term bounce up is likely. Short term bounce targets are as follows:
Fibonacci targets 1376, 1410 and 1444. 2nd leg of Continuation Up target is 1416. 50 Day Moving Average Target is 1461. For the Russell 2000's intermediate trend to turn up,  it needs to recover above its 50 Day Moving Average 1461 level.