Stock Market Is At Critical Juncture 股市正处于关键时刻

Major US stock indexes surged up at the open today as positive COVID-19 vaccine development news and encouraging talks from the Federal Reserve chairman during his CBS 60 Minute interview . The Dow, SP 500 and Nasdaq Composite  have been trending up all day and are now up on average about 3.25%. Major indexes have been up 3 days in a row after down 3 days in a row and are now back up to last week's highs. Whether the market's recent gain is sustainable depend on whether the indexes can break and stay above their resistances or not,  these resistances are  Dow 24765, SP 500 3000 and Nasdaq Composite 9250.  Today's market up move is a bit extreme as the New York Stock Exchanges has 91% stocks to the upside and up volume percentage is at 90%. Yesterday's Put/Call ratio was at a low level of 0.80 and today this ratio is most likely even lower. These extreme market internals  usually lead to market reversal especially as major market indexes are facing formidable resistances. Stock Market Is At Critical Juncture.

。Drugmaker Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) said its experimental COVID-19 vaccine showed promising results in a small 8 person early-stage trial. Stock surges 26%. ---Reuters

。Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said a US economic recovery may stretch deep into next year and a full comeback may depend on a coronavirus vaccine. “This economy will recover. It may take a while ... It could stretch through the end of next year . We really don't know, "Powell said in remarks aired on CBS's" Face the Nation "as part of a longer prerecorded interview to be broadcast Sunday night on the network's" 60 Minutes "news show." Assuming there is not a second wave of the coronavirus, I think you will see the economy recover steadily through the second half of this year. For the economy to fully recover people will have to be fully confident and that may have to await the arrival of a vaccine. " Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told “60 Minutes” that U.S. GDP shrinkage could be in the “20s or 30s.” He does not see the economy entering another Depression.
Powell said the country will get to “an even better place” than it was before the coronavirus hit, and that it “wo n’t take that long.”---Reuters, CNBC

。Confidence in the market for single-family, newly built homes rose seven points to 37 in May, according to the National Association of Home Builders / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).
Anything above 50 is considered positive, so sentiment remains in negative territory. The index stood at 66 in May of 2019 and hit a recent high of 76 in December. --- CNBC

。Huawei Technologies in its first official response to the Trump administration ’s move to curb its access to global chip supplies called it “arbitrary” and said its business would be impacted --- Reuters

。The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -42.8 percent on May 15, down from -34.9 percent on May 8. After this week's data releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -33.9 percent and- 62.8 percent, respectively, to -43.6 percent and -69.4 percent, respectively .--- Mish Talk




由于COVID-19疫苗开发的正面消息以及美联储主席在CBS 60 Minute采访中令人鼓舞的讲话，美国主要股指今天开盘飙升。 道琼斯指数，SP 500和纳斯达克综合指数均全天上涨，目前平均上涨约3.25％。 主要指数在连续三天下跌之后已经连续三天上涨，现在已经回到上周的高点。 市场近期的涨势是否可持续取决于指数能否突破并保持在指数的阻力位之上，这些阻力位是道琼斯指数24765，SP 500 3000和纳斯达克综合指数9250。今天，纽约证交所的涨势有些极端。 有91％的股票上涨，而看涨成交量的百分比是90％。 昨天的看跌/看涨期权比率有处于0.80的低水平，而今天这个比率很可能会更低。 这些极端的市场内在指标通常会导致市场反转，尤其是当主要市场指数面临强大的阻力时。股市正处于关键时刻。

。药品制造商Moderna Inc（MRNA.O）表示，其实验性COVID-19疫苗在一项规模为8人的小型早期试验中显示出令人鼓舞的结果。 股价飙升26％。 ---路透社

。美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）表示，美国的经济复苏可能会延续到明年，而全面复苏可能取决于冠状病毒疫苗。 “经济将会复苏。可能需要一段时间...可能持续到明年年底。我们真的不知道，“鲍威尔在哥伦比亚广播公司的电视节目《面对国家》中发表的讲话中说，这是更长的预先录制的采访的一部分，该采访将在周日晚上在该网络的“ 60分钟”新闻节目中播出。假设没有第二次冠状病毒爆发，我认为您会看到今年下半年经济稳定复苏。为了使经济完全恢复，人们将必须充满信心，这可能需要等待疫苗的到来。美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）告诉《 60分钟》，美国GDP缩水可能在20或30%之间。他认为经济不会陷入大萧条。鲍威尔说，美国将比冠状病毒袭击之前到达一个“更好的地方”，而且“不用多久”。---CNBC，路透社

。根据全美房屋建筑商协会/富国银行住房市场指数（HMI）的数据，5月份单户新建房屋的市场信心上升了7点，至37。任何高于50的点才被认为是正面的，因此情绪仍处于负面区域。该指数在2019年5月为66，在12月创下了近期高点76。 -CNBC

。华为技术公司在首次正式回应特朗普政府遏制其获取全球芯片供应的举动时称其为“任意”，并表示其业务将受到影响。

。2020年第二季度GDPNow模型的实际GDP增长估计值（按季节调整的年率）在5月15日为-42.8％，低于5月8日的-34.9％。美国财政部本周发布数据后美国财政部，美国劳工统计局，美联储理事会和美国人口普查局的数据，第二季度实际个人消费支出增长和实际私人国内国内生产总值增长的临近预期从-33.9％和-62.8％至分别为-43.6％和-69.4％.--- Mish Talk