There are numerous negatives for the stock market including: Market overbought; tech stocks are getting ahead of themselves and formed Double Top; retail investors rushing in chasing stocks is indicative of market top; LA county extend stay at home until august; second wave virus infections in other countries; increasing tension between US and China; economy is in recession and unlikely to have V shape recovery;S&P 500 forward PE at a high 22.5;National Debt highest ever, Buffet Indicator at 134 indicating stock valuation is too high; billionaire investors Warren Buffet, Leon Cooperman, Jeff Gundlach, Tudor Jones , Stanley Druckenmiller and David Tepper are all bearish; Goldman Sachs projects S&P 500 to drop to 2400; Bank Of America showed how the present market trend is similar to 1929 bear market, it has now finished a strong bear market rally and should now trending down. Technically, now the market down turn has started, major market indexes retracing 1/2 of the bounce from March 23 lows are likely. For the S&P 500, it would be down to 2574. For the Nasdaq Composite and Dow, they are 7940 and 21504 respectively.
。“While the economic response has been both timely and appropriately large, it may not be the final chapter, given that the path ahead is both highly uncertain and subject to significant downside risks,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in prepared remarks for a webcast event with the Peterson Institute for International Economics, noting that more needs to be done to sustain the economy. Powell added, however, the economy should see a substantial recovery once the coronavirus is under control.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said more measures likely will be needed to pull the economy out of its downturn. He did not specify what those measures will be but pointed to the likely need for more fiscal support from Congress. “While the economic response has been both timely and appropriately large, it may not be the final chapter,” the central bank chief said in prepared remarks. He also said negative rate is not being considered. ---CNBC
。Republican Senator Graham and GOP Senators have introduced a bill sanctioning China for human rights abuses and over its treatment of Uighurs. Republican senators proposed legislation that would empower President Donald Trump to slap sanctions on China if Beijing does not give a "full accounting" for the coronavirus outbreak. In other words, unless there was something lost in translation, Trump will have a carte blanche to sanction China on two account: the Uighurs and Beijing's secrecy over the origin of the coronavirus pandemic."The Chinese Communist Party must be held accountable for the detrimental role they played in this pandemic," said Senator Jim Inhofe, one of the sponsors of the "COVID-19 Accountability Act", adding that China's "outright deception of the origin and spread of the virus cost the world valuable time and lives as it began to spread." ---Zero Hedge
。Los Angeles County's stay-at-home order will likely remain in effect through July until early or even mid-August, public health director Barbara Ferrer said Tuesday. ---Zero Hedge
