Bear Market Rally Is Over 熊市反弹结束

US stock indexes opened sharply down, bounced and are now going down again near today's lows. AMZN and AAPL reported earnings yesterday and both warned on Q2 prospects. AMZN is down over 8.40% while AAPL is  down 0.47%. The rest of the big five stocks FB, GOOG and MSFT are down 1.86%, 1.74% and 1.77% respectively. Another blow for the market is Tesla CEO twitted and said TSLA price is too high causing TSLA to go down over 11%. Other negative news are Trump threaten to raise tariffs on Chinese products, ISM Manufacturing index is the lowest since 2009 and Eurozone economy collapses. Now that major earnings are out and the S&P 500 has risen 35% from the March bottom, the bear market rally is over . Conditions are ripe for the market to go back down.  Downside targets using Fibonacci rules are 2663 (38% retracement ), 2573 (50%), 2483 (61.8%).

。The ISM Manufacturing index for April registered a 41.5% reading (Briefing.com consensus 39.0%), marking the lowest level since April 2009. The headline number was better than expected, but when you look within the report, it was mostly bad. ---Briefing.com

。Eurozone Economy Collapses 3.8% in the first quarter, the worst on record.  Spain (-5.2%) and France (-5.6%) GDP were much worse than Italy (-4.7%). ---Mish Talk

。Bloomberg reports that Trump is exploring blocking a government retirement fund from investing in Chinese equities considered a national security risk. Trump also accuses Chinese 'meddling' in the US election (obviously not in favor of Trump), the Chinese yuan legged dramatically lower in this evening's illiquid session which sees most of Asia closed for May Day. ---Zero Hedge

。Tesla CEO Elon Musk twitted  stock price is ‘too high,’ shares tank more than 7%。---CNBC

。One day after S&P downgraded Boeing to just one notch above junk, or BBB-, as a result of the company's massive debt load which was a record $38.9 billion as of the end of Q1... the Baa2/BBB- company added another $25 billion in debt to its balance sheet, effectively assuring that it will be downgraded to junk in the coming months. But what is fascinating is how easy it was for the soon-to-be fallen angel to issue the debt. ---Zero Hedge

。Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN): Q1 GAAP EPS of $5.01 misses by $1.10. Revenue of $75.5B (+26.5% Y/Y) beats by $1.41B. Total revenue in North America was $46.1B vs. $44.3B consensus, while international revenue was $19.1B vs. $19.1B. AWS revenue came in at $10.2B vs. $10.3B consensus. Amazon expects to spend entire $4 billion in Q2 operating profit on coronavirus-related expenses. ---Seeking Alpha, CNBC

。Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): Q2 GAAP EPS of $2.55 beats by $0.29. Revenue of $58.31B (+0.5% Y/Y) beats by $3.67B.  Tim Cook said "Soon, like within the next 1-2 weeks, we’ll open Austria  Europe and Australia, and I would say by the first half of May, somewhere in that ballpark, I think the initial stores in the U.S. will open, just a few, not a large number, and we’re going to look at the data and make a decision city by city, county by county, depending on the circumstances in that particular place. We probably won’t be the first to reopen probably anywhere."  “We’re not projecting what we’re going to do this quarter due to the lack of certainty and the lack of visibility that we got.” ---Seeking Alpha, ZeroHedge

。Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $4.17 beats by $0.42; GAAP EPS of $3.07 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $6.16B (+10.8% Y/Y) beats by $150M. ---Seeking Alpha

。Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.68 beats by $0.12; GAAP EPS of $1.22 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $5.55B (+5.1% Y/Y) beats by $110M. Multiple analysts downgrade GILD to Sell and Neutral. ---Seeking alpha

。Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.53 beats by $0.47; GAAP EPS of -$0.14 misses by $0.18. Revenue of $56.16B (-11.7% Y/Y) misses by $2.09B.

