Monday, May 4, 2020

Sell In May? 五月卖出?

Asian and European stock markets fell on Monday as an escalating war of words between top U.S. officials and China over the origin of the coronavirus fuelled fears of a new trade war.  Also depressing market is that Warren Buffett said he had sold all his airline stocks and said he is not seeing bargains in the market yet. Major US market indexes opened down and are now bouncing. Both the Dow and S&P 500 are down while the Nasdaq is up. Dow is hurt by RTX, BA , DIS andCAT while Nasdaq is being help by strengths in AMZN, AAPL, MSFT and FB .  All S&P 500 sectors are down except technology.  There is really no good news to drive  the market today, any bounce will likely get sold later.  Stock market usually go down in May. Technically, the S&P 500 failed to move above heavy resistance band 2954 and 3005 and reversed down last week. It has broken its up trend line and trend is now down. The two near term supports are 2664 and 2574.









。In Asia, Japan is closed. Hong Kong-4.2%. China is closed. India-5.8%.
In Europe, London is + 0.42%. Paris-3.91%. Frankfurt -3.05%.
Crude oil rose 0.1%. Gold rose 0.51%.
10-year Treasury yield +4 basis points to 0.646%

。Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Sunday stepped up administration claims that China mounted efforts to hide the extent of the coronavirus spread, including concealing the severity while stockpiling medical supplies. "You've got the facts just about right," Pompeo told ABC's "This Week" when asked if China intentionally stockpiled medical supplies in early January while it concealed the severity of Covid-19. "We can confirm that the Chinese Communist Party did all that it could to make sure that the world didn't learn in a timely fashion about what was taking place." Pompeo's comments come as the Trump administration is formulating a long-term plan to punish China on multiple fronts for the coronavirus pandemic, injecting a rancorous new element into a critical relationship already on a steep downward slide.---CNN

。An internal report presented to Chinese President Xi Jinping and other top leaders concludes that global anti-China sentiment is at a level not seen since the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, and recommends preparing for a worst-case scenario of armed conflict with the United States, according to Reuters, citing people familiar with the content of the document. ---Zero Hedge

。Crude futures were down earlier and have turn up modestly. Oil executives see signs that fuel consumption is starting to recover, but say it's likely to be a slow, painful process. "I believe we have seen the bottom," said Marco Dunand, co-founder of Mercuria Energy Group, one of the five largest trading houses. Traders feel the recovery in demand is likely to take more than a year before it reaches a pre-pandemic rate of about 100M bbl/day, though some say it may never reach those levels. ---Wall Street Breakfast

。“The next 2-4 weeks are critical for both the economic crisis and the health crisis,” said Marc Chaikin, CEO of Chaikin Analytics. “The biggest risk to the stock market is a premature reopening of the U.S. economy. If rising COVID-19 curves reemerge and economies are shut down again the damage to the stock market’s psyche will be dramatic.”---CNBC

。Last year I did a May revise with a $21.4 billion budget surplus," Newsom said on Friday during his daily coronavirus briefing, according to Bloomberg. "This year I will be doing a May revise looking at tens of billions of dollars in deficit. We just went tens of billions in surplus in just weeks to deficits." ---Bloomberg

。Wells Fargo started coverage on Qualcomm (QCOM) with an Underperform, $70 tgt, as they feel the company has now become a victim of its own success. That is, the need for anti-competitive regulatory compliance and an industry-wide reluctance to rely too heavily on QCOM's MSM processors and related RF front-end (RFFE) solutions could constrain QCOM's ability to take the market share necessary to grow in a stagnant and mature smartphone market.

