Buffet To Trigger Sell In May 巴菲特将触发五月抛售

• 。“We have not done anything, because we don’t see anything that attractive to do,” said Buffett, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.Berkshire had a record $137 billion in cash and equivalent instruments by the end of March, according to the company’s latest 10-Q filing. Berkshire shareholders have been waiting for Buffett to deploy some of that cash, particularly after the coronavirus sparked a massive drop in stock prices.“We are willing to do something very big,” he said. But at the moment, “we haven’t seen anything that attractive.” Buffet had liquidated and sold the entirety of its equity position in the U.S. airline industry which included $6.5 billion worth of stock in United, American, Southwest and Delta Airlines.Buffett practically blamed the Fed, saying that "the Fed acted too quickly and too strongly for Berkshire to may any big deals right now." 
• Translation: according to none other than the most admired investor in the world, the Fed's unprecedented bailout of capital markets has not only disconnected prices from fundamentals but has led to a market so overvalued that there are still no bargains despite the recent crash (and subsequent dead cat bounce).---CNBC, Zero Hedge
• • 。in eight of the past 10 years, May has proved a losing month for stocks, currencies and local bonds . The uncertainty over the Covid-19 pandemic, a resurgence in U.S.-China tension and the collapse in corporate earnings merely makes the likelihood of declines this coming week all the stronger. Stock markets pared weekly gains on Friday while implied currency volatility jumped by the most in six weeks as President Donald Trump revived an attack on China, speculating it could have spread the coronavirus and threatening trade tariffs.
  • 。The great divide between finance and the economy rolls on. In the past 6 weeks, jobless claims have increased by 30 million, while the S&P 500 index has increased by more than 30%. That divergence between finance (stock market) and the economy was fueled by easy money. To be sure, policymakers kept official rates near zero for roughly half of the 130-month economic expansion. Artificially evaluating finance over the economy does not guarantee a recovery, while it can also lead to financial instability at some point as asset prices become unhinged to underlying corporate profitability. Cheap money can create the illusion of recovery, but a policy that results in more debt and inflated asset prices is not a bridge to recovery; it's another bubble. ---Joseph Carson, former Chief Economist of Alliance Bernstein
• 。The new coronavirus is likely to keep spreading for at least another 18 months to two years—until 60% to 70% of the population has been infected, a team of longstanding pandemic experts predicted in a report released Thursday. They recommended that the US prepare for a worst-case scenario that includes a second big wave of coronavirus infections in the fall and winter. Even in a best-case scenario, people will continue to die from the virus, they predicted. "This thing's not going to stop until it infects 60 to 70 percent of people," Mike Osterholm, who directs the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota, told CNN. "The idea that this is going to be done soon defies microbiology." ---CNN
• 。Roche Holding AG (ROG.S) received emergency use approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for an antibody test to help determine if people have ever been infected with the coronavirus, the Swiss drugmaker said here on Sunday.Governments, businesses and individuals are seeking such blood tests, to help them learn more about who may have had the disease, who may have some immunity and to potentially craft strategies to end lockdowns that have battered global economies.Roche had previously pledged to make its antibody test available by early May and to boost production by June to “high double-digit millions” per month.---Reuters
• 。China’s first-quarter total services trade fell 10.8% from a year earlier to 1.15 trillion yuan ($162.82 billion), according to the Ministry of Commerce. Services exports in the Jan.-to-March period declined 4.1% to 444.28 billion yuan while imports dropped 14.5% to 708.02 billion yuan, the ministry said on May 2. The narrowing of the trade deficit that started last year continues, it said. Knowledge-intensive services accounted for more than 40% of the total. ---Bloomberg
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• 。伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司董事长兼首席执行官巴菲特说：“我们没有做任何事情，因为我们看不到有什么吸引人的。”据伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司称，截至三月底，伯克希尔拥有1,370亿美元的现金和票据，创了历史新高，公司最新的10-Q文件中说。伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股东一直在等待巴菲特调配其中的一部分现金，特别是在冠状病毒引发股价大幅下跌之后。但是目前，“我们还没有发现任何吸引人的东西。” 巴菲特已经出售了其在美国航空业的全部股权，包括在美联航，美国航空，西南航空和达美航空中价值65亿美元的股票。巴菲特实际上也指责美联储，他说：“美联储行动太快，太强了，以至于伯克希尔现在无法达成任何大交易。”翻译：据世界上最受尊敬的投资者所说，美联储前所未有的对资本市场的救助不仅使价格与基本面脱钩，而且导致市场被高估，以至于尽管最近发生了大跌，但仍然不是好价钱（及随后的死猫式反弹情况）.-- CNBC，Zero Hedge
• 。在过去10年中的8年中，5月已被证明是股票，货币和本地债券亏损的一个月份。 Covid-19流感大流行的不确定性，中美紧张局势再度爆发以及公司收益暴跌仅使下周下跌的可能性变得更大。周五，股市缩减了上周的涨幅，而隐含的货币波动率则是六周来最大的涨幅，因为唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统恢复了对中国的攻击，猜测它可能传播了冠状病毒并威胁到贸易关税。
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。金融与经济之间的巨大鸿沟不断拉开。在过去的6周中，申请失业救济人数增加了3000万，而标准普尔500指数却上升了30％以上。金融（股票市场）和经济之间的差异是由宽松的货币推动的。可以肯定的是，在130个月的经济扩张中，政策制定者将官方利率维持在接近零的水平。人为地评估经济上的财务状况并不能保证经济复苏，但也可能在某些时候导致财务不稳定，因为资产价格对公司的基本盈利能力不利。廉价的钱可以制造出复苏的幻觉，但是导致债务增加和资产价格上涨的政策并非通往复苏的桥梁。这是另一个泡沫。 ---约瑟夫·卡森（Joseph Carson），前伯恩斯坦联盟前首席经济学家
• 。一支历史悠久的流行病专家小组在周四发布的一份报告中预测，新的冠状病毒可能还会继续传播至少18个月至两年，直到感染了60％至70％的人口为止。他们建议美国为最坏的情况做准备，包括在秋季和冬季爆发第二次冠状病毒感染。他们预测，即使在最佳情况下，人们也将继续死于该病毒。明尼苏达大学传染病研究与政策中心（CIDRAP）的负责人迈克·奥斯特霍尔姆（Mike Osterholm）对CNN表示：“这件事要等到60％到70％的人感染后才能停止。” “这一病毒即将完结的想法违背了微生物学。” ---CNN
• 。瑞士制药商罗氏控股公司（ROG.S）周日在此表示已获得美国食品和药物管理局（FDA）的紧急使用许可，可用于抗体测试，以帮助确定人们是否曾感染过冠状病毒。企业和个人正在寻求此类血液检查，以帮助他们更多地了解谁可能患有这种疾病，谁可能具有一定的免疫力，并可能制定策略以停止饱受全球经济打击的封锁。罗氏此前曾承诺进行抗体检测。将于5月初上市，到6月将产量提高到每月“高两位数的百万”。
• 。根据商务部的数据，中国第一季度服务贸易总额较上年同期下降10.8％，至人民币1.15万亿元（合1628.2亿美元）。商务部5月2日表示，1月至3月服务贸易出口下降了4.1％，至4442.8亿元人民币，而进口下降了14.5％，至7080.2亿元人民币。该国去年开始的贸易逆差持续收窄。知识密集型服务占总数的40％以上。 ---彭博
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