Tech Rally Is As Good As It Get 科技股升势已到尽头

Major US stock indexes opened up, quickly came down, bounced and are now coming back down. The market is relative quiet so far with the Dow trading in a 200 point range. Tech stocks are leading the market again. Apple (AAPL) has been up more than 1% a day for 7 days in a row and this phenomenon only happen once during the year 2000 tech bubble era.  After a 1 1/2 month continuous rally of 50% from its March bottom, AAPL at 318 is only 8 points away from its all time high at 326. It is very overbought and also in danger of a Double Top forming.  Microsoft (MSFT) rallied 42% in the same period is also near its top and is in the same saturation as AAPL. Technically, in theory when a stock dropped big and rallied inV shape all the way up to its original dropping point , the forming of Double Top is likely.  I believe the tech rally is now as good as it get, they are vulnerable for a downside correction. Meanwhile, all major market indexes are also overbought and near their key resistances at S&P 500 2957, Nasdaq 9315 and Dow 24764. Odd also favors  the market turning back down soon.

。April Consumer Price Index: -0.48% M/M in-line with consensus and -0.4% prior. Core CPI: -0.4% vs. -0.2% consensus and -0.1% prior. That's a record monthly drop for core CPI. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is now at 0.3%, vs. consensus of +0.5% and 1.5% previously. Core inflation on a year-over-year basis is now at +1.4% vs. consensus of +1.8%, and 2.1% previously.---Seeking Alpha

。Testifying virtually, Dr. Fauci delivered his opening statement, offering lawmakers a test of all the different efforts underway to find cures and vaccines. Notably, Dr. Fauci noted several caveats, one being that Gilead's remdesivir has shown modestly positive results, but hasn't yet been confirmed to be a 'game-changer'. Dr. Fauci also noted that some of the vaccine trials could cause harm to test subjects, while listing at least 8 vaccines (including Moderna's) in some stage of development. While he couldn't say much more at the moment, Dr. Fauci reiterated that he hopes to know more about the progress in developing a vaccine by late fall, or early winter. ---Zero Hedge

。Six locally transmitted cases reported in Wuhan, the original epicentre of the virus, has resulted in officials ordering the city’s entire population of 11 million people to be tested. In S. Korea,  a new cluster of cases linked to its capital’s gay nightclub district could be presenting authorities with a new problem.  Meanwhile the new cluster of cases has prompted a decision to push back the re-opening of schools by a week. In Russia a surge in cases has pushed the country’s tally of total infections to the third highest in the world, behind only the US and Spain. ---Robobank

。President Trump said he opposed renegotiating the U.S.-China Phase One deal, while Beijing announced a new list of 79 American products eligible for waivers from retaliatory tariffs. --Wall Street Breakfast

President Donald Trump on Tuesday again pushed the Federal Reserve to adopt negative interest rates, even as several members of the U.S. central bank have said they do not see a need for rates - now near zero - to move into negative territory. “As long as other countries are receiving the benefits of Negative Rates, the USA should also accept the ‘GIFT’. Big numbers!” he tweeted. ---Reuters

。"The recovery is going to be slow, with air traffic languishing at depressed levels for months,"  Boeing CEO  Dave Calhoun predicted, according to Bloomberg. When asked if a major airline would fold, he replied "Yes, most likely." He continued: “Something will happen when September comes around. Traffic levels will not be back to 100%. They won’t even be back to 25%. Maybe by the end of the year we approach 50%. So there will definitely be adjustments that have to be made on the part of the airlines.”---Zero Hedge

。UBS downgraded Chevron (CVX) to Neutral from Buy reflecting the share reaching near their price target and reflecting their 2021 scenario of an oil price recovery to $47.50/bbl.