MoffettNathanson downgraded Walt Disney (DIS) to Neutral from Buy; while Disney has the advantaged assets to win in this new world, firm fears that the uncertainty of the present situation creates significant and unrivaled earnings risk for the foreseeable future. ---Briefing






周一,亚洲和欧洲股市下跌,因为美国高级官员与中国之间就冠状病毒的起源而展开的口水战加剧了人们对新一轮贸易战发生的担忧。 沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)表示,他已经卖掉了所有航空公司股票,并且表示他还没有看到市场达到可买的价值,这也令市场感到沮丧。 美国主要市场指数开盘下跌,现在正在反弹。道指和标准普尔500指数均下跌,纳斯达克指数则上升。道指受到RTX,BA,DIS和CAT下跌的伤害,而纳斯达克则受到AMZN,AAPL,MSFT和FB的强势的帮助。除了科技技外,所有标普500指数板块均下跌。今天确实没有什么好消息可以推动市场,相信任何反弹都可能在晚些时候会被抛售。股市在5月份大多都下跌。 技术上,标准普尔500未能突破2954和3005之间严重的阻力带并在上周反转回落。 它已经跌破了上升趋势线,现在趋势看跌。 近期的两个支撑位是2664和2574。








。在亚洲,日本休市 。香港-4.2%。中国休市。印度-5.8%。
在欧洲,伦敦+0.42%。巴黎-3.91%。法兰克福-3.05%。
原油上升0.1%。黄金上涨0.51%。
十年期国债收益率+4个基点至0.646%

。国务卿迈克·庞培(Mike Pompeo)周日加紧了特朗普政府的指责,称中国加大了藏匿冠状病毒传播范围的努力,包括在储存医疗用品以掩盖病毒的严重性。当被问及中国是否在1月初隐瞒了Covid-19的严重性及中国是否有意储存医疗用品时,庞培在接受ABC的“本周”采访时说:“您有正确的事实。” “我们可以确认中国共产党已尽其所能,以确保世界没有及时了解正在发生的事情。”庞培发表上述评论之际,特朗普政府正在制定一项长期计划,对冠状病毒大流行采取多方面的惩罚措施,将一个邪恶的新因素注入已经急剧下滑的关键关系中。---CNN

。向中国国家主席习近平和其他最高领导人提交的一份内部报告得出结论,认为全球反华情绪已达到1989年天安门广场镇压以来的最高水平,并建议为与美国发生武装冲突的最坏情况做准备, 据路透社援引熟悉文件内容的人的话报道,。---Zero Hedge

。原油期货早些时候下跌,现在则温和上涨。 石油业高管看到了燃料消耗开始恢复的迹象,但表示这可能是一个缓慢而痛苦的过程。 “我认为我们已经见底了,”五个最大的贸易公司之一的水星能源集团(Mercuria Energy Group)的联合创始人马可·杜南(Marco Dunand)说。 交易商认为,需求恢复可能需要一年多的时间才能达到大流行前每天约1亿桶的速度,尽管有些人表示需求可能永远不会恢复到这个水平。 ---Wall Street Breakfast

。“接下来的2-4周对于经济危机和健康危机都是至关重要的,” Chaikin Analytics首席执行官Marc Chaikin说。股市面临的最大风险是美国经济过早重新开放。如果上升的COVID-19曲线重新出现并且经济再次关闭,那么对股市心理的损害将是巨大的。” --- CNBC

。去年我做了一个5月的修订,预算盈余为214亿美元,” Newsom在周五的每日冠状病毒简报会上说,“今年我将进行一次5月份的修订,着眼于数百亿美元的赤字。我们在短短几周内就将数百亿的盈余转为赤字。” ---彭博

。富国银行(Wells Fargo)以表现不佳的评级及70美元目标价开始对高通(QCOM)进行报道,因为他们认为该公司现已成为自身成功的受害者。 也就是说,需要遵守反竞争法规,并且整个行业都不愿过于依赖QCOM的MSM处理器和相关的RF前端(RFFE)解决方案,这可能会限制QCOM抢占增长停滞所必需的市场份额的能力。 和成熟的智能手机市场。

莫菲特·内森森(MoffettNathanson)将沃尔特·迪斯尼(DIS)从买入下调为中性; 尽管迪士尼拥有在新世界中获胜的优势资产,但公司担心当前形势的不确定性在可预见的未来会带来巨大且无与伦比的收益风险。 ---Briefing.com

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