。House Democrats release their latest coronavirus relief bill as they try to blunt the pandemic’s effects on the economy. The chamber plans to vote on the legislation, which includes relief for state and local governments, direct payments and hazard pay for essential workers, on Friday. Republicans, who have downplayed the need for more immediate spending, are unlikely to approve the package in the Senate. ---CNBC
。Hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller told the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday tha said the risk-reward calculation for equities is the worst he’s seen in his career, and that the government stimulus programs won’t be enough to overcome real world economic problems. “The consensus out there seems to be: ‘Don’t worry, the Fed has your back,’” said Druckenmiller on Tuesday during a webcast held by The Economic Club of New York. “There’s only one problem with that: our analysis says it’s not true.” Prospect of a V-shaped recovery in U.S. ‘a fantasy,’ he says. Druckenmiller says stimulus programs aren’t building growth---Bloomberg
。Appaloosa Management founder David Tepper’s comments helped escalate a stock sell-off. The S&P 500′s forward price-earnings ratio based on estimates for the next 12 months has ballooned to above 20, a level not seen since 2002.“The market is pretty high and the Fed has put a lot of money in here,” Tepper said. “There’s been different misallocation of capital in the markets. ...The market is by anybody’s standard pretty full.” ---CNBC
美国主要股指开盘下跌，反弹，现在正在加速下跌至接近日内低点。在昨日科技股逆转引发市场美大跌后，美国股市连续第二天下跌。从3月23日底部开始的强劲反弹已经结束，市场再次开始下跌。股票市场有许多难以全列的不利因素，包括：市场超买；科技股上升过度并已造成双顶；散户涌进追涨股票是市场到顶的显示；洛杉矶县居家防疫将持续到8月；其他国家发生第二波病毒感染；经济正处于衰退中，不太可能V形恢复；美国与中国的关系继续紧张；标普500前瞻市盈率高达22.5；美国债务有史以来最高，巴菲特指标为134，显示股票估值过高；亿万富翁投资者沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffet），莱昂·库珀曼（Leon Cooperman），杰夫·冈德拉赫（Jeff Gundlach），都铎·琼斯（Tudor Jones）斯坦利·德鲁克·米勒（Stanley Druckermiller）和戴维·特珀（David Tepper）都看空股市；高盛预计标准普尔500指数将跌至2400。美国银行展示了当前的市场趋势与1929年的熊市如何相似，市场已经完成了强劲的熊市反弹，现在应该会再跌。技术上，现在市场既然开始下滑，主要的市场指数很可能跌回从3月23日的低点回升幅度的1/2。标准普尔500指数将降至2574。纳斯达克综合指数和道指可能跌到的水平分别为7940和21504。
。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在彼得森国际经济研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）网络直播活动的预先准备的发言中说：“尽管经济反应既及时又适当，但考虑到前进的道路既高度不确定，又有重大下行风险，这可能不是最后一章。”指出需要做更多的工作来维持经济。鲍威尔补充说，但是，一旦冠状病毒得到控制，经济应该会出现实质性复苏。鲍威尔表示，可能需要采取更多措施，才能摆脱经济低迷。他没有具体说明将采取哪些措施，但指出可能需要国会更多的财政支持。央行行长表还说，联储没有考虑负利率。 --- CNBC
。共和党参议员格雷厄姆（Graham）和共和党参议员（GOP Senators）提出了一项法案，制裁中国因侵犯人权和对维吾尔人的待遇。共和党参议员另外还提出了一项立法，如果北京不对冠状病毒的爆发进行“全面核算”，将授权唐纳德·特朗普总统对中国实施制裁。换句话说，特朗普将有专权以两个理由制裁中国：维吾尔人和北京对冠状病毒大流行起源的保密。”他们在这场大流行中扮演的角色，”COVID-19问责制”的发起人之一 参议员吉姆•英霍夫（Jim Inhofe）说，并补充说，中国“对病毒起源和传播的完全欺骗，使世界付出了宝贵的时间和生命。” ---Zero Hedge
。公共卫生主管芭芭拉·费雷尔（Barbara Ferrer）周二表示，洛杉矶县的“家居避疫”可能会一直持续到7月，直到8月中旬甚至是8月中旬。 ---Zero Hedge
。众议院民主党人发布最新的冠状病毒救助法案，以期遏制大流行对经济的影响。众议院计划在周五对立法进行表决，其中包括对州和地方政府的救济，对基本工人的直接付款和危险津贴。共和党人对立即增加支出的必要性表现低调，参议院不太可能通过计划。 --- CNBC
。著名对冲基金经理斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒（Stanley Druckenmiller）周二对纽约经济俱乐部表示，现在股票风险/回报是他职业生涯中最糟糕的一次，而且政府的刺激计划不足以解决现实世界的经济问题。 “市场上的共识似乎是：‘别担心，美联储会支持你。’” “唯一的问题是：我们的分析表明这是不正确的。” 德鲁肯米勒在网络广播中说。他说，美国经济将呈V形复苏的前景是“幻想”。德鲁肯米勒说刺激计划并没有建立增长。---Bloomberg
。阿帕卢萨管理公司（Appaloosa Management）创始人大卫·特珀（David Tepper）的评论帮助加剧了股票的抛售。 根据对未来12个月的估计，标准普尔500指数的前瞻市盈率已激增至20以上，这是2002年以来的最高水平。 特珀说。 “市场上存在不同的资本分配错误。 ……按任何人的标准来看，这个市场已达涨满水平。” --- CNBC
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