Stock Market Rally Cannot Last股市升势不能持续

Major US stock indexes opened strongly up and has been staying strong. Excited about Economic reopening is still the only thing cited for the rally. The surge in  newly opened retail stocks account may also supports the stock market. Nasdaq Composite Index has now recovered all its losses of 2020 and is now down only 8.62% from its all-time high. The big 5 stocks AMZN, AAPL, FB, GOOG and MSFT are now only down average around 5% from their all time highs.  However, the small cap Russell 2000 index is still down nearly 25% from its all time high. This is quite a divergence from the Nasdaq Composite, which index is right? According to Gary Gordan's recount " By the end of the second quarter, the economy will have recoiled at its quickest clip (-25%+) since the 1930s, Similarly, at the start of the year, unemployment for working-aged individuals was 3.5%. By the end of Q2, the official unemployment rate may spike as high as 20%". Again, there's big divergence between the stock market and the economy, which is right? Investors are emotional and market can be overshoot, I would contend that the stock market and economic divergence is not sustainable and  the stock market is going to come back down to match the economic reality soon.
The rally in big techs are crazy, the impact of COVID-19 can't  be ignore as if nothing has happened. Technically, the Nasdaq is currently facing resistance at March high at 9070 and technology stocks may soon lead the market to fall again. The S & P 500 resistance is still between 2900 and 2950 and the initial support level is 2664.

Initial Jobless Claims: -677K to 3.169M vs. +3.04M consensus, 3.846M prior (revised from 3.84M). Total job losses over past seven weeks are now over 33M, or more than 20% of the U.S. workforce. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 15.5% vs. 12.4% last week, another record high for the series. ---Seeking Alpha

About 350 of the S&P 500 companies have reported so far and first-quarter earnings are expected to have fallen 12.4%, with analysts expecting an earnings recession by the second quarter, according to Refinitiv data. ---Reuters

“When I think about the U.S. coming out of lockdowns, I think transmission across the country will be a big threat and I don’t know how it could be dealt with,” Dr. Ben Cowling, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong said. “If places come out of lockdown and have a low level of cases, but then there’s people coming in from the cities in large numbers often, even if only a tiny fraction are infected, that can still be the seeding for local outbreaks to start again.” The lack of federal leadership in lifting restrictions could create a situation in which states will need to lockdown again, said Yanzhong Huang, public health researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations. He added that as the population mixes, especially as people currently in states with heavy restrictions leave for more relaxed states, they could bring the virus with them, sparking local outbreaks in pockets outside of cities. ---CNBC

TD Ameritrade (NASDAQ:AMTD) disclosed a record 608K new funded accounts for Q1, as well as more than 3x the number of users in March Y/Y, while brokerages like Schwab (NYSE:SCHW), Fidelity and E*Trade (NASDAQ:ETFC) also reported record new users. Earlier this week, millennial-focused trading app Robinhood also closed a $280M Series F funding at an $8.3B valuation. In fact, finance apps have seen 55% growth in usage time from the end of 2019 to the week ended April 18, according to data from App Annie. ---Wall Street Breakfast

India is seeking to lure U.S. business out of China as tensions ramp up over Beijing's role in the coronavirus pandemic, Bloomberg reports. The government reached out to more than 1,000 companies in April, including Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) and Medtronic (NYSE:MDT), to offer incentives for manufacturers of medical equipment, food processing units, textiles, leather and auto part makers. Japan has also earmarked $2.2B to help shift factories from its neighbor, while EU members plan to cut dependence on Chinese suppliers. ---Wall Street Breakfast



美国主要股指开盘强劲上升，并一直保持强势。人们对经济重新开放仍然感到兴奋，仍然是这次反弹的唯一原因。散户新开股票帐户激增也可能是对股市的支撑。纳斯达克综合指数现在已经收复​​了2020年的所有亏损，与历史最高点相比仅下跌了8.62％。 5大股票AMZN，AAPL，FB，GOOG和MSFT现在仅比其历史高点平均下跌只有5％左右。但是，小盘罗素2000指数仍比历史最高点下跌了近25％，这与纳斯达克综合指数相去甚远，哪个指数是正确的？加里·戈丹（Gary Gordan）提醒我们：“到第二季度末，经济将以1930年代以来最快的速度回缩（-25％+），同样，在年初，劳动年龄的人的失业率为3.5 ％。到第二季度末，官方失业率可能飙升至20％”。同样的，股市与经济之间存在很大的差异。由于投资者情绪高涨，市场暂时的超升是可能的，但我认为股市和经济差异是不可持续的，股市将很快回落以适应经济现实。大型科技公司的攀升是非常疯狂的，COVID-19的影响不可忽略，不能好像什么都没有发生一样。纳指目前正在面对3月高位9070阻力， 科技股可能很快会带领市场再次下跌。标普500阻力 依然是2900到2950之间而最初的支撑位是2664。

。初请失业金人数：-677K至3.169M，而共识为+ 3.04M，上星期为3.846M（从3.84M修订）。过去七周的总失业人数现已超过3,300万，占美国劳动力的20％以上。经季节性调整的提前投保的失业率为15.5％，而上周为12.4％，为该系列的又一次新高。 ---Seeking Alpha

。Refinitiv的数据显示，到目前为止，标准普尔500指数成份股中已有约350家公司公布业绩，第一季度收益预计将下降12.4％，分析师预计第二季度收益衰退。 ---路透社

。香港大学传染病流行病学教授Ben Cowling博士说：“当我想到美国将走出封锁时，我认为在全国范围内传播将是一个巨大的威胁，我不知道如何应对。” “如果病例较少地方解封，但即使只有一小部分人被感染，但有很多人多感染的城市而来，这仍可能是当地再次爆发疫情的种子。”外交关系委员会公共卫生研究员黄彦中表示，在解除限制方面缺乏联邦领导可能会导致各州需要再次封锁的局面。他补充说，随着人口的混合，特别是当目前处于严格限制州的人们前往更宽松的州时，他们可能会携带病毒，在城市之外的地方引发地方性暴发。 --- CNBC

。TD Ameritrade（AMTD）公布了第一季度创纪录的608,000个新资金账户，以及是3月同比用户数量的3倍多，而嘉信理财（SCHW），富达和E * Trade（ ETFC）还报告了创纪录的新用户。本周初，以千禧一代为重点的交易应用程序Robinhood也以$ 8.3B的估值完成了$ 280M的F轮融资。实际上，根据App Annie的数据，从2019年底到4月18日结束的一周，金融应用程序的使用时间增长了55％。 ---Wall Street Breakfast

。据彭博社报道，由于北京在冠状病毒大流行中的作用加剧，紧张局势加剧，印度正在寻求将美国企业引诱出中国。政府在4月份与包括雅培（ABT）和美敦力（MDT）在内的1,000多家公司进行了接触，以奖励医疗设备，食品加工设备，纺织品，皮革和汽车零件制造商的生产商。日本指定了用$ 2.2B的资金来帮助工厂从中国转移，而欧盟成员也计划减少对中国供应商的依赖。 ---Wall Street Breakfast