S&P500 Back UP To Resistance Again 标普500重新回到阻力

Major US indexes opened up and continue going up driven by optimism on economy opening. WTI crude futures up over 18% to $24.10 per barrel. Stock market has been defying weak ISM Manufacturing and Service indexes ,extreme weak Q1 and Q2 GDP ( they are projected to be -8% and more than -30% respectively), most corporation gave up on making projection for Q2 earnings due to uncertainty and company bankruptcy news are heard everyday. This bad economy and good stock market divergence has to come to an end sometimes soon with the market go down with the economy. For now, at the beginning of the month, flooded with client money, equity funds are buying stocks regardless of market conditions and is supporting market, this may go away in a day or two. Technically, the S&P 500 are back up close to its heavy resistance 2900 to 2950 area again,  it is a reasonable area for the market to  turn back down.

。ISM's data continues to lag Markit's ：

Markit Manufacturing 36.1 (record low)
Markit Services 26.7 (record low)
ISM Manufacturing 41.5 (not record low due to supplier delivery times)
ISM Services 41.8 (lowest since April 2009 - finally caught down to reality)
---Zero Hedge

。For the second consecutive day, US equity futures rose on Tuesday, bolstered by continued gains in the price of oil which headed for its longest winning streak in nine months amid optimism demand is rebounding and the peak of the production glut is behind us, while a slew of countries eased coronavirus-led restrictions in an attempt to revive their economies bolstering optimism for recovery. ---Zero Hedge

。After a torrid 35% rally from the lows, equity markets appear to be taking their first real break. We continue to think 2650 (200-week moving average) on the S&P 500 will be vigorously defended, with the 2- month bear market having ending in March  while the 50-week moving average (currently 2992) provides resistance. ---Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley

。As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double from the current level of about 1,750. The projections, based on modeling by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now. The numbers underscore a sobering reality: While the United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks, not much has changed. And the reopening to the economy will make matters worse. ---New York Times

。Goldman further lowered its first quarter tracking estimate for the May 28th Q1 GDP revision by five tenths to -7.2%, roughly 50% lower than the -4.8% originally reported. Goldman expects the final vintage of the data to show an even larger decline of -8.2% (-0.5pp relative to our previous estimate of -7.7%), which would match the Q4 2008 drop when the financial system was on the verge of collapse. ---Zero Hedge

。Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) said there is “substantial doubt” about its ability to continue as a “going concern” as the coronavirus pandemic wreaks havoc on the industry. ---CNBC

。Both Salesforce (CRM) and Workday (WDAY) were initiated with Sell recommendations out of Rosenblatt this morning. SBUX +3.4% expects 90% of stores will likely be reopened in June .
Atlantic Equities downgraded Wells Fargo (WFC) to Underweight from Neutral as they see it now more likely that the company cuts its dividend. ---Briefing





美国主要指数在经济开放乐观情绪的推动下开高并继续上涨。 WTI原油期货上涨超过18％，至每桶24.10美元。 股市一直在抗拒ISM制造业和服务业指数创新低，第一季度和第二季度GDP的大跌（预计分别为-8％和-30％以上），由于不确定性大多数公司放弃了对第二季度收益的预测及公司破产新闻每天都在听到的坏情况。股市上升而经济下滑，这种糟糕的经济和良好的股票市场的分歧应该很快结束。 目前，在月初，股票基金充斥着客户资金，无论市场情况如何，股票基金都必要购买股票而导致市场得到支撑, 这种情况可能会在一两天内消失。技术上，标准普尔500指数已再次回到接近2900至2950的阻力位，这是市场止升回落的合理区域。

。ISM的数据继续落后于Markit的数据:

Markit 生产 指数 36.1（纪录低位）
Markit 服务指数 26.7（纪录低位）
ISM 生产指数 41.5（由于供应商交货时间而未创下新低）
ISM 服务指数41.8（自2009年4月以来最低-最终变为现实）
---ZeroHedge

。在油价持续上涨的支持下，美国股市期货连续第二天上涨。在乐观的需求回升以及产量过剩高峰已经过去的情况下，油价的持续上涨是九个月来最长的连胜纪录。许多国家放宽了冠状病毒主导的限制，以恢复其经济，从而增强了对恢复的乐观态度。---ZeroHedge

。在从低点飙升了35％之后，股票市场似乎正在首次真正突破。我们继续认为，标准普尔500指数2650（200周移动平均线）将受到大力捍卫，两个月的熊市已于3月结束，而50周移动平均线（目前为2992）提供了阻力。 ---迈克尔·威尔逊，摩根士丹利

。根据特朗普获得的一份内部文件，随着特朗普总统敦促各州重新开放经济，他的政府私下计划在未来几周内稳步增加冠状病毒病例和死亡人数，6月1日将为每天死亡约3,000人。纽约时报，从目前约1,750的水平几乎翻了一番。这些预测基于疾病控制和预防中心的模型，并由联邦紧急事务管理局（Federal Emergency Management Agency）以图表的形式汇总在一起，预计到月底，每天约有200,000例新病例，而目前为25,000例。这些数字突显了一个令人震惊的现实：在过去的七个星期中，美国一直处于低迷状态，但变化不大。重新开放经济将使情况变得更糟。 - -纽约时报

。高盛进一步将其对5月28日第一季度GDP修正的第一季度跟踪估计降低了十分之五，至-7.2％，比最初报告的-4.8％降低了约50％。高盛预计最后数据的将显示-8.2％的更大降幅当这一数字将与2008年第四季度金融体系濒临崩溃时的下降相当。 ---Zero Hedge
挪威邮轮公司表示，由于冠状病毒大流行对该行业造成严重破坏，对其能否继续作为“持续关注”的能力存在“很大的怀疑”。 --- CNBC

。挪威邮轮公司(NCLH)表示，由于冠状病毒大流行对该行业造成严重破坏，对其能否继续作为“持续关注”的能力存在“重大怀疑”。 --- CNBC

。Salesforce（CRM）和Workday（WDAY）被Rosenblatt调评级到卖出。SBUX 预计90％的门店可能会在6月重新开业。大西洋证券将富国银行（WFC）评级从“中性”降至“减持”，因为他们认为该公司现在更有可能削减股息。---Breifing