Conditions Look Ripe For Downside Reversal 下跌逆转条件看来已经成熟

After yesterday's over 3% surge, US stocks are trading flat now. AAPL, AMZN, FB, GOOG and MSFT are still strong and pulling up the Nasdaq Composite while weakness in HD,  PG, CVX, XOM, PFE, MRK and JNJ are dragging down the Dow.  Pharmaceutical/Biotechs and oil stocks are weak. Yesterday, Moderna's (MRNA) positive early stage test of a COVID-19 vaccine , Fed chairman Powell pledged continue support to save the economy and optimism on opening up the country's economy drove the market up sharply. The market's 3% surge yesterday was an overreaction as coronavirus vaccine is not expected to be available until next year; Fed's support of the economy is old news repeated and whether opening up the economy can be successful or not is still unknown.  Technically, major market indexes are facing formidable resistances at Dow 24765, SP 500 3000 and Nasdaq Composite 9315. With yesterday's put call ratio drop to  0.72, (an extreme level that usually time for market reversal) and 90% stocks advance and 90% up volume, conditions looks ripe for downside reversal.

                                                                  Source Finviz.com

                                                                   Source CNBC

                                                                Source Worldometers


White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Tuesday that President Donald Trump wants to see a 7.6% cut in the payroll tax, hoping it will help staunch economic pain caused by the coronavirus pandemic. “I know the president wants to see those folks that do back to work to get a 7.6% cut in their payroll tax, so their after-tax take-home pay goes up, "Kudlow said in an interview with Fox Business Network. --- Reuters

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Tuesday that he is continuing to see large unemployment numbers and other negative economic indicators during the second quarter, but the situation is expected to improve as the U.S. economy starts to reopen.---Reuters

In a sign of unity, France and Germany agreed to support a € 500B aid package to help EU regions and sectors hit hardest by the coronavirus pandemic. The announcement saw the euro climb 0.4% to $ 1.0955 as Chancellor Angela Merkel said the bonds issued by the European Commission would be repaid from the EU budget (most of which is covered by Germany). "The plan amounts to a historic step by Germany away from its long-held opposition to mutual debt to fund other EU member states," said analysts at Eurasia group. --- Wall Street Breakfast

One day after we showed that according to the latest Deutsche Bank monthly survey of Wall Street professionals the majority, or 59% of respondents, see the S&P either "lower" or "much lower" in three months than where it is now. This morning BofA also published its latest Fund Manager Survey, which polled 223 participants with $651BN in AUM, and which confirmed the conclusions from the DB poll, namely that the vast majority of financial professionals remain extremely bearish - and which likely means that stocks will keep rising as Powell will do everything in the Fed's power to avoid another crash. Indeed, as BofA's Michael Hartnett summarizes the zeitgeist, just 10% expect a V-shaped recovery, 25% a new bull market; in contrast 75% expect a U or W-shaped recovery, 68% a bear market rally.---Zero Hedge

Walmart (NYSE: WMT): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $ 1.18 beats by $ 0.09; GAAP EPS of $ 1.40 beats by $ 0.33. Revenue of $ 134.62B (+ 8.7% Y / Y) beats by $ 3.71B.

Home Depot (NYSE: HD): Q1 GAAP EPS of $ 2.08 misses by $ 0.18.
Revenue of $ 28.26B (+ 7.1% Y / Y) beats by $ 690M.

---Seeking Alpha

esla China registrations were plunging for April as a result of the coronavirus lockdown and a potential drop-off in demand. Registrations fell 64% year over year in April, according to LMC Automotive and Reuters. The numbers also fell sequentially, with registrations down to 4,633 from 12,709 in March. Corresponding data from the China Passenger Car Association shows that 3,635 Model 3 sedans were registered. --- Zero Hedge




经过昨天超过3％的飙升后，美国股市现在交易平淡。 AAPL，AMZN，FB，GOOG和MSFT依然坚挺，拉升纳斯达克综合指数，而HD，PG，CVX，XOM，PFE，MRK和JNJ的疲软拖累道指。制药/生​​物科技和石油类股疲软。昨日，在Moderna对COVID-19疫苗进行的早期试验的正面消息，美联储主席鲍威尔保证继续支持挽救经济，和对开放美国经济的乐观情绪导致市场急剧上升。昨天市场上涨了3％明显是过度反应，因为预计冠状病毒疫苗最早要到明年才能上市, 美联储对经济的支持是一再重复的旧新闻，而开放经济能否成功还是一个未知数。从技术上讲，主要的市场指数在道琼斯24765，SP 500 3000和纳斯达克综合指数9315面临强大的阻力。随着昨天的看跌期权/看涨期权比率下降到0.72（通常是市场反转的极端水平），90％的股票上涨和上涨股票交易量接近90％，市场下跌逆转条件看来已经成熟。

                                                        Source Finviz.com

                                                                  Source CNBC

                                                              Source Worldometers


。白宫经济顾问拉里·库德洛（Larry Kudlow）周二表示，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统希望将工资税削减7.6％，希望这将有助于缓解由冠状病毒大流行引起的经济痛苦。库德洛在接受福克斯商业网络采访时说：“我知道总统希望看到那些回去工作的人将工资税削减7.6％，所以他们的税后实得薪水会增加。” -路透社

。美国财政部长史蒂芬·姆努钦（Steven Mnuchin）周二表示，他将继续看到第二季度出现大量失业人数和其他负面经济指标，但随着美国经济开始重新开放，这种情况有望改善。

。作为统一的标志，法国和德国同意支持500B欧元的援助计划，以帮助受冠状病毒大流行打击最严重的欧盟地区和部门。欧元兑美元汇率上涨了0.4％，至1.0955美元，因总理默克尔（Angela Merkel）表示，欧盟委员会发行的债券将由欧盟预算中偿还（其中大部分由德国支付）。欧亚集团的分析师说：“该计划是德国摆脱长期反对共同债务以资助其他欧盟成员国的历史性一步。” ---Wall Street Breakfast

。根据德意志银行对华尔街专业人士进行的最新月度调查，大多数人（占59％的受访者）认为标准普尔在三个月内会比现在水平低很多。 美国银行今天上午还发布了最新的基金经理调查，该调查对223名参与者进行了管理，他们管理资产规模为6,510亿美元，该调查证实了数据库调查的结论，即绝大多数金融专业人士仍然极度看空-这很可能意味着股票将继续走高。联储主席 鲍威尔将竭尽所能避免再次崩溃，以保持不断上升。的确，正如美国银行（BofA）的迈克尔·哈特奈特（Michael Hartnett）总结，只有10％的人期望V型复苏，而25％的人认为有新牛市。 相比之下，有75％的人预期U型或W型复苏，而有68％的人认为只是熊市反弹。---Zero Hedge

。沃尔玛（WMT）：第一季度非GAAP每股收益为1.18美元，比上一季度增长0.09美元; GAAP每股收益为1.40美元，较上年同期的0.33美元有所增长。 $ 134.62B的营业额（+ 8.7％Y / Y）好于预期$ 3.71B。

Home Depot（HD）：第一季度GAAP每股收益为2.08美元，较去年同期下降了0.18美元。
$ 28.26B（+ 7.1％Y / Y）的营业而超过预期$ 6.9M。

---Seeking Alpha

。由于冠状病毒的封锁和需求的潜在下降，Tesla中国的四月份注册量急剧下降。 LMC Automotive和路透社的数据显示，四月份的注册量同比下降了64％。该数字也环比下降，注册人数从三月份的12709下降到4,633。来自中国乘用车协会的相应数据显示，共注册了3,635辆Model 3轿车。---Zero Hedge