。JP Morgan upgraded AbbVie (ABBV) to Overweight from Neutral. Overall, they see ABBV emerging as a far more diversified (and more broadly investable) story post the AGN acquisition with two major new launches (Skyrizi/Rinvoq) and Humira biosimilar risk appearing increasingly manageable.  -Briefing

。Citi raised its price target on Alphabet to $1,600 from $1,400. ---CNBC






美国主要股指开盘上升，迅速下跌，反弹，现在又再回落。到目前为止，道琼斯指数在200点范围内交易，市场相对平静。科技股再次引领市场。苹果（AAPL）连续7天每天上涨超过1％，这种现象在2000年科技泡沫时代只发生过一次。在从3月底开始连续1 1/2个月上涨50％之后，AAPL在318距离其历史高位326仅8点而且在非常超买的状态，有可能形成双顶形态。微软（MSFT）同期上涨了42％，也接近其最高点，并且与AAPL处于同超买状态。从技术上讲，理论上，当一只股票大幅下跌后以V形反弹至原始下跌点时，就有可能形成双顶。我相信技术反弹现在已经面临尽头，他们向下修正的机会大。同时，所有主要市场指数也都已经超买，并接近标准普尔500 2957，纳斯达克9315和道琼斯指数24764的关键阻力位。市场也接近下跌调整的时候了。

。4月份消费者物价指数：-0.48％环比，符合市场预期；之前为 -0.4％。核心CPI：-0.4％，共识为-0.2％，之前为-0.1％。这是核心CPI的创纪录的月度下降。与去年同期相比，整体通货膨胀率现在为0.3％，共识为+ 0.5％和之前的1.5％。与去年同期相比，核心通货膨胀率目前为+ 1.4％，而市场普遍预期为+ 1.8％，之前为2.1％。---Seeking Alpha

。Fauci博士发表了国会听证开幕词，向议员们提供了检验为寻找治愈途径和疫苗而进行的所有不同努力的检验。 Fauci博士特别指出了一些警告，其中之一是Gilead的remdesivir取得了适度的积极成果，但尚未被证实是“改变游戏规则的药。 Fauci博士还指出，某些疫苗试验可能会对测试对象造成伤害，现在在某个阶段发展中至少有8种疫苗（包括Moderna疫苗）。尽管他目前不能多说，但Fauci博士重申，他希望到秋末或初冬更多地了解疫苗开发的进展。---Zero Hedge

。武汉是该病毒的原始中心，据报道有六起在当地传播的病例，导致官员下令对全市1100万人口进行测试。在韩国，其首都同性恋夜总会区相关的一系列新案件可能会给当局带来新的问题。同时，新的案件集群促使决定将学校重新开放推迟一周。在俄罗斯，病例数量激增，使该国的总感染总数上升到世界第三位，仅次于美国和西班牙。 ---Robobank

。特朗普总统表示，他反对重新谈判中美第一阶段贸易协议，而北京则宣布了一份新清单，列出79种符合报复性关税豁免权的美国产品。 -Wall Street Breakfast

。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周二再次敦促美联储采用负利率，尽管美国中央银行的几名成员表示，他们认为不需要将利率（目前接近零）转变为负利率。他发了推文说“只要其他国家正在享受负利率的好处，美国也应该接受这个礼物'。大数字！”。 ---路透社

。据彭博社报道，波音公司首席执行官戴夫·卡尔霍恩（Dave Calhoun）预测：“复苏将是缓慢的，空中交通将持续数月处于低迷状态。”当被问及主要航空公司是否会破产时，他回答“是的，很有可能。”他继续说：“当9月临近时，将会发生一些事情。流量水平不会回到100％。他们甚至不会恢复到25％。也许到今年年底我们将达到50％。因此，航空公司肯定会做出一些调整。” ---Zero Hedge

。瑞银（UBS）将雪佛龙（CVX）的股票评级从“买入”下调至“中性”，原因是该股股价接近其价格目标，并反映了其2021年油价回升至47.50美元/桶的情景。JP Morgan将AbbVie（ABBV）的评级从“中性”上调至“增持”。总体而言，他们认为，收购AGN后，ABBV将变得更加多元化（且可投资性更广），其中有两个主要新产品（Skyrizi / Rinvoq）和Humira生物仿制药的风险日益可控。---Briefing

。花旗将Alphabet的股价目标从1,400美元上调至1,600美元。 --- CNBC