Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Beware Of Chart Goes Vertical Up 当图形垂直上升时要当心

Apple (AAPL) has risen 50.12% since its March 23 low. Its V shape near vertical rise to near its all time high in just 2 months time is too much, too fast. It would be tough for it to go through the previous top without any pull back. A Double Top looks likely to form in the near term and a correction will ensue. AAPL's valuation metrics are all too high: Its 21.57 Forward PE is the highest since 9/30/2008. Its 5.38 Price /Sale is the highest since 12/31/2007. Its 17.60 Price/Book is the highest since 3/31/2006. Its 8.59 Price/Free Cash Flow is the highest since 6/30/2008.




Microsoft (MSFT) has risen 32.23% since its March 23 low. Its V shape rise to near its all time high in just 2 months time is too much, too fast. It would be tough for it to go through the previous top without any pull back. A Double Top looks likely to form in the near term and a correction will ensue. MSFT's valuation metrics are all too high: Its 30 Forward PE is the highest since 12/31/2017. Its 10.32 Price /Sale is the highest since 3/31/2006. Its 12.31 Price/Book is the highest since 3/31/2006. Its 14.68 Price/Free Cash Flow is the highest since 12/31/2006.





The Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ has risen 40.30% since March 23 low. Its V shape near vertical  rise to near its all time high in just 2 months time is too much, too fast. It would be tough for it to go through the previous top without any pull back. A Double Top looks likely to form in the near term and a correction will ensue.








自3月23日低点以来,苹果(AAPL)上涨了50.12%。在短短2个月内,其V形几乎垂直上升至接近其历史最高水平,上升太多,过快。要想在没有任何回落的情况下突破前一个高点将非常困难。短期内很可能会形成双顶看跌形态,随后将出现下跌修正。 AAPL的估值指标过高:其21.57前瞻市盈率是自2008年9月30日以来最高。它的5.38价格/销售是2007年12月31日以来的最高价。它价格/账面价值17.60是2006年3月31日以来的最高。它的8.59价格/自由现金流是自2008年6月30日以来的最高。





自3月23日低点以来,微软(MSFT)上涨了32.23%。在短短2个月内,其V形几乎垂直上升至接近其历史最高水平,上升太多,过快。要想在没有任何回落的情况下突破前一个高点将非常困难。短期内很可能会形成双顶看跌形态,随后将出现下跌修正。MSFT的估值指标太高:其30前瞻PE是自2017年12月31日以来的最高水平。它的10.32价格/销售是2006年3月31日以来的最高价。其价格/帐面价值为12.31,是2006年3月31日以来的最高。其14.68的价格/自由现金流是自2006年12月31日以来的最高。





自3月23日的低点以来,纳斯达克100 ETF QQQ已上涨40.30%。 在短短2个月内,其V形几乎垂直上升至接近其历史最高水平,上升太多,过快。要想在没有任何回落的情况下突破前一个高点将非常困难。短期内很可能会形成双顶看跌形态,随后将出现下跌修正。



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