。Chevron (NYSE:CVX): Q1 GAAP EPS of $1.93 beats by $1.27. Revenue of $29.71B (-15.6% Y/Y) misses by $750M. Chevron warned on Friday that results will remain depressed as long as oil prices stay low, and said it was further cutting its 2020 capital spending plan. ---Seeking alpha, CNBC


美国各大股指开盘大幅下跌，反弹，现在又在下跌到接近今天的低点。 AMZN和AAPL昨天报告了财报，并且都对第二季度的前景发出了警告。 AMZN下跌超过8.40％，而AAPL则下跌0.47％。 五大股票中的其余股票FB，GOOG和MSFT分别下跌1.86％，1.74％和1.77％。 特斯拉的首席执行官对市场造成了另一个打击，他说TSLA的价格太高，导致TSLA下跌了11％以上。 其他负面消息包括特朗普威胁要提高对中国产品的关税，ISM制造业指数是自2009年以来的最低水平以及欧元区经济崩溃。 现在主要财报已经过去，标准普尔500指数又已较3月底上涨了35％，市场回落的条件已经成熟，熊市反弹已经结束。  使用斐波那契规则的标普500下行目标是2663（38％回撤），2573（50％），2483（61.8％）。

。4月份ISM制造业指数录得41.5％的读数（Briefing.com共识为39.0％），是自2009年4月以来的最低水平。该标题的数字好于预期，但当您查看详细时，多数情况都不好。---Briefing.com

。欧元区经济在第一季度下跌3.8％，是有记录以来最糟糕的。 西班牙（-5.2％）和法国（-5.6％）的GDP远低于意大利（-4.7％）。---Mish Talk

。彭博社报道说，特朗普正在已国家安全风险为有考虑阻止政府退休基金投资中国股票。特朗普还指责中国在美国大选中“干预”（显然不利于特朗普当选），人民币在昨晚的低流动性时段大幅走低。亚洲大部分地区五一劳动节休市。---Zero Hedge

。特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）推文表示，股价“过高”，股价上涨超过7％。---CNBC

。两天前标准普尔将波音评级下调至垃圾级以上高一点，即BBB-，原因是该公司的巨额债务负担使Q1季度末的债务总额达到创纪录的389亿美元... 这家Baa2 / BBB-公司昨日又增加了250亿美元的债务，有效地确保了未来几个月它将被降级为垃圾级。但是令人费解的是，这家即将成为堕落天使的企业发行债务是如此容易。---Zero Hedge

。亚马逊（AMZN）：第一季度GAAP每股收益5.01美元，低于预期1.1美元。 $ 75.5B（同比增长26.5％）的收入超过预期$ 1.41B。北美地区的总收入为$ 46.1B对$ 44.3B共识，而国际收入为$ 19.1B与$ 19.1B预期相同。 AWS收入为$ 10.2B，而市场共识为$ 10.3B。亚马逊预计第二季度将在冠状病毒相关支出上花费全部40亿美元营业利润。---CNBC，Seeking Alpha

。苹果（AAPL）：第二季度GAAP每股收益为2.55美元，比预期高出0.29美元。 $ 58.31B（+ 0.5％Y / Y）的收入超过预期$ 3.67B。蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）表示：“很快，就像在接下来的1-2周内，我们将在奥地利欧洲和澳大利亚开业，我想说，到5月上半月左右，我认为美国的第一家门店将开业，只是少数几个，不是很大，我们将查看数据并根据特定地点的情况，逐个城市，逐个县做出决策。在任何地方我们可能不会是第一个重新开放。” “由于缺乏确定性和缺乏可见性，我们没有计划本季度将要做什么。” ---Seeking Alpha，ZeroHedge

。安进（Amgen）（AMGN）：第一季度非GAAP每股收益为4.17美元，好于预期0.42美元; GAAP每股收益为3.07美元，优于预期0.07美元。 $ 6.16B的收入（同比增长10.8％）超过预期$ 150M。 ---Seeking Alpha

。吉利德科学公司（Gilead Sciences）（GILD）：第一季度非GAAP每股收益为1.68美元，好于预期0.12美元; GAAP每股收益1.22美元，小于预期0.03美元。 $ 5.55B（同比增长5.1％）的收入超过预期$ 110M。多位分析师将GILD评级下调至“卖出”和“中性”。 ---Seeking Alpha

。埃克森美孚（XOM）：第一季度非GAAP每股收益为0.53美元，好于预期0.47美元； GAAP每股收益-0.14美元，小于预期0.18美元。 $ 56.16B（年同比-11.7％）的收入低于预期$ 2.09B。

。雪佛龙（CVX）：第一季度GAAP每股收益为1.93美元，好于预期1.27美元。 $ 29.71B（年同比-15.6％）的收入低于预期$ 7.5亿。雪佛龙公司周五警告称，只要油价保持在低位，业绩将仍然低迷，并表示将进一步削减2020年资本支出计划。 ---Seeking Alpha，CNBC